Odd Lots debuted a live LA show. The conclusion? There’s an AI angle everywhere in California, even on the linoleum emporium and karate dojo and donut shop in a random LA strip mall.

Odds of a hike now sit at 92%. Almost a done deal based on CME FedWatch. Futures have started to price a base case of four 25 bp hikes by June 2027. Yet opinion across CT and FinTwit remain mixed. With core CPI slowing down to levels not seen since March 2021 and headline CPI driven by oil, many argue the Fed has no need to raise rates. The other school of thought is that, with long-term yields rising, a hike is needed to protect Fed credibility and rein in yields. Although the actual efficacy of it is debatable. This is one of the most closely watched FOMC meetings this year. If the Fed hikes, 25 bp is not a large move from the current 3.50–3.75% range. What matters is the expected path from here. The Fed’s stance on current conditions, whether more hikes follow, and by how much. Those are factors more important than the immediate decision. Assets re-rate on deviations from what is priced, so a surprise on the future path is what induces volatility.

Odds on a Fed hike Wednesday went 61.5% → 87.5% in three days. October and December haven't moved a basis point in two. Forget the 87.5%. The story is in the two numbers that didn't move. October: hold 61.5%, hike 36.5%. Identical to yesterday — not a decimal of difference. December: hike 57.5%, hold 39.5%. Also identical. Second day running, the market repriced one meeting and left the rest alone. Which says: the market thinks the Fed moves Wednesday, and does not think that changes the path afterward. "This one" and "how many more" are being bet as two separate things. Volume on the September contract went from $6.94M to $18.35M in a day (+164.6%). The four markets on September's inflation print, added together, hold $7,814. That's 2,349x. And the gap keeps widening: 99x on 09-10, 228x on 09-11, 292x yesterday, 2,349x today. Nobody is betting on the number. Everybody is betting on the reaction. Stocks traded it: S&P −0.48%, Nasdaq −0.56%, and the VIX up 7.95% to 17.1. The 10-year yield went the other way, down 1.4bp to 4.961%. Friday was stocks up, VIX down, yields up. Last night was the exact inverse — and no data landed in between. Three gauges flipped in two sessions during a week with no inflation print at all. That isn't data. That's a room waiting on a meeting. Next: the decision lands Wednesday 09-16, 2:00pm ET — about 38 hours out, with a fresh dot plot. At 87.5%, the hike isn't the news. Not hiking would be.

ODDITY $ODD Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $181M (Est. $178M) 🟢; -25% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.20 (Est. $0.16) 🟢; -78% YoY 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $13M (Est. $8.8M) 🟢; -81% YoY FY26 Guide: 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $30M-$32M (Est. $10.7M) 🟢 🔹 Revenue: -19% YoY Q3 Guide: 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $18M-$20M (Est. $6.3M) 🟢 🔹 Revenue: -5% YoY Other Q2 Metrics: 🔹 Gross Margin: 68.7%; -360 bps YoY 🔹 Net Income: $13M 🔹 Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments: $561M Capital Return: 🔹 Share Repurchases: $80M 🔹 Exchangeable Note Repurchase: $35M Comments: 🔸 “We remain hopeful that IL MAKIAGE is on track to achieve normalization and we continue to work in close partnership with our largest advertising partner to solve the technical issue.” 🔸 “As a result, we now expect third quarter net revenue to decline approximately 5% year-over-year, a meaningful sequential improvement from the first half.”