3–7 years is my guess for when the current economic structure starts to break. And I suspect the type of change measured in very long cycles, like decades, not years. Opportunity is generally very high leading to those peaks. The hard part is removing yourself from the environment so you also focus on being well set and prepared for what could follow.

The transition from a bear to bull phase can be tricky to position for, especially when you don't get capitulation deep into a Cycles timing band. This is the case for Bitcoin currently. There are clear signs of a bottom with some confirming elements, but not definitive confirmation of a bottom yet. And even with a price low in place, the likelihood of chop or a retest of the lower regions is real. Investors who rode out the bear can still give a lot back as a market transitions. Based on what I'm seeing here, if I had a gun to head, I would say the price lows are in for Bitcoin. But it probably won't be as easy as that, meaning the market will likely need to shake out some of this early exuberance we're seeing on the feed. I'll record the next 4yr Cycle video later this week to discuss how I'm thinking about deploying the last tranche.

Checking in to say 👋 and hope the summer going well. Sad to see the coldcard hack. And lots of factors slowly starting to line up for a bitcoin low, but gee, so many accounts are so impatient. All the best everyone. ☀️