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DWF Labs
@DWFLabs
Helping institutions, builders, and individuals power the future with liquidity, capital, ideas, and infrastructure. Managing Partner: @ag_dwf
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Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed. This week → November 11 → Spots limited, registration recommended.
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Incoming: Key market moments this week. Monday: US: ISM Manufacturing PMI. EU: Final October manufacturing PMIs. Tuesday: US: Midterm elections. Asia: RBA rate decision. Wednesday: US: ISM Services PMI. ADP employment. EU: October flash CPI. Thursday: UK: Bank of England decision. Friday: US: October jobs report (8:30am ET). What are you keeping an eye on?
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The best teams scale operations much faster than they scale people. Grow output, not org charts.
3 midterms. 3 green years for BTC. +25%, +45%, +92% twelve months after the vote. However, the path wasn’t smooth. In 2014 and 2018, BTC was down 31% and 46% three months in. Year three of a presidential term has historically been the best for stocks: S&P median +18.9%, up 17 of 19 times. The midterm year itself: +0.6%. BTC has similarly risen in the past three third years: +34% in 2015, +92% in 2019 and +155% in 2023. 2027 is next.
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FOMC holds at 3.75–4.00%. Vote: 10–2. Both dissents (Cook, Hammack) wanted another 25bp hike. That’s two votes for back-to-back tightening less than a week before the midterms. What Warsh put on the table: 1) H1 GDP revised up to 2.4%, from 1.8% 2) Q3 likely tracking above 3% 3) Inflation above target for close to six years No clear signal on December. Overall, the meeting delivered an expected hold with hawkish undertones. Scheduled rate decisions drop to seven in 2027 and six in 2028. Fewer decision points and no guidance between them means each meeting carries more weight, and more risk of surprise.
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The Fed is priced to hold on Wednesday, 2pm ET. Polymarket has it at 94%. Taking a poll, seeking predictions and thoughts 👇
Established players have much to protect. New entrants have nothing to lose. Bet on the hungry.
Back tomorrow. BYO laptop and ideas.
Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed. October 28 → November 4 → November 11 → Spots limited, registration recommended.
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Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed. October 28 → November 4 → November 11 → Spots limited, registration recommended.
Show more
The exchange super-app race is on. Early crypto was about capital appreciation, so exchanges built around liquidity. Today the focus has shifted to risk management, lending and borrowing, and spending. The expected winners are vertically integrated, through in-app products, partners and alternative distribution channels. Many platforms will come and go chasing the single app for every asset and every person. The upside is massive. Crypto exchanges are small next to their TradFi counterparts, and incumbents like @okx are already raising fresh rounds to fund their next phase of growth. Different users need different things: Individuals need strong all-in-one platforms Institutions need full-stack prime brokers Liquidity is still fragmented across equities, crypto, perps, spot and options on separate platforms. @token2049 panelists expect that to persist before consolidation happens.
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What do institutions really need to see before they touch DeFi? That question kept coming up @token2049 The blocker isn’t a lack of benefits. It’s the risk of being on-chain, specifically counterparty risk. Between human error and code failures, the number of exploits makes it hard for institutions with real size to get comfortable. Three things would change their assessment: 1. A track record across multiple cycles with no hacks at scale 2. Secure custody solutions that work at their size 3. Infrastructure partners who operate transparently and securely Retail faces the same barrier. Many individuals still trust institutions more than they trust code. So the most likely path to mass adoption isn’t users flocking to DeFi apps. It’s trusted institutions building on DeFi in the backend while users interact with a frontend they already trust, never needing to know what’s underneath. DeFi becomes the rails, not the product. One more note from Singapore, “crypto” as a word is tainted among institutions after past cycles. However, founders who focus on solving real problems will still do well.
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A year ago, RWAs barely came up at crypto conferences. This year, they were named on almost every panel @token2049. And it wasn’t just crypto natives. @Nasdaq, @InvescoUS and @CMEGroup were all in the room. Tokenization is rolling out in two phases. Phase 1: the wrapper. Stablecoins and tokenized versions of existing assets. Where most tokenized assets sit today. Phase 2: native issuance on-chain, with @Securitize named as best in class. Where we’re heading as regulation clears up. Panelists were blunt: tokenization for tokenization’s sake does nothing. Liquid assets are largely a solved problem. The real unlock is illiquid ones: private companies, smaller nations’ equity markets (Nigeria, Brazil), real estate, and emerging asset classes with no formal venues. The strongest case for adoption is tokenized assets as building blocks. Collateral: yield-generating assets you can trade against without selling. Faster settlement means higher asset velocity, quicker margin calls and less collateral posted. Structured products: tokenized assets plus DeFi primitives create new products, which drive more demand for the assets. Three things are slowing progress: Operations. The tech integrates fast. Redesigning how markets operate does not. Issuance. Permissionless vs official, with no shared standard. Regulation. Rules reportedly flip every 2-4 years, making big commitments hard to justify. Reality check: tokenized assets are still only in the billions, versus trillions sitting offchain in TradFi. It's early, but everyone believes blockchains will be the rails of finance. For more from Singapore, read on in full.
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🇸🇬 CONNECT: Could AI solve crypto's liquidity fragmentation problem? @DWFLabs' @Lingersj sees AI-powered market makers connecting fragmented trading venues by monitoring more markets than human traders can. She believes AI could help improve liquidity across the industry.
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This week: HotDesk Wednesday at our Dubai office. October 14, 10AM - 6PM GST. Work alongside our team, connect with the community, and more.
Key takeaways from the @DWFVentures team at @token2049 Singapore 👇
Despite hazy conditions and low visibility, the past week at @token2049 Singapore has cleared away any doubts about the path ahead for crypto. Here are some of our key takeaways: Overall Event Much larger institutional presence across the conference as compared to previous years. Though the number of side events have declined, private gatherings and dinners still remain of high quality. Tokenization & RWAs Tokenization and RWAs remain at the top of everyone's minds, and the main subject of discussion. Further institutionalization of the industry in the near future is consensus, and we should expect even more suits at future conferences. Interest in yield products built around tokenized RWAs like funds and structured products is building, though distribution to the masses remains limited. Derivatives @HyperliquidX remains king, and related events were heavily subscribed to and widely raved about. HIP-4 seems to be the next product poised for growth, and eyes are on teams like @Outcomexyz. Outside of perps, options have also drastically increased in mindshare, with @DeriveXYZ leading the pack. Despite the sector's limited adoption in the past, this could prove to be its breakthrough moment. Teams like @TheRiskProtocol are also working on incorporating options while completely abstracting them from the end user. AI & Agents @prlnet was the talk of the town, amongst both funds and retail traders. Slightly mysterious and hard to acquire (reminiscent of @bittensor's early days), but it did not slow buyers down at all. Trading still remains the largest focus for agents, whether for spot, perps, or prediction markets. Cards & Payments @ethena and @ether_fi seemed to be the top 2 solutions for overseas attendees. Ethena's localized approach with Grab was extremely effective and also received praise from locals. Quantum @NEARProtocol and @QuantusNetwork's Quantum + Privacy Day was the conference's largest quantum event, discussing crypto's migration to quantum-safe, privacy preserving infrastructure. @drakefjustin's sudden tweet played a large part in driving conversations around an imminent Qday and the need for quantum resistant solutions. We expect this to be a larger area of interest in the coming future. Thankful for the past two weeks of conferences and conversations with both builders and investors! As always, our DMs are open :-)
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How do fragmentation, AI and incentives affect liquidity in crypto? Notes from our Partner @Lingersj, during her panel at @Cointelegraph CONNECT with @ShiliangTang @ataaffe @_MinTeo @raycotarrida. Fragmentation has always existed in crypto, and RWAs are no different. Tokenized versions of the same underlying aren’t fungible across issuers. Liquidity has improved over the years, but there’s still a long way to go. AI has shortened research, analysis and backtesting cycles. It could act like an “agentic AMM” for individuals and help reduce fragmentation, but it’s still too early to let AI run this on its own. The flip side is security risks due to AI. Teams have to treat security as a continuous process, not a one-and-done. Strong SOPs across both code and human points of failure are essential. Incentives are a good way to bootstrap liquidity early, but not a long-term solution. Good fundamentals and transparency with the community are key.
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Stairway to (crypto) heaven. Day 2 of @token2049, let's go. 🤝