Dropping my deep dive on Tungsten imports later this afternoon. A must read for Tungsten investors & executives. Subscribe so you get an email on Substack when it's dropped. Link in bio

China’s MOFCOM has released an updated the country’s export control catalogue for drug precursor chemicals. Exporters must obtain licenses for specified chemicals shipped to the US, Mexico, Canada, Myanmar, Laos & Afghanistan. No license required to other countries. Effective immediately. This appears to be an extension of U.S.-China fentanyl agreement. China-US trade talks must be going great.

I don't usually post Tungsten 钨 import deep dives. But while going through the data, a few patterns have emerged, and changed how I see the state of the overall supply dynamics of Tungsten. I will spend some time drafting a Substack post to share the findings in due course.

This does not age well. Tungsten & Indium have already seen some flow on effects all the way to downstream markets. Don't get me wrong, he's an excellent voice in commodities. Main point is to highlight China doesn't do things that have minimal effects. Everything is well planned before execution. I too have made wrong calls in the past.

Martina McIsaac, an executive at MSC Industrial Supply, a major U.S. distributor of industrial tools, warned that a tungsten supply shock is affecting the company’s supply chain and continuing to drive up the cost of industrial cutting tools. At the Jefferies Industrial Conference held on the same day, McIsaac stated that the cost of raw materials used to produce tungsten carbide cutting tools has increased by nearly 500%, and suppliers continue to pass these rising costs on to downstream manufacturing enterprises. Cutting tools account for approximately 15% of MSC’s revenue, meaning that rising tungsten prices have become a significant source of pricing pressure for the company. It is reported that MSC is one of the largest distributors of industrial tools and supplies in North America, with its products widely used in factories and machining enterprises. McIsaac pointed out: “Tungsten is currently the biggest driver of cost increases. While it does not represent our entire business, it accounts for a substantial share, and this supply shock has not yet passed.” When asked about the impact of the tungsten supply shock, McIsaac responded: “Tungsten prices have indeed stabilized, but the ripple effects on the supply chain are not over. For instance, some suppliers source tungsten powder from different origins and hold varying inventory levels, leading to differing paces of price adjustments. While each supplier’s situation varies, there remains room for further price increases. As we previously indicated, we expect another round of price hikes by the end of the fourth quarter or the beginning of the first quarter of next year.”

A must watch if you're invested in critical minerals and are watching the upcoming US-China trade talks. From what I am hearing, it's quite clear that the export control on Japan is a separate matter, and therefore unlikely to be discussed here. Even if it is, it's unlikely to be resolved as this trade talk is purely between China and US. China studied the critical minerals supply chain & understood that Japan is the critical minerals chokepoint to the west. Choking it means choking the west indirectly.

And again, retail investor making a call earlier than institutional holders - model won't work in disruptive market. It goes out of date faster than you can last in bed I remain committed in giving information edge to retail holders in understanding critical minerals & China's inner workings

China understands 1 crucial detail that everybody missed - Japan is the epicenter of Tungsten processing for high-end Tungsten products. Choking it off means they're indirectly choking the West off their Tungsten. So they did.