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ER SHARES FOUNDER JOEL SHULMAN SAYS SPACEX COULD BE WORTH NORTH OF $1T
Our partners at ERShares see SpaceX $SPCX as a three-engine empire with one massive upside option:
- SpaceX dominates space exploration, with 90% of all satellites in space and launch costs down from $54,000 per kilogram to $2,000
- Starlink is the cash cow, growing from zero to 10M customers while competing against legacy telecom systems
- Joel Shulman says SpaceX could be worth $1.25T to $1.5T from those two pieces alone, before the upside of data centres in the sky
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$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR:
- 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now.
Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations.
"3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage."
And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil).
- Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027
LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp.
- "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now"
This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL.
CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks).
As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same.
- "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners"
Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing).
As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible.
And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road.
- NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual.
- "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time"
This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market.
TLDR:
- NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage)
- 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL
- Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil
Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive.
Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition.
The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.
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$RDDT ER in a nutshell:
Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected).
EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95.
Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M
Q3 guidance:
Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M
Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M
Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative.
Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!"
This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)
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