What I find truly fascinating is that how little people actually understand the effects of Chinese export controls on Japan. I may have been the very first person who foresaw the chaos it can cause on the day the export control was announced - January 6. Before China implemented it, they've already studied the entire supply chain, and concluded that Japan is the chokepoint to the West. By choking Japan off its critical minerals, it's indirectly choking off the west. Two birds one stone. The implications of that is, lower export tonnages, higher value per ton, while sending a message globally of its dominance in critical minerals. While the west is working hard to diversify itself away from the dominance, China is also working hard to move up the value chain. And they seem to be doing exceptionally well.

The Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 30 of 2026 announced the addition of 14 EU entities to its export control list. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China, and in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to add 14 EU entities, including the Lafayette Group, to the export control list (see Annex), and to take the following measures: 1. Exporters are prohibited from exporting dual-use items to the aforementioned 14 entities. Foreign organizations and individuals are prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the aforementioned 14 entities; any ongoing related activities must cease immediately. 2. In special circumstances where export is truly necessary, exporters must submit an application to the Ministry of Commerce. This announcement shall take effect immediately.

🇨🇳China submits Renewable Energy Law amendment for initial review China’s draft amendment to the Renewable Energy Law was submitted for initial review at the 14th NPC Standing Committee’s 25th meeting. The 10‑chapter, 76‑article draft would tighten planning and oversight, reaffirm Party leadership, require resource surveys and development plans, strengthen development, construction, production and transmission management, overhaul market trading and pricing mechanisms, clarify grid companies’ obligation to accommodate and promote renewable power consumption, boost tech innovation and industry support, and sharpen enforcement and legal liabilities. (Xinhua) (

#Tungsten# Carbide manufacturers in Japan are next on the chopping board. Japanese is one of the largest Tungsten carbide cutting tools producers. They've issued price increase notices several times in 2026, including flagging supply chain issues several months ago. WF6 is a much smaller market as compared to cutting tools. But given the nature of WF6 market - high purity, and therefore scarce, it's the first segment to fall. All else equal, I anticipate this segment to fall starting as early as next month, with Fuji Seiko being the first. It will then be followed by Kyocera, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi Materials.

Breaking: Quad issues joint statement US commits to provide $10 million to promote infrastructure and facilities in India and ASEAN countries that recover critical minerals from waste.

China’s pause on rare earth expires on 10 November. Less than 2 weeks from now. Gallium,Germanium and Antimony suspension ends on 27 November. That’s 4 weeks away. Verbal agreements were stated on mainstream media, but MOFCOM announcements remain the regulations China runs on. Still on the books: >Ann. 70 (rare earths) ends 10 Nov >Ann. 72 (US Ga/Ge/Sb) ends 27 Nov >No announcements on extensions >10 Jan 2027 line is political talk, not a suspension notice. Is ex-China prepared for what's to come?

NEWS: Two Chinese Companies Withdraw From Major African Rare-Earth Project as U.S. Firms Compete for Control $CRML $AREC According to an October 30 Reuters exclusive, two Chinese companies have withdrawn from the bidding process for Kenya’s massive Mrima Hill rare-earth and niobium deposit, leaving five competing groups, including several with American involvement. Among the remaining contenders are ReElement Technologies and Critical Metals Corp. ($CRML), alongside Fluor Corporation ($FLR) and other international mining groups. The two Chinese companies that withdrew were Hunan Research Institute for Nonferrous Metals and Jinan Yuxiao Group. Mrima Hill is considered one of Kenya’s most strategically important mineral deposits, containing rare earths and niobium, both essential to industries ranging from advanced electronics and aerospace to defense manufacturing. Preliminary estimates have suggested the deposit could contain mineral resources worth tens of billions of dollars, although that does not represent proven recoverable economic value. The American companies involved are particularly interesting. ReElement Technologies, a subsidiary of American Resources Corporation ($AREC), is participating through the Frontier Minerals consortium. ReElement specializes in rare-earth separation and refining technologies, potentially offering Kenya a pathway toward developing processing capabilities rather than simply exporting raw materials. Critical Metals Corp. ($CRML), known for its Tanbreez rare-earth project in Greenland, is participating through the Mrima Earth consortium, positioning itself for another potentially significant rare-earth development. Fluor Corporation ($FLR) is also involved through Meridian Mineral Holdings, alongside Tetra Tech. Kenya’s mining minister, Hassan Ali Joho, confirmed the Chinese withdrawals and indicated that the government expects to select a winning developer within the next two to three weeks. Importantly, the minister denied that outside pressure influenced the withdrawals and said he did not know why the Chinese companies exited the process. I’ve been following the growing competition between Washington and Beijing for access to African critical minerals, and this development is worth watching closely. The United States has increasingly emphasized securing alternative sources of rare earths and other strategic materials, while African governments are seeking greater investment in domestic processing and value-added manufacturing. For companies like ReElement and Critical Metals, winning a project of this scale could represent a meaningful opportunity to expand their international footprint. Note: Nothing has been awarded yet. The five remaining groups are still competing, and no final development agreement has been announced.

Today, Masan Community Day: "Tungsten contracts for next year are fully booked due to strong demand. Management conservatively forecasts next year's APT price at $2,300–$2,500. Revenue will continue to grow even if APT prices drop back to $1,500." #Tungsten# #MHT#

BIG OIL 3Q EARNINGS: BP reports its highest profit in 18 years on the back of sky-high refining margins. The company reduces debt sharply (nearly $10 billion in a single quarter), and says it plans to use excess cash to accelerate payments linked to the US Gulf of Mexico spill.

#Tungsten# Carbide manufacturers in Japan are next on the chopping board. Japanese is one of the largest Tungsten carbide cutting tools producers. They've issued price increase notices several times in 2026, including flagging supply chain issues several months ago. WF6 is a much smaller market as compared to cutting tools. But given the nature of WF6 market - high purity, and therefore scarce, it's the first segment to fall. All else equal, I anticipate this segment to fall starting as early as next month, with Fuji Seiko being the first. It will then be followed by Kyocera, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi Materials.