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TheBigBerbowski
@TheBigBerbowski
Independent research (AI infra, semis + microcaps) | Background in IT, economics, product. Link to my website, live chat, trades. ⬇️
736 Following    25.1K Followers
Hey friends! I’ve joined affiliate program. In full transparency: Fiscal reached out, and since I already use the platform, I said yes. How it works: • You get: 15% off all payments for your first 11 months with code THEBIG • I get: 25% of what you pay during your first 12 months as a customer That’s it. doesn’t pay me for coverage and has no say over what I write. If you see the link in some of my articles, now you know why. Signing up is one way to support my work, but it’s completely optional. Thank you either way. I’ve turned down countless offers for products I couldn’t stand behind. This is a research platform I actually use and can recommend. 👉
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Are we ready for Black Monday? $SNDK $NBIS $INTC $GOOGL
Welcome to Stage 4 🩸 $NBIS $INTC $SNDK $GOOG
Hey friends! I’ve joined affiliate program. In full transparency: Fiscal reached out, and since I already use the platform, I said yes. How it works: • You get: 15% off all payments for your first 11 months with code THEBIG • I get: 25% of what you pay during your first 12 months as a customer That’s it. doesn’t pay me for coverage and has no say over what I write. If you see the link in some of my articles, now you know why. Signing up is one way to support my work, but it’s completely optional. Thank you either way. I’ve turned down countless offers for products I couldn’t stand behind. This is a research platform I actually use and can recommend. 👉
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Your favorite stock market podcasts? Any platform.
especially in these volatile times, who you listen to matters a lot. @aleabitoreddit = voice of reason, bottleneck etf @michaelsikand = made $150k on $SONY, abs chad @ChrisCamillo = cool unc w/ decades of exp @kevinxu = all in king w/ new challenge account @damnang2 = best semi researcher @LIWEI_TWCapital = best taiwan researcher @ParadisLabs = best market analysis @pequityresearch = best earnings breakdowns @CKCapitalxx = retail's fave retail trader @TheBigBerbowski = calls it like it is @amitisinvesting = daily recaps @StockSavvyShay = the modern cnbc @ShaneStoffer = best financial entertainer @WheelieInvestor = best small trader @Dick_Capital = best substack
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This aged well. This was during peak euphoria where "there was no other bottlenecks to discover" and how "physical AI is the next theme".
The next step for AI is not Physical AI. It's ROI AI. That's a new type of bottleneck. The market was about the businesses which generate cash. Always was and always will be. This is a financial advice.
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I think we've all noticed how bad FinX has become recently, and I think two factors contribute to it: - Overall market sentiment - Follower count There's criticism, and often outright insults, over practically everything: - Stock picks - News interpretation - Bullish/bearish stances - Partnerships - Collaborations - Sectors covered When the market is going up, nobody seems to care. When the market is going down, suddenly everything is a problem. I'm not surprised that some larger accounts with 100k+ followers are moving toward simply recapping news rather than sharing their own research, opinions, or stock picks. Can't really blame them.
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Every time I try to start posting more often here, I'm immediately reminded why I stopped in the first place.
Not connected in any way with AI infra stocks. Yet algos read $ORCL $MSFT news, check tag "data center", command: sell everything. If anything, this could be bullish for finX faves. $NBIS
$ORCL FUD spreading to $NBIS and other AI Infra players again. Read the full print. $MSFT doesn't want to renew a deal for A100s LOL. "renting became less useful because it no longer fit the company's specification" "Oracle hardware used older-generation $NVDA chips"
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This wasn't meant to call people losers. I'm just reading and thinking more about this man/picture.
Losers average losers. True/False?
This data center volatility is getting ridiculous. It's not high beta stocks reacting to actual news. It's the fact that every headline gets twisted into FUD that dumps the whole sector 10% in a day. We're at the point where if $MSFT's Satya Nadella looks unhappy with his morning coffee, $NBIS drops 10% on "bearish data center" narrative because what if his bad mood infects the sales team and ruins neocloud deals? I might cause -2% drop in AI sector with this tweet.
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This data center volatility is getting ridiculous. It's not high beta stocks reacting to actual news. It's the fact that every headline gets twisted into FUD that dumps the whole sector 10% in a day. We're at the point where if $MSFT's Satya Nadella looks unhappy with his morning coffee, $NBIS drops 10% on "bearish data center" narrative because what if his bad mood infects the sales team and ruins neocloud deals? I might cause -2% drop in AI sector with this tweet.
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$AAOI Q3 earnings. A closer look at the numbers and management commentary. • Revenue $269.9M (+127% YoY, +41% QoQ) • Data center revenue $155.6M (+254% YoY) • CATV revenue $110.9M (+57% YoY) • 800G revenue $47.5M, nearly 4x QoQ • Adjusted EPS $0.17 vs. $0.14 expected • Adjusted gross margin 28.7%, below the 29–30.5% guidance • Q4 revenue guidance $385–420M vs. ~$427M expected The Q3 numbers themselves weren't particularly bad. The bigger disappointment is Q4 guidance and the manufacturing timeline. Management says demand remains exceptionally strong. A major hyperscaler is shifting from 800G to 1.6T faster than anticipated, and AAOI doesn't have sufficient components to satisfy that demand in Q4. That has several implications. The new three-year 1.6T agreement with an existing Tier 1 hyperscaler is expected to generate $1–1.5B in revenue, although actual purchases depend on customer demand and AAOI's ability to supply. Manufacturing equipment capacity has increased from roughly 200K units/month in Q2 to 330K today. Management now expects over 500K units/month by year-end, down from its previous 650K target. For 2027, the target actually increased from 930K to over 1M units/month, but the US expansion is taking longer due to electrical power and construction issues. The $471M monthly revenue run-rate milestone has moved from around mid-2027 toward year-end 2027. Management expects demand for 800G and 1.6T to exceed production capacity throughout 2027. My takeaway: I don't see evidence of demand deterioration in this report. But AAOI's ability to convert that demand into revenue is clearly progressing slower than previously expected. A strong backlog and growing customer orders won't automatically make those challenges disappear.
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I like $U Very much believe that SaaS will remain strong and even stronger with AI. $APP still looking exceptionally strong and $NOW will recover. Any interesting SaaS names you got?
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This market's dead cat bounce has its own dead cat bounce.
We need to talk about this more. FinX toxicity has gotten out of hand. It's the only ATH position on this platform. It’s not enough that people are dealing with financial losses; others feel the need to kick them while they’re down just for internet points. If you want to be heard, speak like a human, not a clown. If you meet clowns, use "block" feature. Clowns are not worth of your energy, nerves or time. Spend time on learning.
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I think one of the great characteristics to have on Fintwit is to always (or at least try) to remain humble. Be a student always, never stop learning. Never make fun of those who are trying or starting. Whether you have 10 followers or 100,000 followers, we are all still students at the end of the day in this massive dynamic Oasis type game (shout out to Ready Player One IYKYK) we call The Stock Market. Stay humble! 🥧
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Source: trust me bro
$SMH Screenshotted so as not to further platform...Clown Alert
$AAOI Q3 earnings. A closer look at the numbers and management commentary. • Revenue $269.9M (+127% YoY, +41% QoQ) • Data center revenue $155.6M (+254% YoY) • CATV revenue $110.9M (+57% YoY) • 800G revenue $47.5M, nearly 4x QoQ • Adjusted EPS $0.17 vs. $0.14 expected • Adjusted gross margin 28.7%, below the 29–30.5% guidance • Q4 revenue guidance $385–420M vs. ~$427M expected The Q3 numbers themselves weren't particularly bad. The bigger disappointment is Q4 guidance and the manufacturing timeline. Management says demand remains exceptionally strong. A major hyperscaler is shifting from 800G to 1.6T faster than anticipated, and AAOI doesn't have sufficient components to satisfy that demand in Q4. That has several implications. The new three-year 1.6T agreement with an existing Tier 1 hyperscaler is expected to generate $1–1.5B in revenue, although actual purchases depend on customer demand and AAOI's ability to supply. Manufacturing equipment capacity has increased from roughly 200K units/month in Q2 to 330K today. Management now expects over 500K units/month by year-end, down from its previous 650K target. For 2027, the target actually increased from 930K to over 1M units/month, but the US expansion is taking longer due to electrical power and construction issues. The $471M monthly revenue run-rate milestone has moved from around mid-2027 toward year-end 2027. Management expects demand for 800G and 1.6T to exceed production capacity throughout 2027. My takeaway: I don't see evidence of demand deterioration in this report. But AAOI's ability to convert that demand into revenue is clearly progressing slower than previously expected. A strong backlog and growing customer orders won't automatically make those challenges disappear.
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