I’m at 10,000 feet, out of breath, holding a bag of Popchips that looks like it’s about to explode. I’m in Breckenridge for a wedding. This place was built in the ‘70s, it’s a ski resort, and it took hours to get up here. You sunburn fast. You lose your breath fast. And I absolutely love being here. But there’s a strange juxtaposition going on. Behind me is all this beauty. On my phone, a lot of people are reacting to ChatGPT’s Astra rollout with “Whoa, this is the beginning of the end.” So I’ve been sitting up here asking a different version of that question. Is this the beginning of the end of us being stuck in front of a computer all day? The beginning of the end of the kind of work we’ve historically had? I think so. I’m still an AI optimist. I still believe we have a chance to work with AI in a way that frees us up to go wherever we want, do whatever we want, and disconnect a little bit to enjoy nature. I also know there’s a lot of fear right now. And sometimes the best thing I can do when I’m not sure what’s coming next is get out in nature and do something fun. It’s a big world out there. This is Mike’s Thoughts From the Porch, recorded a long way from the porch. Are you scared about the repercussions of what’s happening with AI? Let me know in the comments 👇 #AIOptimist# #AIinMarketing# #FounderLife# #SocialMediaExaminer#

It is an interesting time to be an AI optimist and even more perplexing to be an AI bull. We are witnessing the diffusion and democratization of intelligence at an unprecedented rate. It will all but certainly transform the world and power economies for decades. If you have spent any time using the technology it is instantly evident how powerful and game changing it is. However, markets can be humbling. Right now we are in a tug-of-war between exponential growth and capital intensity. The Mag 7 is spending at a breakneck pace to position for long term viability and reduce existential risk to their business. And even with record revenue growth and great guidance, the market is calling its bluff. So what to believe when sentiment turns like it has in recent weeks? I believe we may see more downward pressure, but this is dislocation between the strength of the AI wave and the realities of the free cash flow crunch. The comparisons with the internet boom are largely a false flag. The adoption curve and demand for intelligence is nearly infinite and the growth of companies like Anthropic prove the demand continues to gain strength. This will continue to accelerate. The big question to ask is whether the thesis has changed and whether fundamentals have changed. In this case it is clearly a change in capital market structure and the impact is in the near term risk capital is nervous. I also think this market has presented more opportunity for long term investors and growth. Many great companies have lost a ton of near term value while fundamentals have improved. Hard to think that long-term minded investors won't do well buying strong performing names that are benefitting from the AI revolution. Next few months will be very interesting. I remain optimistic and bullish over the long term, but definitely believe sentiment has shifted bearish for now. Happy Sunday, Y'all.

To the people quitting their jobs and making proclamations of AI concerns, here is what you should ACTUALLY be sharing in your tweet. ⬇️ - how long you have worked in AI - of that time, how long you have been worried (and specifically about what? Misalignment? Bioweapons? International coordination?) - your magnitude of worry and why (including timelines, confidence scores, assumptions you’re tracking) - actual specific things that can go wrong (“kill us all” is the most vague panic-inducing option you have; your previous employer would not have hired you if that was your answer on AI risk examples - pretend you are getting interviewed because Anderson Cooper likely will do it anyways), you can hedge, you can say “and that’s just what we can imagine today” or “and that’s just with the next model family” but say a real thing that non-AI-pilled-superusers can actually picture - you need specific things you are calling for. Real action. A literal meeting is not enough. Your AI risk mitigation suggestion against “AI killing us all” needs to be more impressive than a parent-teacher meeting. Again, you are smarter than your current tweets and you are wasting your opportunity to drive change just like Hinton when he left Google. Examples include: environmental standards at data centers (air pollution, water quality), third party evaluators in labs, increased federal investment in open source, verifiable criteria to join early testing groups, whistleblower protections, required public risk disclosures before model releases, 3x minimum increase in federal renewables investment to catch up to China’s per capita spend, block chip exports to non-allies, highlight companies doing great AI safety work that more people should support, literally anything other than just “guys idk we gotta meet or something” - have a non-engineer review it - have a person not in tech review it - have someone outside of your generation review it - have at least one AI optimist review it - and this one may sound odd but I think you should read one war-time presidential speech before it You have an opportunity to do something deeply meaningful on your way out. That is more likely than not one of the reasons you joined your company in the first place. Tweeting vagueties and inciting panic contributes the opposite.

.@AndrewYang says a focus group killed his TV show because Americans are pessimistic about the future. @sophiadew says AI is making people in poorer countries feel the exact opposite: Andrew Yang: "They did a focus group and they said, hey, bad news, Andrew. People don't like the future. For the average American, they see the future and it makes them sad. And I'm going to suggest that a lot of them are correct." Sophia: "In poorer countries, people love AI. They believe it's an opportunity for growth, for education, for prosperity. If we expand our conversation beyond just America, people are actually feeling very optimistic." "I am an AI optimist because I don't like the problems in our world. I want cures to diseases. I want a better planet." Andrew Yang: "I am pro-innovation, pro-progress. I am not a shut it all down guy. The major challenge is to get the winners of this era to say, look, it's better outside the bunker. It's better not living in fear. I'm a come together guy. I'm a let's figure it out guy." @jubileemedia