Neil Chilson on why the US can't ban open source: "I think it's pretty unlikely. It runs smack into some very clear First Amendment issues, some right-to-compute issues. There are constitutional reasons it would be very hard to do such a thing in the US, especially if you're trying to target open source models developed here." "Practically it's always been hard to shut down software. These weights are not giant files. They're transferable quite easily, and running them you still need a lot of compute, so maybe that'd be the bottleneck regulators would try to look at." "But moving the models around themselves, that's very easy to do, and it would be very hard for export-import controls to stop the flow of something like open weight models." "There is a big difference between using a Chinese model, just using the weights here on US infrastructure, and using a Chinese model on Chinese infrastructure. In one case you control the data, you're not sending it overseas. In the other case, if you subscribe to something like DeepSeek and you're using the app and it's based in China, you're sending your data there. There are some security risks to that." "There are other concerns from using models you don't fully understand, but most of those, because of the open-weight nature, are relatively easy to resolve. There is a huge appetite among startups, entrepreneurs, and researchers for open-weight models to do research on. Shutting down the open source AI ecosystem is not a way to continue US AI dominance." @neil_chilson @abundanceinst

Neil Chilson on what he calls the intellect of things, the near future where you ask your dishwasher how it works instead of reading a manual: "I've called it the intellect of things. The Internet of Things was a buzzword a long time ago. The intellect of things is the idea that my dishwasher, I won't have to read a manual to figure out how it works. I'll just ask the dishwasher, and it'll have a small large language model in it that can explain how it works in a way I can engage with." "I don't think the most exciting roles that AI will serve are the drop-in, replace-a-human kind. It's about expanding a set of capabilities, either because you made it so much cheaper to diffuse knowledge that we can put knowledge in places we never had it before, or we have such premium expertise that we can solve really hard problems where it didn't matter what human you put there, it was very hard for a human to solve." "We've seen some of that in mathematics recently, and I think that's happening in coding as well. So I'm much more excited about the places where we get to do new things with AI, rather than places where we swap an AI in for a human." @neil_chilson @abundanceinst

Neil Dutta of @RenMacLLC says Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh should hike interest rates when he can, not when he must. Warsh can probably get the FOMC to hold rates steady this month, but may not be so lucky in September. Dutta speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."