Big news today that CME launched single stock futures - these will trade 23hrs/day, weekends, cash-settled leverage, on the 55 most liquid equities names in the US market! But this is actually not the first time CME has tried to do this. In fact, they made a huge effort in 2002- and failed fantastically. It's worth studying what happened, what's different now, and what this means for the frontier of finance. Time for a side quest- That story starts with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. This was the ugly byproduct of a 20yr reg turf war between the SEC and CFTC (sound familiar guys?), in which margin rules/short sales/reporting requirements were so complicated that even after approval broker dealer compliance framworks had no idea how to handle it. Most people don't remember this brief glitch in history because this was in fact just a big sideshow for what was actually the bigger/$$$ gamble of a darker legacy - exempting OTC derivatives from regulation altogether; this would in turn allow the CDS market to expand without oversight, and we all know what happened after that... But perhaps more practically speaking in fairness to the regulators, the more obvious reason why SS futures failed at the time was probably that there was just no genuine economic advantage over existing tools- because you can in fact get most of the leverage via listed options! Maybe you got slightly better capital efficiency for directional bets, but it wasn't good enough to otherwise offset the biggest reasons why most financial products fail: fragmented liquidity. So why are they attempting to do this again? There are many factors you can point to, but the single biggest difference now is that the retail market structure has changed enormously. American retail is more comfortable with leverage than ever in history, zero commission trading has brought in surplus liquidity beyond wildest dreams, levered ETFs and 0DTE options cant grow fast enough, and crypto perps have demonstrated that there is a ton of appetite for this kind of risk that simply just didn't exist before 2008. If you look at what the CME has been doing, the "retailification of leverage" has been happening for a long time already, starting with micro bitcoin futures called "BFFs" (Bitcoin Friday Futures lol) and the cringy Gen Z social ad that followed for those that are still scarred from seeing it. It's why CME launched for SS futures standard contracts (100 shares) but also micro contracts (10 shares). Honestly - who needs 10 shares futures contracts? The other reason, and probably more critically important, is to pursue a defensive posture. The CME doesn't compete in a vacuum anymore - with exchanges like Coinbase, Robinhood (+ a JVs between Susquehanna for predictions market), Hyperliquid all going after the same retail customer, the race to become the "everything brokerage" is just as much about distribution as much as it is about product design. And we know distribution is everything in finance because the beauty of Reg T + futures based margining is at its most competitive with scale and diversity, for the physics of money operates like a gravitational field: the larger the mass, the stronger its pull. So what does this mean for you? The single stock futures is not the product. You are the product. YOU are the yield. You are the currency that feed these HFTs, market makers, "big finance" just like you were the data currency for social networks, marketers, "big tech." Your intent to trade, the order book you create as makers, the tape you paint as takers, your inability to discriminate for best price when there are tens of seemingly fungible but slightly variant risks being offered, is their profit. And while it may all sound really dire when I frame it like this, but there is actually a way to win. And it goes back to the first principle of why the single stock futures failed to gain traction back in 2002. You must trade OPTIONS. Of course none of this is actual investment advice and you must always do your own research. But as I've written many times before on X already, options are the best tools retail investors have to protect against big finance. That's because options have the greatest asymmetric leverage embedded in the physics of its product that allow great convexity with great duration. When CME's Duffy says "perps are bad products for retail" he is not necessarily wrong- perps have the potential to be the most dangerous products for retail because they have no assurance or guarantee to control their own outcomes, especially given retail is so small- institutions can liquidate you (or each other, and you're just an ant caught in a stampede of bulls) where you have no agency. The reality is that the commodities futures market since the beginning of time has been found useful because it combines speculators WITH natural hedgers. And there is no natural hedger on earth who would take perps risk to hedge their long term business. Duration is an asset. Duration deserves a premium. Term structure exists because there is in fact a market for time. And when you own an option, it means you have the choice, but never the obligation, to meet time where and when you demand it. As I write this, I'm reminded that history has a peculiar sense of humor, delighting in the ironies of fate. The same bill that allowed then failed single stock futures market in 2000 is the same bill that gave us the reg vacuum for the CDS market that basically is the single biggest proximate legal cause of the 2008 financial crisis. And twenty years later yet again now as we head into CLARITY posturing for the next two weeks, on another epic settlement for a CFTC vs SEC battle, there are public debates occurring on various salient features that the crypto industry cares about. But you would all be wise to take note that if the past precedence holds again, the most consequential thing that will happen will actually be interpreted as a footnote, just like the "the Enron loophole" (aka. the OTC swap exemption) and it WILL involve offshore derivatives just as it did last time. And that footnote is what is going to let crypto industry expand again, bigger, stronger and faster. Because that is the other physics of money beyond a gravitational field: the harder you try to confine capital, the faster it leaks across borders.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says US ships belong in the "depths of its water." IRGC: "American ships will soon meet the same fate as US bases in the region."

Few in the West realize that the Chinese once saved the Christian civilization. In the 13th century, the Mongol Empire were unstoppable. Forged by Genghis Khan out of the once-fractured steppe tribes, it became the most formidable military machine on earth. Its cavalry, famed for speed, discipline, and operational range, shattered one state after another across Eurasia. The Mongol advance rolled southward and westward in relentless succession: Western Xia fell after the Mongol campaigns beginning in 1209; the Jin dynasty was crushed between 1211 and 1234; Kara-Khitan collapsed in 1218; Khwarezm and much of Persia were devastated between 1219 and 1221; then came the Caucasus and the Rus’, followed by invasions of Georgia and Armenia, and finally the thunderous blows against Poland and Hungary in 1241. In 1258, Baghdad, seat of the Abbasid Caliphate, was taken and destroyed. To many contemporaries, it seemed only a matter of time before the rest of Europe would meet the same fate. That outcome, however, was not inevitable. A crucial turning point came not in Europe or the Middle East, but in southwestern China. In 1259, Möngke Khan, the Great Khan of the Mongol Empire and grandson of Genghis Khan, personally led a major campaign against the Southern Song. To break Song resistance in Sichuan and open the road deeper into China, the Mongols laid siege to Diaoyucheng, a mountain fortress in present-day Hechuan, Chongqing. Diaoyucheng was no ordinary city wall. Built on steep terrain and protected by rivers and cliffs, it was one of the strongest defensive positions in the Song frontier system. The garrison, associated in the sources with commanders such as Wang Jian and Zhang Jue, relied on the fortress’s elevation, layered defenses, and the Song military’s formidable use of projectile weapons, including trebuchets and other siege defenses, to wear down the attackers. The Mongols launched repeated assaults and raids, but failed to break the stronghold. A Mongol commander, Wang Dechen, was killed during the fighting, reportedly by Song artillery or siege fire. Then came the fateful moment. During the siege, Möngke Khan died in 1259. The exact cause remains debated by historians: some sources say he was mortally wounded by a projectile from the fortress, while others suggest he succumbed to disease during the campaign. But on the larger point there is no dispute: his death abruptly transformed the strategic situation. It triggered a succession crisis within the Mongol Empire, forced major commanders to redirect attention to imperial politics, and disrupted broader offensives. Kublai and Ariq Böke soon entered into a struggle for supremacy, while other Mongol armies elsewhere also had to reassess their positions. Diaoyucheng did not destroy Mongol power, but it helped produce the political shock that fractured the momentum of a world-conquering empire. In that sense, Diaoyucheng was far more than a local Chinese battle. It became one of the great defensive stands in world history. The fortress held; the Great Khan died; the Mongol war machine lost its unity of command. The westward drive that had already crushed so many civilizations was checked by events set in motion on the walls of a Chinese mountain stronghold. Without that resistance, the map of Eurasia, and perhaps the fate of Christian Europe itself, might have been very different.

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If you’re still on the fence about voting in this election, think about what really matters – about the values we were taught, the kind of country we want to be, and how this is a moment when your vote really does count.  Your vote could determine the fate of our republic – the world that our children and grandchildren will inherit. It’s an awesome responsibility. But what an extraordinary privilege it is to live in a democracy that gives each of us the opportunity to make our voices heard.

❀Takahashi❀ *yawn*... My, are you the Commander? I wonder, was it a mere coincidence or the web of fate that brought us together... Heheh~♪ IJN Takahashi is preparing her maiden voyage and will grace your dock in the near future, Commander. #AzurLane# #Yostar#

🎥 Story Pack 18: SALVATION Official Teaser At the edge of the memory, will salvation truly be waiting for us? Through choices made for one another—and an unescapable fate— What remains at the very end of it all? Discover the true meaning of “salvation” in the Story Pack 18 teaser PV. #Salvation# #BrownDust2#