Daily Chartbook
@dailychartbook
The day's best charts & insights, curated:
Backtests:
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"On the current trajectory roughly a third of the compute dedicated to AI could be controlled by two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, by 2028."
-Bridgewater
"Continued strength in older H100s is particularly striking against the depreciation one would ordinarily expect from technological obsolescence, implying sellers of scarce compute are well placed to extract rents."
-Frank Flight, Citadel
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"This has likely a lot to with long/short hedge funds, who use liquid ETFs as well as index futures and options to adjust their betas. But they are not shorting outright. Instead they are shorting index risk to mitigate their net positions"
@LondonSW
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"The cautious backdrop (hyperscaler earnings, Anthropic S-1, Brazil, midterms, etc) has coincided with a further shift toward defensive positioning, with crowding in the Low Vol factor rising to ~18%ile from the ~0%ile back in June."
JPMorgan via @BlakeMillardCFA
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The AAII bull-bear spread's 52-week moving average has been negative for 72 consecutive weeks, the third-longest streak on record. S&P 500 is +29% over this period. The two streaks that lasted longer were 2008-10 and 2022-23.
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"AI-driven inflation in core PCE is slowing finally."
@AnnaEconomist
Spending on data centers & computers is now America's single largest investment by far: 50% larger than single-family home construction, 3x factories, or 6x apartments"
@JosephPolitano
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"GPU rental rates suggest that available compute capacity remains scarce: H100 rentals are up approximately 14% over six months and 7% over the last 30 days, while B200 rentals have risen 27.5% over six months, implying robust demand for compute."
-Frank Flight, Citadel
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"Open-weight models now account for around 65-70% of smart routing token volume, potentially putting pressure on excess rents at the frontier as cheaper models become 'good enough' for a growing range of enterprise tasks"
-Frank Flight, Citadel
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"The wealthiest 0.1% of Americans now own a record 15% of all household wealth. The bottom 50%? Just 2%."
@charliebilello
This comment below is wrong. It will end badly because US consumption needs the SR to keep falling to maintain rapid growth, well ahead of c.0% income growth. As soon as the SR stops falling, C grows in line with Y. And if the stock maket falls and the SR rises, C is in trouble.
H/T @dailychartbook
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🇺🇸 NAAIM
With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 76.84, active managers appear cautious but far from bearish, keeping substantial exposure to US stocks
👉
h/t @dailychartbook $spx #spx#
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Remarkable run of bearishness in AAII survey. Perhaps it suggests that most survey members have not been participating in the Tech/AI rally.
The tracking of short interest for individual asset classes has ignored this reality. With index ETFs, futures, options, etc. recognizing that hedging affects and accounts for apparent extreme reading is essential.
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$AAPL has outperformed $NVDA over the past year by 15 pts, and it has led on a rolling 1-yr basis since Semis peaked in June.
History says that’s normal when markets get nervous.
So when does $NVDA take the lead again? Watch Episode 1 of The J-Score!
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5 of Thursday’s best charts and insights:
"On the current trajectory roughly a third of the compute dedicated to AI could be controlled by two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, by 2028."
-Bridgewater
"Since costs now exceed income, the retirement trust fund is being drawn down and is projected to be depleted in late 2032"
-Torsten Slok, Apollo
"Continued strength in older H100s is particularly striking against the depreciation one would ordinarily expect from technological obsolescence, implying sellers of scarce compute are well placed to extract rents."
-Frank Flight, Citadel
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"This has likely a lot to with long/short hedge funds, who use liquid ETFs as well as index futures and options to adjust their betas. But they are not shorting outright. Instead they are shorting index risk to mitigate their net positions"
@LondonSW
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