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Housing supply is back to 2020 levels.
Next step: 2016 levels.
The housing market is starting to look K-shaped too
The housing market already crashed.
Not prices.
Liquidity.
Nobody can afford to move anymore.
Transaction volume is sitting near record lows.
There is NOT a housing shortage.
There is a housing MISMATCH.
America has ~148M housing units…
…and only ~134M households.
That’s a 14M unit surplus on paper.
The problem?
Builders overbuilt luxury.
America underbuilt starter homes.
Big difference.
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Per @NYFed annual housing survey, the average probability of buying a new home (conditional on moving in next 3 years) has declined for last three years and now sits at 52.9%, its lowest level since 2014
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Florida’s entire housing boom depended on migration.
Now:
• Domestic migration is down 93%
• International migration is down 70%
Demand collapsed.
Builders kept building anyway.
Accountability measures and housing investments are delivering results — California’s unsheltered homelessness rate declined 9.5%. (9.5% slide)
There is no housing shortage.
There’s an affordability crisis.
Inventory has been climbing for years while demand is collapsing under the weight of rates, insurance, taxes, and stagnant wages.
The problem isn’t a lack of homes.
It’s that the middle class can’t afford the payment.
That’s a very different problem.
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Gloom in UK housing market shows no sign of lifting, RICS survey shows
The global housing market in 2026 isn’t moving as one market anymore.
1: The U.S. is affordability-constrained.
2: Europe is supply-constrained.
3: Southern Europe, Dubai, Mexico and select lifestyle markets are still attracting global buyers.
Our latest data-driven market update breaks down the biggest trends for buyers, sellers and real estate agents worldwide:
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