Bluekurtic Market Insights
@Bluekurtic
Democratizing Wall Street research for Main Street — delivering institutional grade insights without the jargon. For inquiries: connect@bluekurtic.com
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God dammit, not again! 3X leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL saw $2.2B inflow on Friday. The second biggest and just $17M shy of record set 3 weeks ago.
Hard to call a bottom when degens refuse to back off. Come on, go for a hike and touch grass or something. That's green too.
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Investors are finally getting spooked. The CBOE Put/Call Ratio just hit its highest level of 2026. Not a bad setup for a teeny bounce here. Not a bottom. Just a bounce.
The S&P 500 $SPX was higher 10 trading days out in 15 of 18 prior cases.
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Now that's fear. After a brutal selloff in $SPY $QQQ, put/call ratio spiked above 1 for the first time since July.
Such spikes outside corrections have been healthy this bull market. It didn't always mark bottom, but the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 1 month out in 18/19 cases.
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Another risk-off indicator has just been triggered for the S&P 500 $SPX. The $VIX 20 day moving average has crossed above its 200.
Not a great time to be aggressive on buying out the dips. 4 of our 5 risk indicators for stocks are now bearish.
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Uh-ohh. For 5 straight weeks, tech stocks have fallen while financials have risen. Over the past month, XLF outperformed XLK by more than 21%.
The only times we saw divergence this extreme was during the 2000 dot com bust and the aftermath of the 2008 GFC.
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Just for the AI bears. Bulls, look away. NVIDIA has now declined for 5 consecutive weeks, falling at least 1% each week.
$NVDA was lower 10 trading days later in all 6 prior cases, with a median decline of 8.6%. One more flush, huh!
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Now that's fear. After a brutal selloff in $SPY $QQQ, put/call ratio spiked above 1 for the first time since July.
Such spikes outside corrections have been healthy this bull market. It didn't always mark bottom, but the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 1 month out in 18/19 cases.
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3 reasons why we don't think yesterday marked the bottom in the S&P 500. We think we are close, but this isn't it.
We would caution against reading too much into today's $SPX premarket bounce.
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The S&P 500 took 22 trading days to fall 5%+ from its ATH. The 68th such pullback since 1950, but only the 16th to take this long. And painful.
When $SPX took over 20 trading days to decline 5%, it either bottomed within the next 10 days or took at least another 83.
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Wait, WHAT?! Don’t tell me the S&P 500 is ACTUALLY going to follow its 1978 playbook.
1978 was also a midterm election year, the Year of the Horse, AND a year of a second wave of inflation. But it’s different this time, right? RIGHT???
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The trend for the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ still remains bearish. Today's sharp selloff on massive volume is a welcome sign.
Speculative leverage is being flushed out of the market. This is encouraging for the bottoming process, but we remain risk-off for now.
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Today, declining volume accounted for 91% of total S&P 500 stock volume, the highest in 2026.
26 of the last 27 years had at least one day when $SPX declining volume exceeded 90%. Each one probably felt like the end of the world. Spoiler alert, It wasn't.
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Gulp. The Volatility Index $VIX surged over 10 points today while remaining below 30.
Since 1990, this has happened only twice before. Ahead of the 2022 bear market and the 2025 tariff driven selloff for the S&P 500. Sample size of 2. $SPY $QQQ
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Wow! Traders piled in nearly $1 billion into 3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF after Friday’s 3.5% drop in $QQQ. This is the fifth largest single day inflow on record.
The last such spike came just a day before the 2025 bottom. Let's not talk about the first two spikes, okay?
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Hope we can all agree the 200-DMA is a key sentiment level. Today, $QQQ didn’t just slip below it. It plunged 5% in a single day.
Last time in 2020, QQQ gained 61% in 1 year. In 2000, it lost 43%. In 1998, it gained 110%. Either way, 2027 could be wild. Let's just hope like 98.
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Wait, WHAT?! Don’t tell me the S&P 500 is ACTUALLY going to follow its 1978 playbook.
1978 was also a midterm election year, the Year of the Horse, AND a year of a second wave of inflation. But it’s different this time, right? RIGHT???
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Someone big must've gotten liquidated today. Tech stocks $QQQ have fallen into oversold territory for the first time in over 6 months.
Good news is that the Nasdaq 100 was higher 2 days out in 16 of 18 cases. But by day 10, the positivity rate dropped below 40%.
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Something for both bulls and bears here. Today, the S&P 500 $SPY gained over 1% while semiconductors $SMH fell over 2%.
This usually happened either during bear markets or recoveries from them.
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For the first time since 2006, Democrats won both the House and Senate in a midterm. Markets had already priced it in as evident by recent derisking.
Fearmongering aside, the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 3 months out in all cases with no 20%+ bear market in the next 6 months.
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Bears got hammered today, with $SPY up 1.6%. $QQQ also gained over 2% intraday, but it:
1. Reversed at key resistance.
2. Closed right back in the risk-off zone.
That's not one, but two inflection points. Hard to call that a coincidence.
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