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DB’s Jim Reid says investors should brace for the 10-year at 6% before the Fed is done.
DB Reid: Hyperscaler (and related) CDS is climbing partly due to supply and increasing Capex but also as a hedge for all things AI-related
DB Reid: Buy-backs have turned into issuance for the hyperscalers
DB Reid: The top 5 capex spenders are spending more than double that of the remaining 495 in the S&P 500
DB Reid: US earnings are breaking out of a 90-year channel…. On the upside which is incredible when you consider the high growth periods of the past
DB Reid: Payrolls did slow in 2025, which encouraged the insurance cuts, but although volatile, there are clear signs that they have trended up in 2026.
Indeed, with payrolls turning higher, those insurance cuts look ripe for reversal…
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DB Reid: PCE inflation remains elevated, far above the Fed's 2% target.
Ex the pandemic anomaly, core PCE is only 15bps off its 34-year high seen in May
