This Brazilian election whale looks rly weird The wallet is only 1 month old and has already loaded $205K into Brazil election markets It's been building that position since day one. The potential payout is now $1M+ I'm not saying this wallet knows sth others don't but what if this is another Maduro case?

I think the NATO x Russia military clash market is significantly overpriced Traders have pumped NATO x Russia military clash by Dec 31 odds up to 28%. It happened after reports that NATO had downed a Russian drone in Romanian airspace I completely disagree with ppl who buy YES because the incident doesn't meet the rules criteria Rules strictly exclude the interception of single-use strike drones aimed at a 3rd party and require a direct military x military confrontation. Not just the downing of stray munitions in airspace Some YES holder refer to a recent case when China x Philippine military clash market was resolved YES with weak evidence. But this case is diff because the rules are much tighter I see this as a great NO entry rn. You don’t even need to hold until Dec 31. Emotions will fade and odds will dump fast

MONEY PRINTER ON POLYMARKET I love Polymarket and I love making money in this ecosystem And today Polymarket made its affiliate program way better You now earn at least 20% of the fees generated by your referrals, and 30% from Perps. Fixed rewards for new user deposits are still there too So basically one good trader can now generate you 5-6 figs over time while making himself richer too Just register on Polymarket [ grab your ref link and start grinding

TOP NEWS FOR POLYMARKET AFFILIATES Starting this Friday, prediction revshare is finally rolling out for Dub refs too Until now, affiliates were mostly earning from deposits + bounties Fee revshare already existed for direct Polymarket refs but big traders coming through Dub weren't earning affiliates anything from fees Imo this is a much better model. Active traders can finally be worth way more than just their initial deposit

Polymarket Perps: How can traders make money consistently via Funding arb & Stat arb? The most consistent money in crypto isn’t made via directional bets. It’s made trading inefficiencies between markets. On mature venues, hundreds of 'big desks' fight over the same scraps. On @Poly_Perps , the field is still wide open. Here are two strategies worth running, & $1–25M capacity is the sweet spot: 1. Funding arb Perps use a funding rate to keep their price anchored to spot. When longs dominate, longs pay shorts. When shorts dominate, shorts pay longs. • The trade: when funding is high on Polymarket Perps, short the perp here and hedge with a long on spot or another venue. You’re delta-neutral, so price moves don’t matter, and you collect the funding payments. • Why here: new venues tend to have more directional flow and far less arb capital competing to close the gap. 2. Stat arb Stat arb trades the relationship between correlated markets rather than the markets themselves. When two assets that normally move together drift apart, you go long the cheap one, short the rich one, and wait for the spread to revert. • Why here: Polymarket Perps sits right next to Polymarket’s prediction markets. That opens up pairs that don’t exist anywhere else, like a BTC perp vs. “BTC above $X by Friday,” or ETH perps vs. event markets that move ETH. Who this is for: • Funds running $1–25M in market-neutral strategies: you’re too small to win the speed war on major CEXs, but big enough to matter here. • Individual traders: you don’t need a fund to run these. If you already trade perps on major CEX/DEX, you have everything you need. A funding arb is two positions and a spreadsheet. Plenty of the best arb traders in crypto started exactly this way, and early participants on a new venue get the widest edges before the crowd shows up. Get started @Poly_Perps [Fee tiers / maker rebates] [API docs link] [Liquidity rewards] DMs are open. If you’re running arb or thinking about it, let's talk

LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief ! They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market. Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal : - The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps. - Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure. - Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees. They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe. But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict : > The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets. Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.

This is total nonsense. We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece. Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together. After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception. But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else. It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal. Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him. Enough of this stupid FUD. The end.

POLYMARKET JUST ADDED MORE WAYS TO TRADE BTC FOR THE US Now there are hourly + daily up/downs, price targets, high/low markets and more I like this update bc ppl can trade the same BTC thesis across diff setups Kinda makes the crypto side of Polymarket US much more interesting