＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿ [ ME:I "Click" MV ] ＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿ ME:I Debut Single "MIRAI" ⇱ 2024.04.17 #ME_I_Click# #ME_I_MIRAI# #ME_I# #ミーアイ# #미아이# #ME_I_DEBUT_0417#

Good expert call on Bloom Energy $BE with a former VP at Plug Power - pretty bullish Hyperscalers did not evaluate Bloom against gas turbines and select Bloom. They selected turbines, discovered they could not get them, and Bloom was the alternative that checked enough boxes. Gas turbines from Mitsubishi, GE Vernova, Siemens and Hitachi remain the incumbent workhorse, but his read is that if the order is not already placed, you are not energizing before 2030. Reciprocating engines sit in the same position: Caterpillar, Jenbacher, Generac, Wärtsilä, all effectively sold out. Transformers, switchgear and substation equipment carry 60 month lead times. What Bloom offered was availability plus modularity. A claimed 90 day time to power on smaller blocks, which he believes is credible at modest scale and unlikely at large scale, plus a build-as-you-go capital profile. Turbines want a single large plant. Behind-the-meter deployment wants building blocks you can add to as long as you have secured the land and the gas tap. > Why the Turbine OEMs Will Not Simply Close the Window Turbine and engine OEMs are deliberately not expanding capacity. They suspect the order book is double and triple booked, and they fear being left with stranded factory capacity when projects fail to reach FID. His analogy is the semiconductor capacity cycle, where consecutive quarters of poor absorption caused structural damage. Their posture, as he characterizes the consensus from trade shows and industry conversation: you cannot buy it from me, you cannot buy it from my competitor, you will wait. If that discipline holds, Bloom's window is measured in years rather than quarters, which is materially longer than the market appears to assume. Bloom's product is closer to a solid state electrochemical device than a precision machined turbine, drawing on an entirely separate supply chain that can be ramped faster. > Levelized Cost: A Premium, But Not a Prohibitive One He built his own LCOE model rather than relying on published work, which he found rested on unexamined assumptions. His output: Gas turbine: roughly 4.5 to 7 cents per kWh Bloom: just over 7 cents unsubsidized, below that with federal incentives Reciprocating gas engine: roughly 8 to 10 cents Diesel: high teens to mid 20s The critical observation is that this is not a 3x premium for speed. That pattern collapses the moment supply normalizes, because buyers drop the expensive option as soon as the cheap one is obtainable. A single digit cent premium does not collapse, because the hyperscaler business case still clears at that price. The offset to Bloom's higher capital cost is efficiency: 60 to 65 percent, against roughly 55 percent for a gas turbine and roughly 45 percent for a reciprocating engine. Bring capex down and the LCOE gap narrows or inverts. > Where Bloom Ranks Today Asked to stack rank for a hyperscaler buyer, he puts Bloom third, behind turbines and engines, purely on track record rather than physics. His analogy: you know exactly what you get from a Caterpillar engine or a GE Vernova turbine the way a Toyota buyer knows what he is getting. No buyer has that reflex for a Bloom box yet. The open questions the buying community has not resolved: real world availability, whether maintenance cadence matches or beats turbine schedules, and the roughly 10 year stack replacement cycle. On that last point he offers a mild positive read-across, noting that in the PEM industry stack rebuild intervals came in longer than originally modeled. The path to second or first place requires two things running together: two to four years of collective industry uptime data, and capex reduction. Oracle, Nebius, Brookfield and AEP are the proof points that will settle it. On whether they will work, he says "the jury is still out," while noting early evidence reads favorably. > Non-Combustion as an Unpriced Permitting Asset The Bloom box does not combust natural gas. It runs an electrochemical reaction. The consequences stack up in a specific and useful way: NOx, SOx and particulate emissions at or very near zero, leaving local air quality unaffected Roughly 65 dBA at three feet, which he compares to a lawnmower at fifty feet, meaning nearby highway noise dominates Zero net water consumption, with startup water recycled as steam Materially easier local permitting Each of those neutralizes a specific community objection, and the pushback is accelerating. New York State's one year moratorium is the marker he points to, alongside complaints in other jurisdictions about power draw, water use and air quality. His honest caveat: to date these attributes have played essentially zero role in purchase decisions. Availability and cost drove everything, and he assumes very little of Bloom's performance so far reflects environmental considerations. If pushback becomes electoral, and he says he is watching whether candidates start running on it, then zero emission on-site generation stops being a nice-to-have and becomes the only permittable option across large parts of the country. He expects this to bite first at the 20, 50 and 100 MW sites going into actual neighborhoods rather than at the West Texas mega-campuses. > Market Share Trajectory Data center demand forecasts he is working from run 40 to 60 GW per year. Bloom's share today sits in single digits. His trajectory: Five years: 15 to 18 percent Ten years: 25 to 28 percent Upside case, if emissions constraints become binding in enough jurisdictions: 40 to 50 percent The constraint that drives the upside case is geographic. Not everyone can replicate what Microsoft and Chevron are doing on the West Texas gas fields. Once data centers have to disperse into places that care about permitting, the zero emissions conversation becomes unavoidable. > The Bear Case He Actually Respects Execution, not demand. He flags this above everything else. Bloom has roughly 1.5 GW deployed against a backlog he characterizes as roughly 20 GW. On Sridhar's own description of the factories, that a visitor will see build activity and factory expansion activity running simultaneously, the expert's reaction is blunt. To an industrial engineer, expanding while still trying to build is a very risky proposition. Doable, but it is the precise point at which fast-scaling companies break, and he notes this is the classic failure mode for startups that find themselves in this position. Q1 was clean. The Q2 print, due around the 28th, is the next checkpoint on whether execution is holding. The secondary risks are demand-side and none of Bloom's own making: hyperscale capex circularity, bubble risk, and whether community pushback genuinely slows the build or simply reroutes it to Texas. > Scandium: Directionally Fair, Materially Overblown On the short thesis that Bloom cannot secure enough scandium, he says the report has some points but overstates them. His rebuttal runs on three tracks. Cost sensitivity. Scandium is a dopant in the zirconium ceramic electrolyte, used at very low concentration, valued because it tolerates the 800 to 900 degree operating temperature. Even if it were 2 percent of materials cost, which he considers extraordinarily high for a dopant, a doubling in price takes it to 4 percent. Bloom likely has the pricing power to pass that through, and a half point efficiency gain would offset it in LCOE terms. His conclusion: more price risk than supply risk over the next couple of years. Supply structure. Scandium is almost never mined primarily. It sits in the tailings of titanium, cobalt, aluminum, iron and lithium operations and is generally left behind. The binding constraint is processing capability, not geological availability, and that processing capacity is being built with national security tailwinds behind it. Scandium-aluminum alloys matter for 3D printing, fighter aircraft skins and missiles, which places it squarely in the critical minerals policy agenda. Company mitigations. Bloom has spent 20 years reducing scandium loading per gigawatt. He located a patent application substituting cerium and yttrium, both more available, and Bloom holds IP on recovering scandium from mine tailings. He reads Bloom's willingness to address the topic directly, rather than deflect, as evidence they take it seriously rather than evidence of vulnerability. Non-Chinese supply exists: he points to Sumitomo's Philippines cobalt operation, which publicly identifies Bloom as a customer. Bloom does not disclose suppliers, and the short report's supply map traces its merchants back toward China. > The Competitive Set FuelCell Energy. Molten carbonate rather than solid oxide, but functionally similar: high temperature, slow start, direct natural gas, suited to stationary baseload. Why they never scaled into this comes down to inertia and strategic drift. Their historical focus was a trigeneration box producing hydrogen, power and heat, deployed for applications like Toyota Mirai fueling at the Port of LA. When hyperscale demand arrived they had nothing to show. His read on the pivot: they saw the multiple Bloom trades at and asked why not us. Ceres Power. UK based, probably second globally in solid oxide IP. Pure licensing model, which means most licensees stay invisible. The disclosed one is Weichai, moving from small C&I units up to hyperscale scale. He doubts Weichai exports into the US successfully but expects success in China. Microturbines and aeroderivatives. TurboCell in the BorgWarner orbit, plus aero engine derivatives repurposed as stationary generators. Everything gets a look right now because buyers are desperate for speed to power. Stealth entrants. He assumes several exist that have not been announced, precisely because Ceres-style licensing deals do not get publicized. Asked whether Bloom owns the US market today, his answer: "Pretty much now they do." > Why Hydrogen Never Worked, and the Read-Through to Plug Useful because he lived it from the inside. Delivered liquid hydrogen bottoms out near $8 per kilogram. Run that through the efficiency stack and fuel cost alone lands around 54 cents per kWh, before equipment, labor, warranty or service. He stopped modeling at that point. Even at a hypothetical $4 per kilogram you land near 25 cents, still a non-starter against a 7 cent Bloom box. Plug built a 3 MW unit at its Latham campus that passed Microsoft's full backup generator protocol, the first non-diesel, non-gas system ever to do so. Microsoft publicized it as a breakthrough and then walked away inside six months once the cost picture clarified. Plug's INVISTA facility was outfitted to build stationary modules for the data center market and effectively none of it shipped. Three sites total, including Calistoga in PG&E territory for public safety shutoff backup, and an EV charging site that existed only because a grid connection was unavailable. Both are showpieces that draw tours. Neither is repeatable. source: Tegus

A white mother of three is recovering from brain surgery after being beaten in the head by a black man with a wooden bat for honking her horn - and police have BURIED the description of her attacker! Christen Phillips, 34, was working late-night DoorDash and Uber Eats deliveries in Onslow County, North Carolina, to help support her three children. Around 2 a.m. on August 2, she tapped her horn at a black Range Rover that remained stopped at a green light on Gum Branch Road. The driver followed her to a delivery stop on Shamrock Drive, blocked her vehicle, and then attacked her with a wooden bat when she returned to her car. He struck her repeatedly in the head and face until she lost consciousness. She suffered multiple skull fractures, a shattered cheekbone, brain bleeds, and cerebral fluid draining from her ear. Doctors placed titanium plates in her skull during emergency brain surgery in Wilmington. In her own words: “I believe he thought I was de*d and left me for de*d. It’s a miracle I woke up.” Despite the severity of her injuries and heavy blood loss, she managed to drive herself to the hospital. Her phone was taken. Phillips told police and posted publicly that the attacker was a light-skinned black male, about 6 feet tall, late 30s to early 40s, with short dark hair. Official statements from the Onslow County Sheriff’s Office have so far released only the vehicle description and have not included the racial description she provided. The suspect remains at large. A mother out earning money for her kids nearly died over a single honk. The public still does not have a complete description of the man who left her bleeding on the ground.

My migraine stack that has been working well for me the last 6 months: - consistent bed time - reduce alcohol consumption - reduce caffeine consumption, i now drink 1 cup a day - magnesium glycinate 600mg - vitamin b2 400mg - ubiquinol 200mg - creatine 10g - vitamin d3 2000iu

THINGS MY PATIENTS TAUGHT ME — No. 5 I love my job. Some days I love it so much it feels illegal. A forty-six-year-old man came to me for a third opinion. Father of two, one of them brand new. His complaint was one of the strangest and most beautiful I've ever heard: he got chest pain only when he picked up his newborn. Not the treadmill at the gym. Not the stairs. Not carrying groceries. Only when he lifted his baby. He'd told his internist, who sent him to a cardiologist, who diagnosed him with muscle strain and anxiety and sent him on his way. Reasonable, on paper. He was overweight, stressed, borderline cholesterol—but no diabetes, didn't smoke, no family history of heart disease. Nothing screaming emergency. Except the pain wouldn't quit. It kept tapping him on the shoulder every time he reached for his child. His coworker—one of my patients—finally said, go see my guy. So I put him on the treadmill. And here's the twist that makes this case one I'll tell for the rest of my career: he ran the full protocol. All the way. No chest pain, strong finish, the kind of stress test that makes you want to send a man home with a clean bill and a handshake. But I waited. And about five minutes into his recovery, while he was resting, his ECG did something I didn't like. Just a whisper of something wrong. Nothing dramatic. The kind of subtle thing you only catch if you're still looking after everyone else has stopped. I sent him for a STAT CT angiogram. Ninety-nine percent blockage. Left Anterior Descending, right at the origin. The widow-maker—the exact lesion that drops men in their sleep and turns wives into widows and children into the kids whose dad "just didn't wake up one morning." We didn't send him home. We walked him straight to the cath lab and stented him that day. Think about how close this ran. If his coworker hadn't spoken up. If I'd read the clean treadmill and stopped watching. If I'd trusted the two prior opinions. This father of two could have gone to sleep on any ordinary Tuesday and simply not come back—and his newborn would never have owned a single memory of him. Instead, if he takes care of himself, he gets a whole life. He gets to be there. It was not his time. His wife called to thank me for saving her husband. I told her the truth: that I thanked them. Because this—this exact phone call—is the reason I get up and go to work. There is no professional satisfaction on earth that touches it. And I'll tell you why it lives so deep in me. My own uncle died exactly this way. He was fifty. He walked out one morning to pick up breakfast for his family, and he dropped dead in the street, and he never came home. No warning. No third opinion. No one still watching the monitor five minutes into rest. I can't bring my uncle back. I've made my peace with that, mostly. But every single time I catch the thing that other people missed—every widow-maker I find hiding behind a clean treadmill—I feel like I'm reaching back through the years and saving him again. I honor him with other men's mothers, other children's fathers. It's the only way I know how. So yes. I love my job. On the good days it doesn't feel like a job at all. It feels like the reason I was put here. Go hug the people who lift you. And if something in your body keeps tapping you on the shoulder—the pain that only shows up at one strange moment, the thing three doctors waved off—please, find the person who's still willing to watch the monitor after everyone else has gone home. #Grateful# #Medicine# #Miracles# Blessings, P.S. The pain only came when he lifted his baby. I've thought about that a hundred times. Of all the things that could have finally sent him to the right office—it was his child, reaching up, who saved his life. She'll never know she did it. Maybe someday he'll tell her.

Commander, the Miracle by Midnight event is currently ongoing! "Monotonous times drive me crazy from boredom... Commander, entertain me. I'll take ANYTHING❤" #AzurLane# #Yostar#