“I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years. Roughly five years is my guess So there really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans….apart from being human, perhaps” — Elon Musk

Elon just said SpaceX and Tesla will “exceed these estimates.” The estimates he was referring to were 5-yr revenue growth (based on average analyst estimates). • SpaceX +2,090%. • Tesla +119%. On last year’s sales, that’s about $409B for SpaceX and about $208B for Tesla. Now look at what SpaceX actually projected on the call… $100B ARR this December. Elon said that’s not a question mark. That’s what they would hit if they basically did nothing. He thinks it will be higher. Then the long number. Internal projections for $1T in revenue, not ARR, moved up from 2031 to 2030. He said there’s a non-zero chance that’s 2029. So the analyst sheet is about $409B in 5 years. The SpaceX call is $1T by 2030. $1T is NOT $409B. That’s what exceed means… Tesla’s future revenue is about $208B bass on this. He said they would exceed that too… I’ve been saying this for years. Either management is wrong, or people are still pricing in way less of the future than they think. I’m betting on the second one. Tesla and SpaceX are significantly undervalued. NFA.

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