Tesla just sent out two new FSD updates:
• V14.1 Lite for AI3 cars
• New version of V14.3.7 for AI4 cars
Very cool to see both computers getting updates simultaneously.
Starlink has a lot of room left to grow into — telecom is a truly massive market.
SpaceX’s edge is that the vision of making humans into aliens is priceless 👽
You couldn’t pay Elon any amount of money to do anything, same with many of his engineers
But they work tirelessly for SpaceX’s mission because it’s not about money
It’s about creating a future they believe in 🚀
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Some of the things I say are speculative or aspirational and some are not.
What is not speculative is that the V3 satellites that will be launched on Starship are an order of magnitude more capable than the V2 satellites currently launched on Falcon.
Or that an order of magnitude more V3 and beyond Starlink satellites, plus V2 and beyond direct-to-cell satellites, will be launched.
That means >100X the bandwidth of the Starlink V2 system, which will reach $20B ARR this year. Even if revenue per gigabit drops by 10X, that still means SpaceX communications revenue will exceed $200B/year!
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Unlock your options while plugged-in.
Elon Musk says he expects Starlink to capture AT LEAST 25% market share (outside of China) when bandwidth increases massively from AI & Robotics.
That alone would equate to over $500B/year of revenue for SpaceX.
Long-term, he thinks Starlink captures over 50%…. Insane.
He’s creating an entire ecosystem that feeds each other:
• Starship
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Optimus Robots
• Terrestrial & Orbtial Data centers
• Satellite Communications
• Terafab
• Solar
• Energy Storage
The future is awesome
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Far more than that.
As I’ve said publicly, bandwidth demand will increase massively due to AI & robotics. Their need for data transfer is orders of magnitude more than humans!
Even if the communications market merely doubles in size, I would expect Starlink to reach at least 25% market share outside of China (maybe one day in China too), which would be over half a trillion dollars in revenue per year.
It’s not out of the question that Starlink carries more than 50% of Internet traffic long-term, which would probably be over a trillion/year. There is no obvious impediment to that outcome so far.
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@aaronburnett No, I meant actual revenue in the year 2030 itself, not cumulative, which would be a higher number.
Of course, it’s always possible that we flounder along the way or are delusional, but those are our actual internal projections.
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@profstonge I will survive somehow
The chance of SpaceX becoming the world’s most valuable company in less than 3 years is growing larger by the day.
What other large-cap company is projecting a 53x revenue increase in just five years?
$18.7B in 2025 to $1T in 2030.
As big as @SpaceX is, only a few still understand.
Obviously it’s going to take an immense amount of execution to make it happen, but if there’s anyone to do it, it’s the SpaceX team.
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SpaceX will be the most valuable company in the world in less than 3 years. Mark my words
I wonder if Tesla Cybercabs with integrated Starlinks could function as mobile nodes for Starlink Mobile.
Imagine thousands of Cybercabs in a city transmitting 5G connectivity to nearby Starlink Mobile users.
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What @SpaceX is doing with Starlink Mobile is really smart. Instead of building out traditional tall cell towers that would cost billions, SpaceX will deploy small stations that are basically enhanced Starlink dishes on the same mounts and hardware as normal dishes.
The spectrum they bought from EchoStar for $19.6B last year includes terrestrial rights, so they can run a hybrid network. Satellites for dead-zone coverage, and low-cost femtocells on existing Starlink sites for better performance in populated areas.
Plus, they can deploy these small stations whenever needed. Genius.
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What @SpaceX is doing with Starlink Mobile is really smart. Instead of building out traditional tall cell towers that would cost billions, SpaceX will deploy small stations that are basically enhanced Starlink dishes on the same mounts and hardware as normal dishes.
The spectrum they bought from EchoStar for $19.6B last year includes terrestrial rights, so they can run a hybrid network. Satellites for dead-zone coverage, and low-cost femtocells on existing Starlink sites for better performance in populated areas.
Plus, they can deploy these small stations whenever needed. Genius.
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Everyone who asks about the cost of changing a Tesla battery forgets how much it costs to replace an engine and transmission in a gas car.
• BMW 2.0L Short Block (not complete engine): $13,117
• Model 3/Y Remanufactured Battery: $8,000
• Model 3/Y New Battery: $12-$14.5K
Still, people have no idea that Tesla batteries are designed to basically outlast the vehicle. Tesla states that their batteries are designed to retain 80% of their original capacity after 200K miles (321,000 km).
In the really rare instance that a battery is needed, the options are there, and they’re not crazy like people think.
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Everybody asks me about battery replacement cost before they ask about anything else. Has anyone actually had to replace one?
If you think there will be human janitorial jobs at Terafab you are missing the bigger picture 😂
You think you want to build a billion dollar AI company, but what you really want is the janitorial contract for Terafab
$SPCX volume has increased roughly 3-4x since earnings, and after the first share lock-up release.
Aug 4: 144M shares traded
Aug 5: 209M shares traded
Aug 6: 255M shares traded
Aug 7: 241M shares traded
Many people were betting against insiders and employees selling their shares, but the complete opposite happened, as expected. The stock is now hovering around the original IPO valuation ($1.75T).
Never bet against Elon or any of his companies.
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@brivael The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low
The Tesla Cybertruck Dual-Motor AWD is incredible value for the money.
Those who got it for $59K hit the jackpot.
I think I found an interesting design change or style that will make the new Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas visually look different from the main factory … the beveled angles on the ends of the buildings are different.
The main Gigafactory Texas factory has sharply angles beveled edges, but the Optimus Factory perimeter grade beam at the corners are curved.
Here is a comparison between similar points in the construction of both. This should be interesting if the final factory does indeed carry through these rounded corners.
What do you think?
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Also I want to specifically shout out our Sr Director of Starship launch @jstyer. He packed his bag in 10 minutes two weeks ago and urgently hopped a flight to Australia to help lead this effort in person. He’s been on the ranger ever since and is a prime example of true @spacex leadership. The greatest generals don’t sit back to watch their team fight. They grab their sword and charge to the front. 🫡 @jstyer, we sure are lucky to have you! ❤️🚀 🎣
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Hopefully the next Starship will be caught by the tower so the teams won’t need to worry about recovering another ship from the Indian Ocean.
If you watched the landing during Flight 13, it looked perfect. It could happen by the end of the month if everything goes well.
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@SpaceX @gleesonjm Unfortunately, ship recovery is not looking good right now.
Nonetheless, we were able to obtain close-up photos of critical regions of the heat shield and engines for future upgrades.
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Just like Starbase and Tesla factories, Terafab will be incredibly inspiring to come to work!
