NO on this Iran market is closer to a bond than a geopolitical trade Polymarket has a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 16% YES / 84% NO with over $72M traded YES only wins if the US starts a military offensive aimed at TAKING CONTROL OF IRANIAN TERRITORY. So airstrikes or naval action alone wouldn't be enough And that's why I think YES is overpriced. With the midterms this close, I don't see room for a full-scale ground operation before EOY At 84c NO, it's 16% upside by EOY Domer, Car, and tsybka are already sitting in NO The thesis isn't no escalation. It's that things can heat up without turning into occupation