FutureSearch co-founder @dschwarz26 argues prediction markets lost the epistemic commons race to AI chatbots because nobody actually changes their career or personal life based on Polymarket: "It was a bit sad honestly to see how quickly prediction markets have lost their role as an epistemic commons for the world compared to AI systems." "By the time we finally got these prediction markets, there's all of these hundreds of thousands of humans who are researching these questions, betting against each other." "Some of them are using Future Search in order to make better bets. But at the end of the day, the probabilities coming out are not that useful, and I don't know very many people who are actually making different decisions in their careers or personal lives based on things that they're seeing in prediction markets." "But people are making different decisions by talking to AI chatbots and systems like Future Search that can advise them specifically."

FutureSearch co-founder @dschwarz26 argues AI is now competitive with the very best teams of human forecasters and it's already hard to justify using humans for anything: "Right now, we're at some crossover point. There's been some writings by myself, other AI forecasters, by Scott Alexander, about exactly where we are." "We're at the point now where AI is at least competitive with the very best teams of forecasters, prediction markets. AI has obviously a bunch of other advantages. It can do conditional forecasting, decision forecasting. It can forecast things that are private for you. There's a lot of advantages to a purely AI system compared to humans." "Even today, it's hard to justify using humans to forecast anything, and this is only accelerating."

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