Top 9 Formal Methods/Verification predictions:
1. Formal methods alone will not eliminate all kinds of bugs. What I’m calling “Empirical Verification” via sophisticated simulation testing, CUA, etc. will become more important than ever.
2. Languages won’t matter but barriers to adoption will still be relevant especially for startups with customers that they’d need to migrate codebases for, enterprises, etc.
3. For cost and pricing, the economics are improving but there is still high cost demands for infrastructure that are to be figured out. See more in point 7 below.
4. Models will significantly improve and intent alignment will take center stage. Even the best models today prove the wrong thing many times without sophisticated tooling, etc. The model by itself will not be enough here.
5. Engineering workflows are going to drastically change. Engineers will move into long running tasks in parallel that run for overnight to weeks, meaning we will work faster in higher quantity. But fast, iterative work that you push and get back instant results for will not be the norm anymore. Coding agents have tricked us into thinking we’re getting high quality, verified results instantly but that is not the case. This too will improve over time.
6. Vibe coding, consumer/indie development overall, and gaming will have very interesting windfalls as a result of formal methods scaling (at least in terms of applications end users will notice in their day to day). Not including crypto, finance, cloud, hardware, etc. that are already seeing and have been seeing strong results.
7. Languages are only one piece of this. Hardware, and compute are another but there will be an entire class of infrastructure that we’ll need in addition to great work on languages and across the board software. Honestly this is where one of the biggest risks lies. For this to work at scale, the infrastructure doesn’t exist and will require significant innovations and languages are not even there yet. As an engineering community if we want to win we need diversity of choice and we need to avoid lock in. That means helping contribute to different formal languages and you can start with the ones that are tied to your use case. Here’s a brief selection map I wrote:
- Agents writing production code today (especially Rust): Verus
- Checking a distributed design: TLA+
- Math: Lean
- Bend 2, Vera, Vow and Kōdo: worth watching, still very early though.
There’s others so feel free to fill them in, we can have an interesting conversation about them. Just get started for what works for you. Also you help the engineers working on building products around these to accelerate work that comes back for you to use. For example, I’m committing a lot of work to Verus which is OSS to give back. Join me.
It’s pretty obvious the big guys are betting on Lean, Verus, TLA+, Dafny. Which, if you think about the unit economics of this and future vision, makes a lot of sense. Also if you read “FV X”, many of the engineers and researchers that are formal methods experts are pushing these too. There’s a reason. Also, there is less risk of having to rip out your work and start over if you want to get started now. And you can benefit from a rich engineering community already contributing to these languages with large amounts of funding. I like spreading out your contributions so no singular method is locked in and also because each is attuned for specific type of work. The most important thing is to have conviction and just contribute. I’m currently bullish on Rust so I’ve been pushing Verus.
8. Hiring will be impacted. As I mentioned this space is ripe for direct innovation and in tangential research areas, such as intent alignment. Understanding Verification Engineering and I mean understanding it for both Formal and Empirical Verification will help you a lot. This is another reason to look into the above languages as ways for working with the frontier AI labs, neo labs, and big tech companies. There’s a very limited number of formal methods experts today and even less that can combine Formal Verification, Empirical Verification, and Agentic Engineering.
9. “Vibe Verification” via just natural language skills or plugins, etc. will take the market by storm because it’s satisfying to have instant feedback. At times they will maybe even prove valuable, meaningful things and perhaps are good enough for some cases. But they are definitely not good enough for actual commercial or enterprise products or real security today. Be wary of and do not pay for Vibe Verification. Just like with all the test bloat that we had to rip out, if you vibe verify your codebase then it will be filled with slop you’ll have to pull out in the future. As model capabilities improve the last thing you want is poor formal spec examples that are incorrect for these models to reference inside of your codebase. Save yourself the trouble.
I could be wrong about everything and also right about a thing or two, but I think for collective success and transparency we should share our predictions and work together.
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