PASSIVES, MLCCs: NIKKO report today. +ve outlook on AI-driven demand cycle. Qualitatively different than the '17/'18 EV cycle or the '13-15 smartphone cycle. "Assuming the current upswing is driven by AI, then the tech upcycle this time is different to past ones that were driven by consumer demand. We think the current cycle is driven by government investment into AI given increased concern over national security. The number of end-products is smaller, but there are more electronic components per end-product, and these components are often high in margin. This means gains in unit prices will contribute more to profit growth than in past cycles, and demand from DCs has been strong enough to offset the slowdown in consumer demand. As a result, OPMs are approaching the peak levels recorded during the IT bubble period." ...However, if you are buying these names here, you probably take the view that consensus estimates are still underestimating the operating leverage in these businesses and we are likely to see big overshoots in the next 2 years.

When it comes to pastimes, there's no time like the present... "In the monthly retail sales report, spending at sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments and book stores rose about 10% in July from a year earlier, more than most categories tracked by the Census Bureau." (Bloomberg)

MURATA 6981 SEMCO 009150: Passives o/p regionally. Sea change today...perhaps the "news" that SA was to blame for July volatility cleansed our collective psychology. At any rate, positive fundamentals persist, e.g., MS with SEMCO "top pick" note last week.

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Erling Haaland is among a growing list of soccer stars investing in one of their favorite pastimes, chess. Here’s why: 📸: Hannah Peters/FIFA via Getty Images