Goldman: "oil prices have fallen substantially since the elections, so the bulk of the energy pass-through should now be behind us and we still expect inflation to be meaningfully lower by end-2027."
GOLD EDGES HIGHER AS TRADERS ASSESS US INFLATION AND FED REMARKS
Gold prices edged higher by as much as 0.8% to above $4,050 an ounce in Asian trading, recovering part of the previous session’s 2.6% decline. The rebound followed stronger-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which increased expectations of another interest rate hike in December.
Traders are now fully pricing in a 0.25-percentage-point Fed rate hike, creating pressure on gold as higher interest rates make the non-yielding metal less attractive. However, gold has remained above the key $4,000-an-ounce level, supported by safe-haven demand and continued central-bank purchases. Silver, platinum and palladium also recorded gains.
Goldman adds third rate hike to forecast
"The October CPI report surprised meaningfully to the upside across several categories and marked a third month of worse inflation news. We continue to expect a second 25bp rate hike in December and are adding a third 25bp hike to our forecast in March 2027. A third hike could come earlier in January, but we think March is a bit more likely because we expect the November and December inflation reports to be softer but then expect larger start-of-the-year price increases amidst ongoing cost pressures to boost inflation in January"