CPI has likely changed the debate from if Fed will raise to how many times. Last “one & done” was during internet buildout in Mar-1997 to 5.5% vs only 3.75% today. Bonds now pricing in 2 hikes this yr & 3.5 by Jun-2027. But W.H. wants rates lower. No win situation for Fed nxt wk.

CPI came in at 0.4% MoM, in line with street forecasts and our expectation. Yesterday, we highlighted 3 reasons we expect the S&P 500 to close higher today: 1. $SPX fell after PPI. Markets rarely react to the same bad news twice. 2. $SPX has closed higher every 9/11 since 2012. 3. After 4 straight down days since 2023, Day 5 was positive 75% of the time. Subscribe to Premium for our data backed market insights and stock picks.

CPI done. Odds of rate hike now higher, and will be priced in by FOMC. The one hike if it happens will likely top bonds. BTC swept the low. Bad news in the rear. The coins can go up. Spot and chill.

CPI SET TO DECIDE NEXT WEEK’S FED HIKE Markets currently price a 61% chance of a 25-bp Fed hike on September 16, versus 39% for a hold, according to Kalshi. With consensus expecting 0.2% core and 0.4% headline CPI M/M, Friday’s inflation print could sharply swing those odds. The 10-year Treasury yield near 4.95% adds to the stakes, putting the critical 5% level within reach.

CPI drops in 1 hour. 🚨 After yesterday’s sell-off and a hot PPI print, today’s CPI could be the next major market catalyst. Here's everything you need to know in 30 seconds: Why PPI spiked, why CPI matters, and what stocks to watch today.