Find out why China’s promise of no arms to Iran will do little to end the war in today's episode of Iran: The Latest @sophia_yan speaks to @AGhiselliChina, a China-Iran expert who has spent the war in China, about how the conflict is perceived in Beijing 👇

Top Overnight News Oil wavered as Brent headed for its longest losing streak in more than a year on hopes for progress in US-Iran talks and higher supplies. Iran said about half of war-hit South Pars’ gas capacity is back online, Fars reported. BBG Trump on Tuesday said he backed the idea of a diesel export ban as a way to lower prices that have hit record highs due to a global supply shortage. ‌But analysts and market watchers warn that such a measure would do little to ease high energy prices, and could worsen supply and economic disruptions around the globe. RTRS Xi Jinping arrives for a state visit today, with Trump hosting a roster of US corporate leaders but no comparable Chinese business delegation is expected, clouding deal prospects, a senior US official said. The two may find common ground on AI safety, but neither is willing to give ground in the technology race. BBG Chinese authorities are examining the use of Broadcom’s hardware in state-backed data centers amid a drive to boost domestic producers and reduce reliance on foreign AI infrastructure. FT The US and South Korea are set to unveil an agreement for Seoul to fund a multibillion-dollar gas-fired power plant in Texas, the first project under its $350bn investment deal with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter in Washington and Seoul. FT The cost of hiring an oil supertanker has passed $1.2mn a day for the first time on routes between the Middle East and Asia, adding to the spiralling pressure on global energy markets triggered by the war in Iran. FT Euro-zone private-sector activity grew at the fastest pace in more than three years as the service sector unexpectedly improved. The Composite PMI increased to 53.1 from 52 in August after both Germany and France exceeded forecasts. BBG The Treasury’s cash balance topped $1 trillion for the second time in a month as officials study investing excess funds in repo. BBG NY Fed's Perli said Fed's Reserve Management purchases are not on a pre-set course and that the central clearing of Fed repo operations would have benefits, while Perli added that the monetary policy toolkit has been working well and the Fed's reserve forecasting process is robust. Punchbowl, citing US lawmakers/advisers, outlined that "the electoral climate for President Donald Trump and Republican leaders have worsened dramatically" over the last few weeks. US Democratic Senators are introducing a bill to allow first-time homebuyers to get up to USD 50k for a house down-payment: Axios. Novo is open to replacing its ADRs with a direct NYSE listing to raise its profile in the US. FT

2026, day 237 Good morning from Asia. ‘Bessent Launches ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ to Isolate and Squeeze Iran’ (WSJ); ‘US widens sanctions on Iran but withholds more punishing options’ (Reuters) - “other ‌countries would need to sever business ties with Iran or risk being forced out of the dollar-based financial system.”; ‘What are Iran's options to escalate further in face of US economic threats?’ (Reuters); ‘Iran threatens 46 ships in Strait of Hormuz transit crackdown’ (FT); ‘Houthis claim strike on Saudi tanker in latest Red Sea escalation’ (Euronews); ‘U.S. Says Oil Is Pouring Through Hormuz. Trackers Can't Find It.’ (WSJ); ‘Saudi Arabia holds talks over state-backed war insurance as costs jump’ (FT); ‘Netanyahu says Iran ‘tried to murder one of my sons,’ doesn’t give further details’ (ToI); ‘‘Where to kill Barron Trump?’: Iran said to put $10 million bounty on US president’s son’ (ToI); ‘MBS, Macron urge negotiated solution on Iran, discuss Gaza during state visit’ (Al Arabiya); ‘PLA Air Force elite fleet lands in Egypt for joint drill’ (China Daily); ‘US removes Syria from state sponsor of terrorism list’ (AFP); ‘Greece warns Turkey against violating sovereign rights, vows response from 'position of strength’' (JPost); ‘European leaders rally around Ukraine amid Russian onslaught’ (Euractiv); ‘Ukraine faces €23B defense funding hole as Western cash lags’ (Politico); ‘Ukraine hands UK intelligence ‘goldmine’ to foil Putin’s saboteurs’ (Telegraph); ‘How a country with no army is preparing for war’ (Telegraph); ‘Armenia to start EU bid in 'near future'’ (Euractiv) - “Yerevan will hold a referendum on EU membership”; ‘Burnham: Britain must be bolder about moving closer to EU’ (Telegraph); ‘Trade war could affect defence relationship between Canada and U.S., experts warn’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Australia's woeful ADF spending gaps exposed as Donald Trump targets underspending nations’ (News24); In geoeconomics, ‘Canada's Carney Puts His 'No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal' Doctrine to the test’ (WSJ); ‘Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all cars and trucks from Canada amid trade fight’ (Reuters); ‘Why Canada will suffer from Carney trying to ‘out-tough’ Trump’ (Telegraph); ‘Canadian businesses fear ‘vortex of downward pressures’ from Donald Trump’s tariffs’ (FT); ‘'Not viable' to cut off Alberta energy exports to U.S., Danielle Smith says’ (National Post); ‘The Danube is drying up. Europe still has no plan.’ (Politico); ‘Black Sea, drought and Hormuz crises squeeze global food security’ (Euractiv); ‘US Eyes China Overcapacity Tariffs of 7.5% Before Xi Visits’ (BBG); ‘Taiwan Indicts Nvidia Manager Following Chip Smuggling Probe’ (BBG); ‘US plans nuclear-powered merchant fleet to challenge China's shipbuilding dominance’ (FT); ‘S. Korea Denies Report US Proposed It Buy Stake in Westinghouse’ (BBG); ‘US widens Al-driven investment gap with Europe’ (FT); ‘China's Economic Pull Defies Trump's Push for Hemisphere Control’ (BBG); ‘US targets China’s telecoms grip in Venezuela with new sanctions carve-out’ (SCMP); ‘China boosts coal's economic value 700% after turning it to liquids: report’ (SCMP); ‘China Puts Brave Face on Weak Growth in Rare Defense of Economy’ (BBG); In politics, ‘Court Allows Trump to Pursue Mail Voting Limits, for Now’ (NYT); ‘Trump Quietly Asserts Control Over Postal Service Amid Plans to Overhaul Voting’ (NYT); ‘Trump administration proposes $103,000 fee for H-1B visas after legal setback’ (WaPo); ‘Trump administration preparing to revoke visas of up to 200K foreigners in largest mass visa revocation ever’ (The Hill); ‘Germany’s establishment has a plan to contain the far right. Sort of.’ (Politico); In markets, ‘Scott Bessent takes on bond vigilantes in $32tn Treasury market’ (FT); ‘Treasury market interventions are only a band-aid’ (FT) - “Bessent’s moves on the yen and long-dated bonds do little to assuage markets long-term”