BITCOIN RAILS #59#: Post-Quantum Bitcoin Signatures (+ their tradeoffs) | with BIP 360 co-author @Ethan_Heilman and @Blockstream Head of Research @n1ckler 🔗 YOUTUBE: 🌿 SPOTIFY: According to BIP 360 co-author Ethan Heilman, Bitcoin needs a minimum of two soft forks to become quantum resistant: P2MR (or an output type that can safely execute PQ signatures) + a post-quantum checksig (signature scheme). Ethan and the BIP 360 team (including myself and @cryptoquick) introduced the P2MR part via a BIP 360 update late last year—but the question remains, what’s the most appropriate PQ signature scheme for Bitcoin? They all have substantive tradeoffs, but hash-based signatures seem to be leading technical discourse—likely due to recent optimizations by @n1ckler and the broader @Blockstream research team. It was an honor to sit down with both of these men - arguably the two most influential and productive cryptographers in Bitcoin quantum mitigation right now - for an in-depth review of the leading PQ signature schemes and a temperature check on Bitcoin’s post-quantum planning process. TBH, if you want to skip the noise and jump straight to the signal on quantum, this is the interview to watch. In this episode, we discuss: - What needs to happen at the soft fork, infra, and mitigation levels to fully quantum-harden Bitcoin - Recent updates to BIP 360 + breakdown of the leading hash-based signatures schemes for Bitcoin (SHRINCS + SHRIMPS) - Why we may actually get consensus around a stateful scheme for Bitcoin - Comparisons of hash-based signatures vs Lattice and Isogeny-based schemes - Assessing the risks of both waiting too long and acting too fast (and why quantum is a better threat to be facing than a potential classical attack) This episode of Bitcoin Rails is brought to you by my NEW sponsors: - LayerTwo Labs @LayerTwoLabs — developing research, software, and technologies for scaling Bitcoin via the integration of Drivechains (BIP 300/301) - Hashi on @SuiNetwork — a primitive for executing Bitcoin Defi transactions, without having to trust a federated bridge or other centralized entity - BitBox @BitBoxSwiss — an open-source Bitcoin-only hardware wallet, with smooth UX and no compromises on security. Check out Bitbox [dot] swiss and use code BITCOINRAILS to get a discount TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:18 Ethan’s Quantum Wakeup 05:18 How Blockstream Enters Post Quantum 09:25 BIP 360 Explained 12:11 How Bitcoin Transitions to PQ 17:35 Choosing Post Quantum Signatures 23:20 How Blockstream Created SHRINCS 27:22 Signature Budgets Importance Explained 41:13 What are SHRIMPS? 44:51 SHRIMPS vs SHRINCS 47:48 Why SLH-DSA Alone Won’t Cut It 49:24 Is a SHRIMPS + SHRINCS BIP Coming? 51:51 Blockstream’s Big Plans for Liquid 59:04 Quantum Readiness Roadmap 01:02:22 Importance of a PQ Recovery Plan 01:05:35 How Long Would a PQ Migration Take 01:11:17 Quantum Watchlist Recommendations

Henrik thinks Ethereum's big move is still ahead. @RiskTakers000 When Bitcoin takes all the thunder, Alts don't perform. But when Bitcoin only bounces into a top, that's when Ethereum takes off. He's looking at Bitcoin around 120K and Ethereum somewhere between 8-12K @HenrikZeberg Higher bottom means higher top. @crypto_banter @Banter_Clips

Metaplanet issuing their prefs to buy only 200 BTC/day would be absolutely psychotic. I ran the CEBE math on this scenario (no common stock issuance or crazy mNAV expansion, and only 1,400 Bitcoin per week) Starting point: 40,177 BTC 0.97x EV mNAV $297M debt $149M preferred 2,463 raw sats per diluted share ~2,157 CEBE sats/share after senior claims Now imagine Metaplanet buys 200 BTC/day for 3 years using preferred equity only. No common issuance. That adds 219,200 BTC. Total stack becomes 259,377 BTC Yes, a quarter-million Bitcoin treasury built by feeding yield addicts into the preferred equity wood chipper. At 0.97x CEBE NAV, projected Metaplanet share price: Year 1: BTC to $100k: $1.97 BTC to $150k: $2.73 BTC to $200k: $3.49 BTC to $300k: $5.00 BTC to $500k: $8.04 Year 2: BTC to $100k: $2.62 BTC to $150k: $4.86 BTC to $200k: $7.11 BTC to $300k: $11.60 BTC to $500k: $20.59 Year 3: BTC at $100k: $3.58, +73% BTC at $150k: $8.03, +288% BTC at $200k: $12.49, +503% BTC at $300k: $21.39, +934% BTC at $500k: $39.21, +1,794% The bear case is literally “what if Bitcoin only goes to $100k and Metaplanet only goes up 73%.” Horrifying stuff. At $300k BTC, common equity CEBE rises to ~7,351 sats/share even after the preferred claims. At $500k BTC, it hits ~8,084 sats/share. Preferred investors get their yield. Metaplanet gets Bitcoin. Bitcoin goes up. The dollar senior claim shrinks in BTC terms. Common equity eats the residual like a starving rat behind a Tokyo 7-Eleven. Remember, this is with ZERO common shares issued or mNAV expansion. BULLISH ON THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY: :::