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PCE inflation was still elevated at 3.7% last month, almost double the Fed's target.
Tariffs and in particular the unresolved Iran War continue to take their toll.
PCE SUPPORTS FED HOLD FOR NOW
Capital Economics says July’s core PCE increase is unlikely to trigger a Fed rate hike in September.
However, with annual core inflation at 3.3% and economic growth remaining resilient, the firm believes higher rates may eventually be necessary.
For now, the data strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates steady.
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PCE INFLATION SEEN AT 3.6% IN JULY
Oxford Economics expects the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, headline PCE, to rise 3.6% year-over-year in July, easing slightly from 3.7% in June.
The report is due later this month.
With services inflation cooling and the labor market showing little sign of overheating, Oxford Economics expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2026.
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Core PCE projections for August are centered around 0.25%-0.28%, which would be the same as July and slightly below the 0.29% rise in core CPI.
Note: these have bigger uncertainty bands than they normally do given the upcoming NIPA revisions
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Core PCE was in line with expectations. The SOFR curve is essentially unchanged this morning.
JULY PCE
Core PCE comes in at .25% MOM...Hotter than consensus but not as hot as our nowcast predicted (.28%).
September hike odds move up from 34% before the release to 40% currently.
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July PCE
Actual: 3.7%
Estimated: 3.6%
Prior: 3.7%
BREAKING
PCE Price Index (YoY)
Act.: 3.7%, Prev.: 3.7%
BREAKING
PCE Price Index (MoM)
Act.: 0.2%, Prev.: -0.1%
Core PCE prices rose 0.13% in June, the mildest month-over-month gain since March 2025 (a 1.6% annualized rate)
The 3-month annualized rate was 2.9% (vs. 2.8% a year earlier)
The 6-month annualized rate was 3.8% (vs. 3.1%)
The 12-month change was 3.3% (vs. 2.8%)
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