This week's megacap tech earnings suggest that the AI trade remains intact, according to Anshul Sehgal, global co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets:

META MAY BE THE MOST MISUNDERSTOOD MEGACAP. - Has been growing 33% on advertising. AI is accelerating the ad stack. And the street keeps selling it off. - Amazon, Google, Microsoft sell their compute. Meta uses it all in house. That's why the street gets nervous. - Daily active people ticked down 20M. Russia banned WhatsApp. Iran is at war. Without those Meta was up.

✍️ I’ve had a working thesis for years now that society is undergoing a massive structural shift: the most powerful entities, in many ways are no longer governments, but megacap technology corporations. • More than 4 billion people use $GOOG regularly • more than 3 billion use $META products • $AAPL has more than 2.5 billion active devices These companies transcend any one government admin or any collection of countries. They have tentacles reaching into the daily lives of humans, globally, on with scale + depth that governments could only dream of. And they are not bogged down by bureaucracy - on the contrary, they are supercharged by capitalism. In order for government entities to function at all today, they are entirely reliant on big tech. And now, we have further confirmation of my thesis becoming all too clear on the bond market: Alphabet issued 100-year bonds with a 6.125% coupon, maturing in 2126! They have the structural integrity to earn investor confidence doing so. If they are the more powerful or more reliable entity compared to governments, then their bonds are more favorable to investors, and governments (the previous standard of reliability) have no choice but to raise rates to keep up. Supply and demand at work here. But this is just a recently surfaced example of the wide-reaching implications that this generational shift in global society structure will bring (and has already brought). Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk

📈 SpaceX’s IPO buzz is showing up in trading volume. Less than a month after going public, cumulative trading volume has surpassed 4.3x its free float. Megacap valuation. IPO level attention. Limited supply. For $SPCX , scarcity remains part of the story.

Guys, I have a data-backed thesis for crypto outperforming TradFi in Q4. Stocks came into H2 already strong. But we already saw BTC bouncing hard off the bottom even with CLARITY failing and stocks slowing while the Fed hiked rates. The setup is crypto looks increasingly asymmetric if macro just stops getting worse. The first thing I can’t ignore is there’s now $315B of stablecoins sitting inside crypto. In about 2 years, the pool of native dollar liquidity inside crypto basically doubled. We don’t need every $315B to rotate into BTC/ETH/alts. We just need the marginal buyer to become more aggressive while supply stays relatively sticky. And positioning still looks surprisingly clean for that. – perp funding has been neutral, not everyone paying stupid premiums to stay long – CME $BTC OI fell toward a 14-month low – spot ETF demand recovered with ~$2B net inflows So price rising while funding is boring and professional futures positioning is light gives us much more room for new risk to enter before the trade gets crowded. Now look at the other side of the trade. S&P forward P/E is already around 20x vs a longer-term average closer to 16x. Nasdaq is around 25x. The megacap names driving a huge part of the index obviously aren’t cheap either, with some of the AI/tech complex trading much richer than the broader market. Equity sentiment is pretty comfortable too. VIX around 14-15, margin debt near highs, institutions overweight stocks, low put/call ratios. About 60% of S&P names are above the 200D MA, but cap-weighted returns still rely heavily on the biggest tech names. Stocks aren’t weak. The problem is they need to keep delivering. If earnings only come in “good” instead of amazing while the multiple is already ~20x, there isn’t much disappointment required for equity upside to compress. Crypto is coming from a different place. BTC dominance is still elevated while ETH/alts haven’t broadly caught up. That’s bearish if you’re already assuming altszn. But it’s bullish optionality if you aren’t. My thesis for crypto outperforming stocks in Q4 starts with the majors first, not mid caps. Then if stablecoin liquidity starts moving further down the risk curve and ETH/TOTAL3 breadth finally expands, we get a second leg from capital that is already sitting onchain. BTC’s median Q4 return over the last decade is roughly +15%, with positive quarters around 80% of the time, vs something closer to +3-4% historically for the S&P. What kills the thesis: DXY higher, 10Y pushing 5%, ETF flows turning negative. If things don’t get worse, crypto doesn’t need much imagination. It already has the fuel.

Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We’ll handle the rest. Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me:

Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference.  Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We’ll handle the rest. Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: