The model spreadsheet is always found here at bottom of page - For more ACTIVE spot allocations that follow the weekly timeframe, two videos a week cover these on

3–7 years is my guess for when the current economic structure starts to break. And I suspect the type of change measured in very long cycles, like decades, not years. Opportunity is generally very high leading to those peaks. The hard part is removing yourself from the environment so you also focus on being well set and prepared for what could follow.

The transition from a bear to bull phase can be tricky to position for, especially when you don't get capitulation deep into a Cycles timing band. This is the case for Bitcoin currently. There are clear signs of a bottom with some confirming elements, but not definitive confirmation of a bottom yet. And even with a price low in place, the likelihood of chop or a retest of the lower regions is real. Investors who rode out the bear can still give a lot back as a market transitions. Based on what I'm seeing here, if I had a gun to head, I would say the price lows are in for Bitcoin. But it probably won't be as easy as that, meaning the market will likely need to shake out some of this early exuberance we're seeing on the feed. I'll record the next 4yr Cycle video later this week to discuss how I'm thinking about deploying the last tranche.

Markets got me off the beach. :) Nice move by #Bitcoin# and crypto. Similar moves in metals. Obviously a lot of short covering off a 2 month consolidation, but bullish nonetheless. Little more work to do before a bear market bottom can be confirmed, and a new 4Yr cycle start. Closing out the month strong above (10 month MA) $74k first step, then a weekly close above the $82.8k highs swings the high TF trends back to bullish. Either way, very close now. Excited to get back to the desk in Sept.

Checking in to say 👋 and hope the summer going well. Sad to see the coldcard hack. And lots of factors slowly starting to line up for a bitcoin low, but gee, so many accounts are so impatient. All the best everyone. ☀️

2 yr leases - 0% increase. Imagine owning a building in a 4% inflation environment, in a city where rents are at record levels (cost of living) and you can’t raise rates for at least 2 more years. On top of this, if a tenant decides they don’t want to pay you, can take 2 years and a lot of legal to get them out. And you wonder why housing stock is tight and nobody wants to build housing. Real estate sucks, glad I got out of that game a while ago.

I like Nic and generally agree with a lot of his work, but I think he's using the wrong framework here. This isn't a CCC bond. It's a distressed special situations security. I've spent the better part of two decades in distressed credit and roughly the last 12 years buying distressed crypto. I've competed with or worked alongside many of the largest distressed investors. When I ask myself who the marginal buyer of STRC is today, it isn't a traditional high-yield fund. It's an opportunistic credit fund. Those funds don't wake up looking for 15% returns. They generally need 30%+ IRRs before they commit capital to something this uncertain. Today you can buy: • Government refund claims targeting 10-15% IRRs. • Distressed crypto claims with recoveries denominated in dollars and often substantial collateral protection for 20-25%+ IRRs. STRC is riskier than both. You're subordinated. There are essentially no meaningful lender protections. The dividend is non-cumulative. The collateral is one volatile asset. There is negative convexity. And unlike a traditional distressed loan, you don't control the collateral or have meaningful enforcement rights. This isn't lending against Bitcoin. It's taking directional Bitcoin exposure through a structurally weak preferred security. There's an important distinction people miss. Common shareholders have a fiduciary relationship with management. Creditors don't. Management's job is to obtain the cheapest possible financing for shareholders - not to create an attractive security for creditors. To Strategy's credit, they did exactly that. They issued extraordinarily issuer-friendly paper because the market let them. Good for them! But once that paper leaves the hands of income-oriented crypto investors, who is the next buyer? That's the question. I think it's an opportunistic distressed investor. And that buyer isn't showing up for a 15-20% required return. They're looking for something closer to a 30%+ IRR. At an 11.5% coupon, that implies a price of roughly $38.33 (11.5 ÷ 30%), versus about $76.67 for a 15% yield and $57.50 for a 20% yield. Maybe 30% isn't exactly the right number. Maybe it's 35%. Maybe it's 40%. But I think anchoring this off CCC spreads misses who the actual marginal buyer is.

All the Bitcoin and Crypto FUD flooding the timeline is perfectly normal at this stage of a bear market. Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either. What's far more likely dead is the future version of crypto you've been sold on social media.

Bitcoin sentiment is certainly at bear market low levels. Unfortunately, that condition can persist for some time. We’re getting closer, for sure. Little more patience, we’re in the early window, still favoring end of summer - early fall.

Just like all prior cycles. Current drawdown from 2022-26 crypto Cycle - ETH - 69% XRP - 71% LTC - 72% Link - 77% SOL - 79% SUI - 87% ADA - 88% AVAX - 90% Way oversold, due a bounce, but all potentially have up to 50% declines left in them this year.