BREAKING: In a "game changing" deal for AI, Nvidia is partnering with glassmaker Corning to develop 3 new advanced manufacturing facilities entirely for optical technologies.
Details include:
1. The factories will lead to the creation of at least 3,000 jobs and increase Corning’s US optical manufacturing capacity by +1,000%
2. Nvidia is likely set to replace copper with Corning’s optical glass fibers in its AI rack-scale systems
3. Optical fiber allows for less signal loss than copper, making AI data centers more efficient
4. Corning, $GLW, is surging +16% on the news and Nvidia, $NVDA, is up +3%
The AI Revolution is accelerating.
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72 hours after YC demo day, I moved to Shenzhen for 8 weeks 🤠
I'm headed back to SF with new hardware in hand (sharing more soon), but some takeaways documented below:
> If you have even the slightest ambition to found a hardware company, visit SZ. Pre-raise, pre-team, pre-idea, pre-job departure, it doesn't matter. Just go.
> Plan your visit according to a major conference that interests you. Use that conference as a supplier meeting springboard - that's your ticket to any factory under the sun.
> At the factories, ask about lead times, don't ask about cost (wait on this). Your iteration rate is driven by the lead time on the longest lead time item in your assembly. It pays to identify these parts early to build project timelines.
> Visit Huaqiangbei (read: this is a mini-city, not a building). Robotic subassemblies, batteries, chassis's, electronic parts. They all have buildings where vendors are tightly clustered. Plan to spend 4-6 hours walking around before you find exactly what you're interested in.
> Business relationships are valuable commodities. Treat them as such. Pay attention to people, learn about them. Bring thoughtful gifts. Wait for them to sit first. With Baiju, fill the glass but with tea leave some room. Cultural customs are fun to learn, but also convey a seriousness towards the working relationship.
> Suppliers fit cleanly into discrete buckets. Level of complexity and execution on past projects indicates what is in scope for them. Trivial, but important to level your build expectations. It is easy to design a part with 12 subsequent manufacturing processes, exceptionally hard to find a supplier to fill this order.
If you need coffeeshop recs, food recs, or hotel recs I have a few.
Move to Shenzhen! Get to building!
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I am the Senior Director of Workforce Optimization at Cisco Systems and I want to share something I'm proud of.
In August we identified 5,500 roles that were misaligned with our AI infrastructure pivot. I use the word "misaligned" because HR approved it. The previous word was "redundant" but redundant tested poorly in the internal communications focus group. Misaligned tested well. It suggests the employee did something wrong. That was important to us.
The market gave us 4%. Honestly, I was disappointed. I told my team we need to think about this the way the Street thinks about it. The Street doesn't care that you removed 5,500 people. The Street cares that you removed 5,500 people *and* raised guidance in the same sentence. So that's what we did in Q3. We dissolved 4,000 additional roles and raised full-year guidance to $62.8 billion in the same paragraph of the same press release, and the stock surged 16% after hours. I was in the office watching. I keep a Bloomberg terminal on a second monitor for earnings nights. When the number moved I stood up at my desk. Nobody else was on the floor. It was 4:47 PM and the building was mostly empty, which I realize now is a thing I helped cause.
Revenue hit $15.84 billion. Each of the 4,000 dissolved roles generated approximately $70,000 in market cap. I track this ratio quarterly. I built the spreadsheet myself. It has a tab called "Per-Head Value Creation" and another tab called "Projection Scenarios" where I model what happens to the stock if we do 5,000 next quarter, or 6,000, or 8,000. I have not shared the 8,000 tab with anyone yet. I'm waiting for the right meeting.
Chuck said "focus, urgency, and discipline" on the earnings call. I helped draft that language. It took nine revisions. The first draft said "strategic headcount rationalization" and Legal flagged it because "rationalization" implies the prior headcount was irrational, which creates liability for two years of hiring decisions. So we workshopped alternatives. Someone suggested "realignment." Someone suggested "simplification." I suggested "focus" because focus is the only word in the English language that sounds like a strategy and a threat at the same time and no one can sue you for it.
Our internal tracking system is called VELOCITY. It stands for Value Enhancement Through Labor Optimization and Cost Intelligent Transformation, Year-over-year. It took a naming committee four weeks to finalize the acronym. During those four weeks we separated 1,200 people. I mention this only because the naming committee had six members and none of them found this uncomfortable. I found it efficient.
$5.3 billion in AI orders year-to-date. Raised to a $9 billion pipeline target. The CFO projects $6 billion in hyperscale AI revenue by FY2027. To get there the workforce needs to go from 86,200 to somewhere in the low 70s. I have a slide for this. The slide has two lines. One is headcount, going down. The other is AI order volume, going up. They cross somewhere around Q2 FY2026. I haven't titled the slide yet. My working title is "Alignment." I think that's clean.
Networking orders up 50%. Data-center switching up 40%. Restructuring charges up to $1 billion. I put these three numbers on a single slide for the investor deck. An analyst from Morgan Stanley emailed afterward and said it was "elegant." I printed the email. It's in a frame on my desk next to the Operational Excellence in Transition Award from our internal leadership council. The trophy is a glass cube with nothing inside it. I've been told this was an aesthetic choice by the designer. I think it's the most honest object in my office.
One of the 4,000 was a network engineer named David. Eleven years. He once drove from San Jose to Sacramento on a Saturday to physically restart a router that kept a hospital's ICU monitoring system online. I know this because it's in his performance file, which I reviewed as part of the Q3 separation list. His annual cost-to-company was $287,000. His departure improved our AI-readiness score by 0.003 points. I presented both numbers at my Thursday sync. Someone asked what the AI-readiness score was tracking toward. No one asked about the hospital.
The DOW hit 50,000 the same day we filed the restructuring notice with the SEC. I watched it on the terminal. I took a photo and sent it to my wife. She said "that's great." I wrote back explaining how our filing contributed to the broader rally and that the index was essentially agreeing with my Q3 plan. She didn't respond. I reread my message later and realized it was four paragraphs long. I think maybe I should have just said "good day at work."
We are entering Phase 3 planning for FY2026. VELOCITY has flagged another 6-8% of the workforce as what we internally call "the drag layer." These are roles that generate labor costs without contributing to the AI order pipeline. I have a preliminary separation model ready. The Slack channel for this work is called #
restructuring-wins#. It requires VP-level approval to join. We use a custom emoji for milestones. It's a green arrow pointing up. Someone on my team designed it. I approved it. I didn't think about it very hard at the time and I still don't.
I received a 22% performance bonus this quarter. The category on my review was "Demonstrates Focus." My skip-level told me it was the highest in the division. He shook my hand. I went back to my desk and saw that David's severance had been processed that morning. I noted the date. I did not note the coincidence. I don't think it was one. I think these are just two outputs of the same system, running correctly, at the same time.
I have a meeting Tuesday to review the Phase 3 list. The deck is formatted. The projections are loaded. I'm going to recommend we accelerate the timeline by one quarter. I think the Street will respond well. I think Chuck will say "focus." I think my phone will buzz.
I'm proud of the work we're doing here.
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AI Hardware Demand Growth and Representative US-Listed Companies
June 2026
Executive Summary
Nvidia’s transition to the Vera Rubin (VR200) platform marks a significant escalation in AI infrastructure complexity and cost. Our BOM teardown of the next-generation Rubin rack reveals a ~2x increase in total rack cost to approximately $7.8 million (vs. ~$4 million for GB300), driven not solely by the GPU/CPU but by sharp revaluations across the supply chain.
Key highlights from downstream components include:
• PCB content value +233% YoY, the largest increase.
• MLCC +182%, reflecting higher density and count (e.g., ~600k MLCCs per VR200 NVL72 server, +30%+ vs. GB300).
• ABF substrates +82%, power solutions +32%, and liquid cooling +12%.
These upgrades align with broader AI scaling: 800G/1.6T optical transceivers ramping aggressively, glass-based technologies advancing for packaging and interconnects, and hyperscalers prioritizing performance, power efficiency, and thermal management. We expect sustained multi-year tailwinds for the AI hardware ecosystem into 2027+, with Rubin-driven demand accelerating in H2 2026.
Investment Thesis: While Nvidia (NVDA) remains the core beneficiary, the supply chain offers diversified exposure. We favor companies with direct exposure to high-growth areas like advanced PCBs, high-speed optics, and glass substrates/optical interconnects. Risks include execution on new capacity, potential margin pressure from rapid scaling, and geopolitical supply chain factors.
1. PCB: Sharpest Value Uplift in Rubin BOM
Morgan Stanley’s detailed analysis shows PCB content in the Rubin rack surging +233% versus GB300. This reflects needs for higher layer counts, advanced materials, better signal integrity, and larger formats to support increased power and interconnect density in AI servers.
US Representative: TTM Technologies (TTMI) – Leading US PCB manufacturer with strong positioning in high-complexity boards for data center/AI applications. TTM has invested in capacity expansions (e.g., new facilities) to capture AI-driven demand for advanced HDI and high-layer PCBs.
2. MLCC: Density-Driven Surge
Nvidia’s VR200 NVL72 platform requires ~600,000 MLCCs per server, over 30% more than GB300. Combined with the +182% value increase in the BOM, this underscores tightening supply for high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs in power delivery and decoupling for AI accelerators.
Exposure Note: The MLCC market is dominated by Asian players (e.g., Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo). US-listed indirect exposure may come through broader electronics or power solution providers, but direct pure-play opportunities are limited. Watch for capacity utilization tightness benefiting the ecosystem.
3. Optical Communication: 800G/1.6T Ramp Accelerating
Chinese leader Zhongji Innolight reported Q1 2026 net profit +262% YoY, driven by strong 800G/1.6T shipments, with expectations of significant full-year growth. This mirrors industry-wide momentum as AI clusters shift toward higher-speed optics for reduced latency and power in scale-out/scale-up networking. Nvidia’s investments in photonics and CPO further validate the trend.
US Representatives:
• Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE): Key players in optical components and transceivers; Nvidia has made substantial equity investments to secure capacity.
• Corning (GLW): Major beneficiary via optical fiber, connectivity, and glass technologies (detailed below).
4. Micro-LED/Glass Substrates & Optical Interconnects: Strategic Partnerships Accelerating
On May 20, 2026, BOE announced a cooperation MOU with Corning covering glass-based encapsulation carriers, foldable glass, perovskite substrates, and optical interconnect applications. This aligns with industry shifts toward glass cores for superior flatness, thermal stability, and integration in advanced packaging and photonics—critical for next-gen AI as organic substrates hit limits.
US Representative: Corning (GLW) – Central to Nvidia’s optical strategy with multi-billion partnerships, new US optical factories, and expansion in fiber/photonics for AI data centers. Recent deals position GLW for 10x+ capacity growth in key areas.
AI Hardware Demand Growth & US-Listed Representative Companies Table
Component
Demand Growth (vs. GB300)
Key Drivers
US-Listed Reps
Investment Rationale
PCB
+233% value
Higher layers, HDI, signal integrity
TTM Technologies (TTMI)
Direct AI server/backplane exposure; US capacity expansion
MLCC
+182% value; +30%+ count
Power density in servers
Limited direct (ecosystem via power suppliers)
Supply tightness supports pricing/volume
Optical Comm (800G/1.6T)
Strong ramp (e.g., +262% profit ex.)
Scale-out networking, CPO transition
Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW)
Nvidia investments; transceiver/fiber boom
Glass Substrates/Interconnects
Emerging (MOU-driven)
Packaging, photonics, thermal/optical
Corning (GLW)
Nvidia factory deals; US manufacturing tailwinds
Power & Liquid Cooling
+32% / +12%
Higher TDP (e.g., 2300W GPUs)
Indirect (ecosystem)
Secondary but critical for rack deployment
Source: Morgan Stanley BOM analysis, company reports, industry data. Growth metrics approximate from Rubin teardown.
Outlook & Risks
We project robust 2026-2027 growth in AI capex, with Rubin shipments catalyzing another leg-up in component demand. Optical and advanced substrate shifts could extend the cycle beyond traditional GPU focus. Hyperscalers’ vertical integration and US onshoring (e.g., Corning/Nvidia factories) add resilience.
Key Risks: Cyclical capex pauses, yield/execution challenges on new tech (glass/CPO), commodity volatility in passives, and intense competition in Asia-heavy segments. Valuation multiples in the space have expanded; selectivity is key.
Recommendation: Overweight select supply chain names with strong Nvidia alignment (e.g., TTMI for PCBs, COHR/LITE/GLW for optics/glass). Monitor Q2 2026 earnings for confirmation of Rubin ramp momentum.
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