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AI CONFERENCES AND INVESTOR DAYS, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2026 TODAY HON HAI PRECISION INDUSTRY CO INVESTOR DAY Fri Oct 30, 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM Taiwan time, Taipei, Taiwan Hon Hai Technology Day (HHTD26), October 30 to 31, 2026, Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 1. October 30 is the invitation only opening day, with registration from 9:00 AM and the keynote on AI and robotics from 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM on the main stage. October 31 is open to the public. Live streaming on the official HHTD site. Event site: • Setup: Foxconn is repositioning from assembler to AI platform company. Q2 revenue rose 41% year over year to TWD 2.53 trillion with net profit of TWD 60.0B, September revenue rose 38% to TWD 1.16 trillion on AI server demand, and third-quarter revenue, reported October 5, rose 47% year over year to TWD 3.03 trillion, above the TWD 2.83 trillion LSEG SmartEstimate, ahead of full Q3 results on November 12 • The number: Taiwan's largest GPU cluster, due in 2026 from as the group's NVIDIA Cloud Partner AI Factory, is the centerpiece claim to test • Why it matters: HHTD is where the AI server story gets product proof: the MODEL A launch, the IBM AI Factory partnership for Taiwan, the Foxconn and OpenAI work on US AI supply-chain manufacturing, plus SiC, LEO satellites and FoxBrain • Debates: How much value Foxconn captures beyond assembly in AI servers, EV timelines, and margin conversion as cloud and networking posts high double-digit growth • Watch: Partner appearances on the opening day stage, MODEL A specifics, and any capacity or US manufacturing commitments TOMORROW No tracked events tomorrow. REMAINING THIS WEEK No tracked events remaining this week. LATER • Tue Nov 3: PIC Summit Europe 2026, Eindhoven, Netherlands, Nov 3 to 4 • Tue Nov 3: DCD Connect Virginia, Leesburg, VA, Nov 3 to 4 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Connect Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Investment Forum Brasil, Sao Paulo • Wed Nov 4: Xcelerated Compute Show Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Thu Nov 5: Box Investor Day, San Francisco • Fri Nov 6: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Japan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Tokyo • Sun Nov 8: IEEE Photonics Conference (IPC) 2026, Denver, Nov 8 to 12 • Mon Nov 9: Entegris Investor Day, 1:00 PM • Tue Nov 10: Cohu Investor Day, New York • Tue Nov 10: Flex Investor Day, Austin • Tue Nov 10: WESCO International Investor Day, Data Center Deep Dive Day, 10:00 AM • Wed Nov 11: Munters Group Capital Markets Day, Stockholm, 8:00 AM • Thu Nov 12: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Taiwan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Hsin-chu • Sun Nov 15: Penguin Solutions at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Sun Nov 15: Supercomputing Conference 2026 (SC26), Chicago, Nov 15 to 20 • Sun Nov 15: Vertiv at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Tue Nov 17: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 China OIP Ecosystem Forum, Beijing • Tue Nov 17: TomorrowX Summit 2026, Austin, Nov 17 to 18 • Tue Nov 17: XTI Aerospace at 2026 ElevateUAV Summit, Florida City • Thu Nov 19: KVH Industries at CSN Greece ICT Conference, Athens • Tue Nov 24: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Europe OIP Ecosystem Forum, Munich • Mon Nov 30: NVIDIA GTC Washington DC, Nov 30 to Dec 3 • Thu Dec 17: Methode Electronics Investor Day, New York, 8:30 AM • Thu Dec 17: Onto Innovation Capital Markets Day, New York, 9:00 AM

AI CONFERENCES AND INVESTOR DAYS, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2026 TODAY DCD INVESTMENT FORUM MENA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION Tue Oct 27, Dubai, United Arab Emirates DCD Investment Forum MENA (DatacenterDynamics), October 27, 2026, Grand Hyatt Dubai, Dubai. Co-located with DCD Connect MENA. Part of the DCD Investment series. No public webcast. In-person event. Registration: • Setup: A one-day executive forum with 35+ speakers, convening C-suite operators, developers, lenders and investors active in MENA digital infrastructure deal flow. This is the capital side of the MENA buildout, as sovereign AI programs turn announced gigawatts into financed projects • The number: 2,500+ senior professionals expected across the co-located events, against a regional pipeline of 2.6 GW in development and 13.8 GW planned on roughly 1.6 GW live • Why it matters: Who finances the Middle East pipeline, and on what terms, decides how much of it gets built • Debates: Sovereign capital versus international project finance, power and grid access as the gating item, and phased 100 MW to 200 MW delivery versus gigawatt announcements • Watch: The opening macro panel on where MENA digital infrastructure heads next, and any named financing or partnership announcements CELESTICA INC INVESTOR DAY Tue Oct 27, 8:00 AM ET Investor and Analyst Day call, hosted by Chair and CEO Rob Mionis, with an in-person Lunch Forum following in Midtown Manhattan for institutional investors and sell-side analysts. Webcast: • Setup: Q3 results, reported after the close Monday October 26, beat the top of guidance: revenue rose 83% year over year to $5.83B against a $5.25B to $5.55B guide, adjusted EPS rose 109% to $3.30, adjusted operating margin hit a record 8.5%, and CCS revenue rose 102% to $4.87B. Management raised the full-year 2026 outlook to $21.0B of revenue and $11.55 of adjusted EPS, cut free cash flow guidance to $460M from $600M for targeted working capital investment ahead of 2027, and gave an initial 2027 outlook of $40.0B of revenue, up 90%, with a 9.0% adjusted operating margin and $21.50 of adjusted EPS on capex of $1.5B to $2.0B • The number: The $40.0B 2027 revenue target, well above the $35.7B analyst estimate reported ahead of the print, and whether the day substantiates it with contracted demand and 1.6T program detail • Why it matters: Celestica is the purest listed read on hyperscaler AI hardware demand outside the hyperscalers themselves, and the day is the first long-form test of the 2027 frame • Debates: Customer concentration, the cash cost of growth as working capital builds, and whether 9% margins hold as capacity capex rises • Watch: Q4 guidance of $6.275B to $6.575B of revenue, 2028 demand commentary (management said customer demand forecasts are meaningfully higher than the 2027 outlook), and 1.6T program updates MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL CO LTD INVESTOR DAY Tue Oct 27, 4:00 PM Taiwan time (4:00 AM ET) Third-quarter 2026 results webcast, hosted by Chairman and CEO Miin Wu and Vice President Paul Yeh, per the company investor relations calendar. Webcast via Macronix investor relations. Direct link unconfirmed. • Setup: The NOR flash maker is in a steep memory upcycle. September sales rose 188% year over year to TWD 8.37B and third-quarter revenue reached TWD 24.24B, up 27% sequentially • The number: Nine-month 2026 revenue of TWD 53.83B, up 155% year over year, already above the prior full-year record of TWD 50.57B set in 2021, with Q2 gross margin at 64.4% • Why it matters: Macronix is a clean read on legacy memory pricing power and how far the upcycle converts into durable margins • Debates: Whether pricing holds into 2027, and the return on the TWD 15.81B capacity budget approved in July, with new capacity due in 2027 • Watch: Q3 gross margin against the 64.4% Q2 mark, Q4 sales commentary, and capex timing GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC INVESTOR DAY Tue Oct 27, 7:30 PM ET, Las Vegas, United States Analyst Day held inside Connections 2026, October 26 to 29 at Fontainebleau Las Vegas, with more than 3,800 attendees expected. Webcast: • Setup: Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 23% to $1.48B and ARR rose 19% to $1.24B, with cloud ARR up 35% to 84% of total ARR and 62 core cloud deals signed in the year. The stock sold off on fiscal 2027 guidance in September and has been rebuilding into the day • The number: Fiscal 2027 ARR guidance of $1.45B to $1.46B, and whether the fiscal 2028 ARR figure near $1.7B is reaffirmed as a floor • Why it matters: Guidewire is the core-system standard for P&C insurers, and migration of its installed base to Guidewire Cloud is the growth engine • Debates: Roughly 125 on-premises customers still to migrate, the pace of cloud cohort expansion, and how fast agentic AI products monetize • Watch: Detail on the top 10 US carrier signed September 4 for Guidewire Cloud and PolicyCenter, set to become a top 10 customer by fully ramped ARR over a 12 to 18 month deployment, plus any multi-year target updates TOMORROW FIVE9 INC CONFERENCE PRESENTATION Wed Oct 28, Amsterdam, Netherlands ServiceNow World Forum Amsterdam, RAI Amsterdam, 8:30 AM to 6:00 PM. Free, in-person only, no digital edition and no public webcast. • Setup: Five9 and ServiceNow expanded their partnership in November 2024 around a turnkey AI solution joining ServiceNow Customer Service Management with the Five9 Intelligent CX Platform. Five9 exhibits and hosts a session, showing Five9 Fusion for ServiceNow, which puts voice and digital on one agent screen, with real-time transcription feeding Now Assist • The number: One agent screen for voice and digital inside ServiceNow, the core Fusion claim the team is demoing on the floor • Why it matters: Amsterdam is a live test of whether the ServiceNow channel converts into European contact-center pipeline for Five9 • Debates: AI agent deflection versus seat-based pricing pressure across CCaaS, and how much of the partnership is product versus go-to-market • Watch: Five9 session attendance and any named customer or expansion announcements out of the forum ORACLE CORP INVESTOR DAY Wed Oct 28, 10:55 AM CT, Las Vegas, United States Investor Day Meeting at Oracle AI World, live via the Oracle investor relations homepage. Webcast: • Setup: Q1 fiscal 2027, reported September 10, delivered revenue up 30% to $19.3B and cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.4B, and management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to at least $90B • The number: Remaining performance obligations of $664B, up $209B year over year and $26B in the quarter, against quarterly capex of $28.5B and free cash flow of negative $5.4B • Why it matters: This is the first long-form chance to test how the backlog converts, with 300,000 GPUs and 850 MW delivered in Q1 and utilization near 98% • Debates: Capacity delivery pace, margins and cash flow through a $90B to $95B fiscal 2027 capex plan, and customer concentration in the AI backlog • Watch: Any update to the capex or funding plan, RPO conversion commentary, and applications growth against the infrastructure story LTD INVESTOR DAY Wed Oct 28, New York, United States Investor Day at Elevate '26, the flagship conference, October 28 to 29 at the Javits Center, with a private investor Q&A with management. The opening keynote is livestreamed free at 11:00 AM ET. Keynote livestream: • Setup: Q2 revenue rose 22% to $365M and the company reconfirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.466B to $1.474B, even as it cut roughly 20% of headcount to fund the AI pivot and the stock sold off on the print • The number: AI ARR doubled from Q1 to Q2 and drove 17% of net new ARR, against overall net dollar retention of 109% with guided pressure in the second half • Why it matters: Elevate is where the AI workspace claim meets customers, around 250,000 of them, with every attendee building a working AI agent on site, across 200+ sessions and 150+ speakers • Debates: Seat and credit pricing for AI versus seat erosion, the enterprise mix shift, and the reported exits of AI, R&D and product leaders mid-pivot • Watch: Keynote product announcements from co-CEOs Eran Zinman and Roy Mann and CPO Daniel Lereya, any AI monetization metrics beyond the 17% figure, and investor Q&A tone on fiscal 2027 growth REMAINING THIS WEEK HON HAI PRECISION INDUSTRY CO INVESTOR DAY Fri Oct 30, Taipei, Taiwan Hon Hai Technology Day (HHTD26), October 30 to 31, 2026, with live streaming on the official HHTD site. Event site: • Setup: Foxconn is repositioning from assembler to AI platform company. Q2 revenue rose 41% year over year to TWD 2.53 trillion with net profit of TWD 60.0B, September revenue rose 38% to TWD 1.16 trillion on AI server demand, and third-quarter revenue, reported October 5, rose 47% year over year to TWD 3.03 trillion, above the TWD 2.83 trillion LSEG SmartEstimate, ahead of full Q3 results on November 12 • The number: Taiwan's largest GPU cluster, due in 2026 from as the group's NVIDIA Cloud Partner AI Factory, is the centerpiece claim to test • Why it matters: HHTD is where the AI server story gets product proof: the MODEL A launch, the IBM AI Factory partnership for Taiwan, the Foxconn and OpenAI work on US AI supply-chain manufacturing, plus SiC, LEO satellites and FoxBrain • Debates: How much value Foxconn captures beyond assembly in AI servers, EV timelines, and margin conversion as cloud and networking posts high double-digit growth • Watch: Partner appearances on the opening day stage, MODEL A specifics, and any capacity or US manufacturing commitments LATER • Tue Nov 3: DCD Connect Virginia, Leesburg, VA, Nov 3 to 4 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Connect Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Investment Forum Brasil, Sao Paulo • Wed Nov 4: Xcelerated Compute Show Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Thu Nov 5: Box Investor Day, San Francisco • Fri Nov 6: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Japan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Tokyo • Mon Nov 9: Entegris Investor Day, 1:00 PM • Tue Nov 10: Cohu Investor Day, New York • Tue Nov 10: Flex Investor Day, Austin • Tue Nov 10: WESCO International Investor Day, Data Center Deep Dive Day, 10:00 AM • Wed Nov 11: Munters Group Capital Markets Day, Stockholm, 8:00 AM • Thu Nov 12: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Taiwan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Hsin-chu • Sun Nov 15: Penguin Solutions at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Sun Nov 15: Supercomputing Conference 2026 (SC26), Chicago, Nov 15 to 20 • Sun Nov 15: Vertiv at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Tue Nov 17: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 China OIP Ecosystem Forum, Beijing • Tue Nov 17: TomorrowX Summit 2026, Austin, Nov 17 to 18 • Tue Nov 17: XTI Aerospace at 2026 ElevateUAV Summit, Florida City • Thu Nov 19: KVH Industries at CSN Greece ICT Conference, Athens • Tue Nov 24: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Europe OIP Ecosystem Forum, Munich • Mon Nov 30: NVIDIA GTC Washington DC, Nov 30 to Dec 3 • Thu Dec 17: Methode Electronics Investor Day, New York, 8:30 AM • Thu Dec 17: Onto Innovation Capital Markets Day, New York, 9:00 AM • Wed Dec 30: at AI Impact Summit 2026 • Wed Feb 3: AI Cities Zaragoza, Spain, Feb 3 to 4, 2027

AI Conferences and Investor Days — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 YESTERDAY: INVESTOR DAY TAKEAWAYS Marvell Investor Day (Oct 6, NYC) Replay via • FY28 revenue raised to ~$20B (from $18B), above $18.2B Street; data center alone near $18B • FY29 custom revenue raised to $12B (from $10B+), matching RBC's pre-event call • New FY2031 frame: $70-90B revenue (midpoint $80B) vs $46.85B consensus; adj EPS >$30; interconnect ~$37.5B framed larger than custom ~$30B • MRVL +5.8% to $287.01; 18+ analysts raised targets (Jefferies $450 Buy, Evercore $433) • Optical names rode along: Ciena +14%, Lumentum +3.8%, Coherent +1.5%, Broadcom +3.7% Zscaler Investor Day (Oct 6, NYC) Replay via • Guidance reaffirmed, not raised: FY27 revenue $3.908-3.938B (+16.6-17.5%), $10B ARR target with no date • Product push: Agentic SecOps (50+ AI agents), AI Gateway, Security for AI ~$70M ARR • ZS +2.9% to $207.79; no analyst revisions yet; stock -5.8% YTD • Read: narrative day, not numbers day; SASE competition question unresolved NEXT WEEK OCP Global Summit (Oct 12-15, San Jose McEnery) Sold out, no onsite; no public livestream announced; promo-code redemption expired Oct 6 • Lisa Su keynote confirmed Mon Oct 12, 4:15pm PT; NVIDIA keynote speaker confirmed (Ian Buck, Monday) • Lattice/AMI keynote Tue ~10am PT; OIF half-day workshop Tue 1-5pm PT (448G, CPO/NPO) • Wed networking track: Ultra Ethernet vs MRC panel (AMD/HPE/Broadcom/OpenAI), Bechtolsheim 400G/lane panel Workday Rising (Oct 12-15, Las Vegas) Digital passes now confirmed: All-Access $299, Essentials FREE; in-person $2,595 • Theme: agentic HR and agentic finance; Workday AI platform monetization read • Monness $218 Buy / Needham $230 Buy ahead of the event SEMICON West (Oct 13-15, Moscone SF) All-In $1,230, Thought Leadership $945, Expo Plus $340; no virtual pass • Ghazi fireside Tue 9:20am; design session Tue 10:30am-4:30pm PT (Cerebras CS-4/Nexus, Lam on agentic AI in manufacturing) • Equipment and advanced packaging checkpoint Applied Materials Investor Breakfast (Tue Oct 13, 8:00-10:30am PT) Free live webcast at replay same day • Watch for a firm 2027 WFE growth figure; Dickerson now sees CY26 WFE up >30% (was >20%) • Backdrop rich: Intel named founding EPIC partner Oct 6; UBS sees 2027 WFE +43%, memory equipment +53% Workday Financial Analyst Day (Tue Oct 13, 2:00pm PT / 5:00pm ET) Live webcast on Workday IR site, replay 90 days • Agentic HR/finance monetization read; partner announcements already timed to Rising Accenture Investor Day (Wed Oct 14, 8:30-11:30am ET) Virtual per IR events page; CEO's "see you in New York" suggests hybrid • Must answer the Oct 1 guide: ~1% organic (Stifel) vs 2% consensus; stock -6% to $200.34 Oct 2 • Watch FY27 organic growth bridge and AI metrics disclosure SailPoint Analyst Webcast (Wed Oct 14, 12:00pm ET, virtual) replay one year • Recap of Navigate announcements (Oct 6): Autonomous Agents, Agentic Fabric, Zero Standing Privilege • Not to be confused with Zscaler's similarly named products Semtech Data Center Teach-In (Thu Oct 15, 9:00am PT, San Jose) Limited in-person; live webcast at • 1.6T/800G and ACC ramp read; Q2 beat with Q3 guide $410M midpoint vs $357.7M consensus LATER NVIDIA GTC Berlin (Oct 20-22) Huang keynote Wed Oct 21, 11am-1pm CEST, free livestream • New: "NVIDIA GTC Live" pregame 9-11am CEST with Gavin Baker and Deirdre Bosa Oracle AI World (Oct 25-28, Venetian Las Vegas) New "Oracle AI World On Air" remote tier: 3 keynotes + 4 spotlights live, 90+ sessions on demand; price not yet visible • OCI GPU capacity and AI Database 23ai announcements; in-person $1,999 ($2,399 late) Celestica Investor and Analyst Day (Tue Oct 27, 8:00am ET) Webcast with replay ~2h after via Q3 results Mon Oct 26 post-close • Operations, strategy, growth, outlook; Midtown lunch forum for institutional/sell-side only NEW INVESTOR DAY • Hyperscale Data (GPUS) Investor Day, Thu Nov 12, 1:15-3:30pm PT, virtual: Michigan AI campus expansion and strategic alternatives; 2027 revenue guide $300-350M TBA list quiet: AMD Advancing AI, Snapdragon Summit, and OpenAI DevDay 2026 editions already happened; CoreWeave London still rescheduled to 2027; Nebius investor hub quiet.

AI slop is everywhere. 69% of AI users admit to shipping work they haven’t verified, don’t fully understand, or couldn’t confidently defend, according to @glean's Work AI Index. And even when AI output is factually correct, it can still be generic, too long, or clearly not written by a human. The deeper problem is what researchers call “mental proof”: visible evidence that someone engaged with the work, cares about the result, and understands the person on the other end. When work feels like slop, it erodes trust and relationships. This is hard to solve. At Glean, we’re still figuring out how to keep AI from making our internal communication longer, blander, and less human. A few principles guide us: - 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁-𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗔𝗜 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺. AI can help protect against slop when it understands the context around the work. It should match the length of a communication to its complexity. When communication involves a sensitive relationship, ambiguity, or higher stakes, it should recognize that more human judgment may be needed and prompt the user to pause or add humanity. - 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗔𝗜 𝘂𝘀𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝘀𝗮𝗳𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸. I try to model this myself, and push my team to do the same by saying something like: “This is too long. Please rewrite it more concisely.”  - 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝘁. Otherwise, it’s too easy to deflect responsibility to the AI. - 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀. If you measure vanity metrics like output volume instead of quality and outcomes, you’ll optimize for more output, even when that output creates more work for everyone else. More AI output does not create more value if people spend their time sorting through slop.

AI vs AI, the first shots The agentic attacker went from theory to headline. Hugging Face (@huggingface) says an autonomous AI agent breached its production systems, running 17,000+ actions over a weekend with no human at the wheel. It's being called the first confirmed AI-agent breach of a major AI platform. The entry point was a malicious dataset in its data pipeline. From there the agent escalated access, grabbed credentials, and moved laterally across internal clusters. Hugging Face fought back with its own AI, but the frontier models it first reached for locked up on safety filters. The attacker was bound by none of that.

AI startups are moving from fundraising headlines to product tests. Thinking Machines Lab @thinkymachines, founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, has released Inkling, its first open-weights AI model. The company says Inkling is built as a customizable foundation model. It can be fine-tuned through Tinker, Thinking Machines’ platform for adapting models to specific workflows. The next AI platform battle may not only be about who builds the most powerful model. It may also be about who gives companies more control over how AI is customized, deployed and used. Source: Thinking Machines Lab / WSJ

AI: Is the Bubble Actually the Flywheel? MIT economist Ricardo Caballero makes a fascinating argument in his recent working paper, Speculative Growth and the AI "Bubble": The real question is not whether AI is a bubble, but whether a bubble itself can create the fundamentals of the future. Traditional finance assumes that valuations are derived from fundamentals. Future cash flows determine today's prices. If prices rise far above expected cash flows, we call it a bubble. This logic underpins value investing, discounted cash flow (DCF) models, and much of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Caballero extends this causal relationship into a feedback loop. Prices do not merely reflect the future—they help shape it. High valuations increase firms' ability to raise capital. That capital finances investment. Investment builds productive capacity. Higher productivity eventually generates stronger future cash flows. In other words, valuations that initially appear detached from fundamentals can become part of the process that creates those very fundamentals. (This bears some resemblance to George Soros' idea of reflexivity.) The paper argues that whenever market valuations influence investment decisions, rising prices can actively help create future economic fundamentals. The key reason this mechanism may hold for AI is that AI is fundamentally different from traditional capital. Conventional capital is subject to diminishing returns. Build more factories, and eventually demand saturates, excess capacity emerges, and returns on capital decline. Caballero argues that AI is better understood as a form of scalable labor-like capital. GPUs, foundation models, and AI agents do not merely add more machines—they expand the economy's effective labor supply. In his framework, AI capital performs tasks that would otherwise require human labor. As AI capital accumulates, productive labor capacity expands alongside it, substantially weakening the traditional law of diminishing returns. The paper goes even further. AI investment also changes the distribution of income. A growing share of income flows to capital owners, who tend to save a larger fraction of their earnings. Higher savings increase the supply of long-term capital, push down long-term interest rates, and allow the economy to sustain a larger capital stock. Caballero calls this the Funding Feedback: more capital formation lowers future financing costs, and lower financing costs encourage even more capital formation. Instead of the negative feedback embedded in standard growth models, the system begins to exhibit positive feedback. This leads to two fundamentally different long-run equilibria. In one world, AI investment remains insufficient. Capital accumulates slowly, and productivity growth stays persistently weak. In the other, AI continues attracting abundant financing. Massive investments flow into data centers, GPUs, foundation models, and AI agents, ultimately producing a high-capital, high-productivity equilibrium. The intriguing part is that although this superior equilibrium exists, rational markets may never reach it on their own. Caballero shows that starting from today's low-capital equilibrium, even perfectly rational investors may fail to coordinate on the better outcome. The logic is circular: without enough capital today, future productivity cannot accelerate; without higher future productivity, today's valuations remain subdued; without high valuations, firms cannot finance the necessary investment. The economy becomes trapped in a self-reinforcing equilibrium. This is precisely where the bubble matters. Elevated valuations allow firms to raise capital. That capital finances more GPUs, larger models, and more autonomous agents. Those investments eventually raise the economy's productive capacity. The bubble is not the destination. It is the bridge. This is also why the paper repeatedly emphasizes fragility. The real danger is not that the bubble eventually bursts. The danger is that it bursts too early. If financing dries up before sufficient AI infrastructure has been built, investment stalls, AI development slows, and the expected productivity gains never materialize. But if enough data centers, compute infrastructure, models, and AI agents are already in place before valuations normalize, the high-capital equilibrium can sustain itself even after the speculative premium disappears. The timing of the correction matters far more than the correction itself. The Internet provides a classic example. The dot-com bubble collapsed spectacularly in 2000. Yet the fiber-optic networks, servers, software, data centers, and engineering talent remained. The bubble disappeared, but the Internet revolution had only just begun. AI may follow a similar path. The difference is that what survives this time may not simply be digital infrastructure—but intelligence itself. Going One Step Further I believe Caballero's framework can be extended even further. His paper models AI as replicable labor. In reality, AI is increasingly becoming replicable researchers. If AI can not only perform labor but also conduct scientific research, write software, design chips, discover new materials, and invent better AI models, then it changes not merely the production function—it changes the innovation function itself. Historically, innovation has depended on the number of scientists, engineers, and exceptionally talented individuals. As a result, major technological revolutions have typically taken decades to unfold. This is one of the fundamental reasons behind the long duration of the Kondratiev waves. The economy does not naturally produce a technological revolution every fifty or sixty years. Rather, innovation resources themselves have historically expanded very slowly. AI may be the first technology capable of breaking this constraint. Future innovation will no longer depend solely on human intelligence. Instead, it may become the combined output of humans plus millions of AI agents. Eventually, much of it may even be driven primarily by AI itself, powered by ever-expanding compute. As computational capacity continues to grow, so does the economy's ability to innovate. For the first time, innovation itself becomes a production factor that can be capitalized, scaled, and continuously expanded. Now combine this with the rapid progress of coding agents, research agents, autonomous scientific discovery, and Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI). The feedback loop becomes dramatically stronger. More AI accelerates research. Faster research produces better models. Better models further accelerate research. This becomes a genuine Intelligence Flywheel. The rate of innovation itself begins to accelerate—not merely the efficiency of production. "Slowly, Then Suddenly" This is why I have long believed that AI's economic payoff is likely to follow the pattern of "slowly, then suddenly." Today, investors mainly see spending on GPUs, model training, and data centers. The return on investment appears modest, leading many to conclude that AI is simply another bubble. But these investments are not primarily buying today's profits. They are purchasing tomorrow's intelligence capital. Once model capabilities cross certain critical thresholds, AI agents begin operating throughout enterprises, labor substitution accelerates, and productivity could experience a highly nonlinear jump. At that point, valuations that once appeared excessive may suddenly look entirely justified. Caballero's original feedback loop is: Valuation → Investment → Capital Formation → Fundamentals I suspect AI may ultimately evolve into something even more powerful: Valuation → Investment → Compute → Intelligence → Innovation → More Ideas → Higher Productivity → Higher Profits → Higher Valuations The object generating positive feedback is no longer just capital. It is society's entire capacity to innovate. If this process proves correct, AI will represent more than another technological revolution. It will fundamentally change how technological revolutions themselves are generated. Historically, Kondratiev long waves lasted forty to fifty years not because economics demanded such timing, but because innovation resources were scarce: scientists were limited, R&D capacity expanded slowly, and knowledge diffused gradually. AI is changing those assumptions. Instead of progressively shorter technological cycles, we may witness multiple industrial revolutions unfolding simultaneously on top of a common AI platform: AI-driven drug discovery AI-designed materials AI-created semiconductors AI-powered robotics AI-enabled biomanufacturing ...and many more. Innovation itself becomes industrialized. Technological revolutions become continuous rather than episodic. If Schumpeter made innovation the engine of economic growth, and Romer made knowledge the engine of growth, then RSI and Caballero together may be pointing toward the next frontier of growth theory: Schumpeter's economic cycles depended on disruptive innovation, and disruptive innovation depended on human intelligence—and occasionally, on rare geniuses. AI may be the first technology that turns genius itself into a form of capital: something that can be financed, replicated at scale, continuously improved, and ultimately capable of improving itself. Base on this argument, no matter how large today's AI bubble appears, exponential growth in innovation may allow the economy to absorb it far more quickly than most people expect.

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