Added a bit more $AAOI this week.
On trailing numbers, $AAOI looks expensive, but the valuation can change quickly if management executes on the 800G/1.6T ramp.
Management is targeting $471M/month of DC transceiver revenue by mid-2027. Annualized, that is about $5.65B. If we add CATV, AAOI could be approaching a roughly $6B ARR.
At today's roughly $8.4B enterprise value, AAOI would trade at only about 1.4x ARR.
The table below shows what different revenue multiples would imply.
I don't think AAOI automatically deserves the premium multiples of $LITE or $CRDO today. Its gross margins are around 30%, way below those businesses.
If revenue approaches management's targets while margins expand, even a 2–4x sales multiple would imply a very different valuation.