🇮🇱🇮🇷 Think Netanyahu lost? The exit polls just handed him the one result that keeps him in power long enough to restart the war with Iran
The bloc that wants him gone has the most seats on paper, but a chunk of those are Arab parties that no right-leaning Jewish party will sit with after October 7, so the math is a tie, and Likud itself came out bigger than expected by eating the seats of Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and the religious parties.
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, former IDF intelligence officer, says that leaves Bibi holding the levers that matter:
"You've taken one of the most dangerous men in the world.
You put them in a desperate situation, but you've given them a lot of levers to get out of that situation."
Shaiel says Netanyahu's pre-election plan was to run an exact replica of the preparations that preceded the last two attacks on Iran, so Tehran would fire first, until the chief of staff vetoed it.
If no coalition forms, a caretaker government means he can start that war, use the crisis to pull Bennett and Lieberman into a unity deal, and if that fails, push the next election from spring into summer while Arab voters conclude their record turnout changed nothing.
He has broken Gantz and Mofaz the same way, and Shaiel expects him to do it again.
@academic_la @WeTheBrandon