This week's megacap tech earnings suggest that the AI trade remains intact, according to Anshul Sehgal, global co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets:

Today is MegaApp Day! Mega and our apps are going on @therollupco. Expect hours of Mafia founders pitching themselves, their product, their ideology, and future plans. IMHO, we have two types of apps: Left: fun, engaging, entertainment ( or someone call it arcade) app Right: rwa, stables, new financial primitives It will take people a few more glances to understand each app, and how they all fit in together Can't wait

META MAY BE THE MOST MISUNDERSTOOD MEGACAP. - Has been growing 33% on advertising. AI is accelerating the ad stack. And the street keeps selling it off. - Amazon, Google, Microsoft sell their compute. Meta uses it all in house. That's why the street gets nervous. - Daily active people ticked down 20M. Russia banned WhatsApp. Iran is at war. Without those Meta was up.

Most portfolios with AI exposure look the same right now. Heavy on the megacaps. Concentrated in semiconductor names that led the last cycle. Built around the assumption that compute is still the constraint. It isn't.

📈 SpaceX’s IPO buzz is showing up in trading volume. Less than a month after going public, cumulative trading volume has surpassed 4.3x its free float. Megacap valuation. IPO level attention. Limited supply. For $SPCX , scarcity remains part of the story.

While the market for tokenized stocks is new, its composition has already changed greatly in the past year. Crypto-linked products once dominated the market, but their share by market cap has dropped to 21% (as of June) from 79% a year earlier. They have lost the top spot to the "other" category — a long tail of hundreds of smaller listings — that now makes up 35% of the market, up from 15% a year earlier. The rest of the market is climbing too. Megacap tech — tech companies with a market cap around $100 billion or more — now make up 10.6% of the market by market cap as of June, up from 0.6% a year ago. ETFs and indices grew to 17.3% of the market in that same period, up from 4.5% a year earlier. The fastest riser has been, unsurprisingly, the AI and chips category. The category vaulted from less than $1 million in June 2025 — 0.3% of the market by market cap at the time — to 15.5% of the market as of a year later.

DAN IVES SAYS THE APPLE SELLOFF IS AN OVERREACTION, AND HE IS PUTTING NUMBERS ON IT Apple $AAPL just raised prices across its lineup, citing a surge in chip and memory costs, and the stock dropped on fears that margins are about to get crushed. Ives thinks the market has this wrong: On CNBC, Dan @DivesTech argued the actual earnings hit is small, in his estimate less than 2% to 3% on EPS, because Apple held off on price increases as long as it could and is moving in deliberate steps. He framed Apple as a supply-chain operator entering a three-year hardware cycle, and said a year from now the question will be why the margin damage everyone feared never showed up. On how bad costs have gotten, he pointed to Tim Cook's own words to the Wall Street Journal: "This is a 100-year flood." Microsoft made the same move on Xbox, citing memory prices up more than 2.5x. His bigger read: the megacaps are funding the AI buildout while memory and chip names reap the benefit, but once that spending starts to monetize, he expects the pricing power to swing back.

Stock Ratings [June 7th]: On current AI sector crash. Explanations below. Strong Buy: $GOOGL $MU $SNDK SK Hynix Buy: $AMZN $AEHR $AAOI $CIEN $COHR $CRDO $DELL $FN $FORM $GLW $JBL $LITE $MDB $MRVL $MSFT $NBIS $NOW $NVDA $RDDT $RKLB $SIVE Hold: $ARM $ASML $AVGO $AXTI $BE $META $MTSI $PLTR $SOFI Avoid: $CBRS $CRWV $ETH $HIMS $IBIT / $BTC $IREN $MELI $SNAP $TSLA $SPCX (SpaceX) IPO --- Thoughts: Strong Buy: GOOGL - $85B raise is dilutive but they actually have ROI on their capex. Tbh, they'll probably always be a Strong Buy for me. Just the cleanest AI ROI among all the megacaps. MU / SNDK / SK Hynix - If you're not bullish on memory, then idk for you. Buy: AMZN - Mainly for AWS reacceleration + Trainium. But some tension comparing AWS growth (+17%) vs Azure (+31%). Feel like custom silicon + distribution combo is durable even if growth rate lags a bit. AEHR - H2 ramp in WLBI/PLBI systems coming, anchored by "significant" follow-on Sonoma order from lead hyperscale customer. Just need to wait a bit esp. for rev to inflect. But AI ASIC burb in is mandatory as device power goes up. AAOI - Q3 capacity ramp (via facility expansion in Texas) toward 650k+ 800G/1.6T units/mth. Capacity coming online is the catalyst imo along w/ already known laser bottleneck + Made in US premiums. CIEN - Just a high quality biz that got pounded last week (-22%). Beat + raise earnings, but stock dropping this much is an overreaction. CEO even said demand is "structural, multi year and AI-driven" shown by AI-driven DCI being their fastest growing part of the order book as new long-haul routes get built for latency and bandwidth. COHR - upcoming CPO ramp (Nvidia spectrum-x) will speed things up, these prices will look cheap when we look back imo. CRDO - Personally bought a ton last week post-earnings drop. Like Ciena, v. high quality compounding hold through the whole AI supercycle. Crazy high margins. Obviously compete w/ Marvell/Broadcom on SerDes, but also need to factor in the 1.6T switch replacement cycle into late 2026. DELL - Trump effect. I've learnt my lesson and will listen to him next time. FN - v. low drama way to ride transceiver demand + iPronics sipho line for cpo. New datacom wins also extending into next FY, although some Nvidia conc. risks. Put them in Buy just to be generous as was unsure tbh. FORM - Important for HBM, adv packaging and CPO for higher yields. Foundry test intensity only set to increase w/ production. GLW - Lead glass core substrates which are an advanced packaging bottleneck. LTP w/ Nvidia to expand US optical manufacturing for AI infra too. JBL - Stock has done nothing for a month, but earnings coming up could be a nice catalyst for a push higher from their DC infra segment growing + outpacing drag from legacy mobility/ev exposure / margin mix. LITE - CPO ramp + Nvidia qualification like Coherent. MDB - AI is not replacing them. Imo they win vs. bolt on vector stores since their architecture is so simple. MRVL - going to $1T according to Jensen. Underlying business is solid though esp. w/ Celestial acquisition for photonics. SPY inclusion last week too is a big positive. MSFT - Current valuations are a joke tbh, markets probs punishing some margin compression. Rev +18%, Azure +40%, AI run rate +123%. So, v. clear enterprise monetisation path. Will be buying next week in retirement account. NBIS - Best neocloud by far. They're a $100B biz vs. ~$57B currently. Jensen: "Nebius will take care of you." NOW - AI is not replacing them. No enterprise CEO/CTO is dumb enough to offboard them at this point. NVDA - Same as Microsoft. Been buying this whole time, but am now even more confused at current cheap valuations. RDDT - AI is not replacing them. Cash printer. ARPUs improving also in legacy segments like international. RKLB - #2# in commercial launch after SpaceX + their IPO should re-rate the entire space comp set where RKLB is the main liquid proxy. Unbelievable earnings also, just executing so well rn. SIVE - everyone on X knows at this point? Hold: ARM - current valuation prices in flawless execution imo. But their IP is growing in DC CPUs e.g. Nvidia grace, AWS Graviton etc. ASML - Elon said yesterday: "ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." - I agree. Also Terafab fireside chat next week High-NA EUV is the next leg, locking in the roadmap through the decade. Could also be a "Buy" for more risk averse people. AVGO - CEO didn't raise >$100B FY27 target + flagged that Google will multi-source. Current AI mix is also diluting margins slightly. Just needed a pullback before the thesis starts working again. AXTI - InP substrate bottleneck, crucial for AI buildout rn. Could also buy rn, just a slow dca since they've run up a ton already + raise completed ($632M) to 2x InP capacity. BE - SOFC winner imo (Ceres 2nd). Don't think it's a buy just yet due to some valuation vs. profitability gaps. META - hold based on capital allocation mainly. Market seems wary of the ROI on their AI capex hence the continuous dips. Also potential raise to fund capex like Google too - once that digests, I'll personally look to buy. MTSI - Big fan of their investment into $IQE since it de-risks operations a lot, but just think COHR/LITE are better options for 800G/1.6T transition. PLTR - Relatively poor Risk:Reward at current multiples. SOFI - rate sensitivity. Loan book + credit performance carry macro risk which caps conviction rn. Some positives though w/ young + growing member base. Would need to look at credit trends + Fed path in June FOMC to re-assess. Avoid: CBRS - avoid at current prices. Would want it to come down closer to ~$40B mc before I look to dca. Would love to hold since they own genuinely unique tech. CRWV / IREN - Financing for both is a mess...debt/dilution. Nebius are just a better multi yr neocloud. HIMS - Forced out of higher margin GLP1s into lower margin braded GLPs from Novo/Lilly. Feel like their moat was to do w/ regulatory arbitrage on compounding. With that gone, it's a customer acquisition + churn biz buying branded drugs at lower margin. IBIT / BTC - Macro setup is hostile. Higher rates for longer (10Y ~4.54%, 30Y >5%) raise opportunity cost. Pure liquidity/risk appetite instrument + both are tight rn. ETH - same as bitcoin. MELI - personally a little confused - either a hold/avoid. Seeing some margin compression via their credit book growing faster than revenues. Talks of margin recovery next year, at which point the stock could re-rate. SNAP - Absolute worst social media app + CEO is a weirdo. Platform keeps losing share to Meta/Tiktok. TSLA - Huge competition from other EV makers shown by production > deliveries volumes. Humanoids will be their next key growth driver, just a little while away. SPCX (SpaceX) IPO: I never personally participate in IPOs + SpaceX specifically is way too overvalued for me. Will be going long eventually though. Rough ballpark would be ~$1.5T if it gets there post IPO. --- Just for very high level notes at current stock prices (NFA). I'm personally staying long despite the current macro backdrop, mainly in AI supercycle names e.g. memory, semis etc. But then you also have great companies at depressed prices, mainly in SaaS which I'm DCA'ing currently. I don't hold positions in all of these names. This is just a subset that overlaps my "Close Tracking" list + X's favourite names.

JUST IN: SPACEX'S IPO PROSPECTUS COULD HIT AS SOON AS NEXT WEEK. The roadshow is slated for June 8, per CNBC. This would be the largest IPO in history, by a wide margin: The timeline: - SpaceX confidentially filed in April - Prospectus could be publicly disclosed as soon as next week - Roadshow officially kicks off June 8 - SEC rule requires the filing be disclosed at least 15 calendar days before the roadshow - SpaceX advisers aiming for a slightly earlier flip to give investors time to digest The deal size: - Targeting a listing of $70B to $75B, per Bloomberg - That is more than 2x the size of Saudi Aramco's 2019 record ($25.6B) - Largest IPO of all time, by a wide margin The valuation context: - SpaceX merged with xAI in February - That deal valued the combined entity at $1.25 TRILLION - Brookfield $BN disclosed today it has already purchased $2B of SpaceX shares at the current pre-IPO mark The distribution play: - Because this much stock has never been sold in an IPO before, SpaceX's advisers are scouting brokers in the UK, Japan, and Canada - Targeting longer-term retail holders outside the U.S. The setup for the broader AI IPO pipeline: - Cerebras $CBRS closed +68% on its debut today at a $95B market cap - OpenAI and Anthropic are both pursuing offerings as soon as this year - Both could exceed $1T in valuation if they price The market backdrop: - Wall Street has been thirsting for IPOs after a years-long drought - Cerebras was the proof point that institutional demand is back - SpaceX is the megacap test