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1/ How I infiltrated a Chinese organized crime syndicate that has laundered $1B+ across multiple exploits for Lazarus Group. Posing as a client, I gathered intel that helped action freezes for the Feb 2025 Bybit exploit and attribute illicit activity onchain.

Just 48 hours left on our annual membership sale at Bitcoin Live. 66% off the first quarter for new prospective members. 8 years of posting content through three bull/bear market Cycles. Content is for serious investors. LINK >

Interesting market. Stocks deep in their timing for a weekly cycle low, without being reflected in the index. Tech has held the index up. While most sectors have seen real selloffs (Financials, homebuilders, Consumer, transports etc) to Cycle Low Levels. Sentiment hit March Low levels! This is a setup for a big new advance higher.

To my long time silver friends, why Silver is more likely heading to $46 before turning bullish again. Silver blow-off moves take a lot of time to retrace and rebuild a base. And often the last weekly cycle from the blowoff phase has to be retraced, in this case to $46. From a trend perspective, this remains an intermediate time frame retracement from the January blow-off move. The arrows show the corresponding gold Cycle highs/low, which are in decline. And the next weekly cycle low is not due until the end of 2026. From past experience, Silver in a bull market offers one of the best opportunities to post significant portfolio gains. It's because when it goes into a parabolic advance, it's generally just one relentless and straight move up, allowing for good positions to sit tight in. But those parabolic moves are short-lived (6 to 12 months) and then it takes a long time for another such environment to build. I feel strongly that Silver will go through another such environment in the near future, but know that it's always a process.

Newbies and inexperienced traders/investors are so fixated on predictions that they have no idea what to do when the 50% of cases where they're wrong shows up. “But you said it was going to do #A# and it didn’t.” Well yeah. I also said it could do #B#, and sometimes #C#. Didn’t you plan or position for those outcomes too? Bitcoin recently is a good example. It didn’t follow through on my preferred path, which is just the one I thought was more likely. But so what? I still bought back a good amount at $64k after going 100% cash at $94k (avg), because guess what, option #B# possibility was gaining traction. That’s the point. It’s not about the prediction. Your social clout does not build your portfolio. Sadly, most inexperienced players can’t even make money when their prediction comes true because they’re so consumed with being right that they never properly think about positioning, risk, or what they’ll do next. “Oh, so you’re just covering every base. Could go up, could go down.” No shit. That’s exactly the point. I don’t want to be surprised. I want to be positioned to get the best possible outcome across all viable scenarios. Stop becoming so attached to one idea that you get trapped inside it. Think and trade in possibilities, be early enough and push harder when an outcome becomes clear. Yes, you’ll give up some upside to maintain that flexibility. That’s the cost. But you’ll still participate when you’re right and you’ll be protected when the market chooses one of the other paths. The goal isn’t to predict but be prepared to capture.

With the Sept monthly close, the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in. The slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47), and lack of deeper move in June/July sets up a possibility of a Cycle that could well (upside) surprise. Versus say the diminishing return idea. But, don't forget that new Cycles (in all assets) generally have one major shakeout, the type to give bears hope, one more time.

Such an odd market. There are big nuggets for both perma bulls and bears to latch onto, a perfect environment for fitting the market to your bias. (AI, Capex, Growth, Rates, Oil, Breadth) I like to approach markets like this with the fundamental belief that we simply cannot know what lies ahead, more so now than ever. Embrace the unknown and trust the trend for as long as it holds, but be quick to hunker down the moment it’s lost. And that might mean getting trapped occasionally. That’s the price of refusing to predict (and blindly hold to) what comes next.

I know there are plenty of high flying AI names to punt on, but $NVDA feels on the cusp of yet another expansive move. Yes it’s a $5T stock, so maybe the upside is “limited.” But hard to ignore the growth rate and dominance. I’d take a higher conviction double in a name like this over speculating on which smaller company will participate.

The AI slop replies are back in force. And they’re getting better at masking it. Also seeing massive follower growth on all accounts. Twitter has never felt so artificial because of this imbalance.

Stocks are or should be in their declining phase of the weekly cycle. Yet it remains extremely resilient, especially given weak seasonality (and mid term elections), yields and oil up too. Type of environment where you have to really fight a desire to have a bearish bias.

Critical spot for Precious Metals. Does it need to cool off for this weekly cycle (continue downtrend since the blowoff top) or has the secular bull market trend already resumed. Week 10 of the Cycle, typically around this point is where you see what type of Translation the cycle has. Currently showing a Week 6 high, which would stick as the high, if the downtrend from Jan is in control. Otherwise if the bull is back, we should see a sharp upside move take hold now. Cycles that are in transition (Intermediate downtrend within a secular bull trend) are difficult for this reason, and one must have a completely open bias to both outcomes. This area offers a good long setup with a tight stop, and if it breaks down further, a good spot to lighten up on long term exposure looking towards Dec/Jan to reload.

The model spreadsheet is always found here at bottom of page - For more ACTIVE spot allocations that follow the weekly timeframe, two videos a week cover these on