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Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanDetrick
Chief Market Strategist at @CarsonGroupLLC ๐Ÿ”Ž for the perfect BBQ Host to the Facts vs Feelings podcast CNBC Contributor Portfolio Manager to +$8B in AUM
1.5K Following    227.6K Followers
Whoa
Goldman Sachs Panic Index had its largest 2-day spike IN HISTORY last week ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿ‘ป
420 advancers on the S&P 500 today, right off the upward sloping 200-day MA. Best breadth day since 11/25/2025.
Investors losing money in the stock market believe the game is rigged. But if anything, it's rigged to go up not down. Asset prices have always gone higher over the long-term even after bear markets and corrections, as @RyanDetrick explains on Full Signal.
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Good reminder that historically the best days happen very close to the worst days. If you sell right after the bad days, you will then miss the bounce back.
$HYG up nicely today and is now positive over the past month. Not what you'd expect if the world was ending. Remember, this bottomed right at 2pm on Thursday when all the hysteria was happening (even as stocks collapsed the final two hours).
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I didn't have $HYG up this week, but it was. Small positive sign?
So things have been pretty good the past two days since @DivesTech and I joined @CNBCMorningCall with @LesliePicker ๐Ÿ‚
Bull markets tend to go higher over time
Weโ€™re up since before Election Day
We've heard for a couple years now that AI would take all the jobs. Here's are four things to consider: โ€ขEmployers added 165,000 jobs in October, taking the three-month average to 137,000. Monthly job growth has averaged 86,000 this year, a significant recovery from the average loss of 7,000 jobs per month between May and December 2025. โ€ขThe unemployment rate is at a historically low 4.1%, and it's been below 4.5% for a record five straight years. โ€ขThe prime-age employment-population ratio is at 80.7%, higher than anything we saw in the 2000s or 2010s economic expansions. More people in their prime working-age years are working now than at any point during the last two expansions. โ€ขThe layoff rate (layoffs as a percent of the workforce) is just 1%, even lower than the 1.2-1.3% we saw in 2018-2019, when the labor market was exceptionally strong.
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AI has unquestionably been inflationary this year. So if all the building slows down, could that be a potential positive to the inflation backdrop? We've been on record the Fed would be significantly more dovish than what the Fed Funds Futures were pricing in and could this now say no more hikes?
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Last year, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, but if you missed the best 10 days that dropped to minus 9.5%. Since '90, stocks have gained 7.7% a year, but if you missed the 10 best days each year? It goes down to -15.4%.
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Guess who's back? Nice to see @callieabost is back to writing Optimistic Callie after a little break. ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡
Nice one from @awealthofcs on appreciation and expecting less.
๐Ÿ”ฅ note from @FrankCappelleri this AM. $GDX with a huge week, right at support. ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿฅ‡
How many economists does it take to change a lightbulb? ๐Ÿ‘‡ Two: One to change the bulb, and another to tell them they are doing it wrong.
Dan Clifton of @BairdStrategas is always great. Nice listen on TCAF with @Downtown and @michaelbatnick. I really liked these two charts. @TheCompoundNews
You Ainโ€™t Seen Nothing Yet ๐Ÿšจ On episode 267 of The Compound and Friends, @Downtown and @michaelbatnick are joined by Dan Clifton of @BairdStrategas to break down the post-midterm market chaos, the AI stock selloff, growing backlash against data centers, and why stocks could be setting up for a rally. Plus, the future of the Fed, oil prices, healthcare stocks, and what Washington's political shakeup means for investors.๐ŸŽ™๏ธ
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This is why slowing down AI buildouts is a big deal. A huge chunk of our economic growth the past seven quarters has come from here.
Real GDP averaged 2.3% annualized over the past seven quarters, with IT equipment and software investment contributing 0.91 per quarter, almost 40% of total growth.
Four years ago there was no such thing as a single stock ETF. Today there are nearly 600 of them.
Six midterms in a row now with a change in power in Congress. You have to go all the way back to 2002 the last time things stayed the same.
86k jobs created a month in 2026. One of our more contrarian calls has been the labor market would improve in H2 '26 and we continue to think the labor market is a bright spot.
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