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Happy new year everyone! 🎉🎉🎉 This New Year’s Eve I made Berliner (a traditional German filled doughnut without hole)! This wasn’t just a random baking project, in Northern Germany, many families eat Berliner on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day. Historically, Berliner are a winter and pre-Carnival treat: High-energy, fried pastries meant to get people through the cold season and the fasting period that used to follow. In some regions, they naturally became part of New Year’s traditions as well. 😎 I’m from Kiel, and for me New Year’s without Berliner just doesn’t feel complete. Since you can’t really find them here in Qingdao, I decided to make them myself... 😅 A bit of work, but absolutely worth it. Some traditions may be regional, but if they mean something to you, they’re worth keeping. 👍 Happy New Year!🎉 Guten Rutsch! 🎉

AI Hardware Demand Growth and Representative US-Listed Companies June 2026 Executive Summary Nvidia’s transition to the Vera Rubin (VR200) platform marks a significant escalation in AI infrastructure complexity and cost. Our BOM teardown of the next-generation Rubin rack reveals a ~2x increase in total rack cost to approximately $7.8 million (vs. ~$4 million for GB300), driven not solely by the GPU/CPU but by sharp revaluations across the supply chain. Key highlights from downstream components include: • PCB content value +233% YoY, the largest increase. • MLCC +182%, reflecting higher density and count (e.g., ~600k MLCCs per VR200 NVL72 server, +30%+ vs. GB300). • ABF substrates +82%, power solutions +32%, and liquid cooling +12%. These upgrades align with broader AI scaling: 800G/1.6T optical transceivers ramping aggressively, glass-based technologies advancing for packaging and interconnects, and hyperscalers prioritizing performance, power efficiency, and thermal management. We expect sustained multi-year tailwinds for the AI hardware ecosystem into 2027+, with Rubin-driven demand accelerating in H2 2026. Investment Thesis: While Nvidia (NVDA) remains the core beneficiary, the supply chain offers diversified exposure. We favor companies with direct exposure to high-growth areas like advanced PCBs, high-speed optics, and glass substrates/optical interconnects. Risks include execution on new capacity, potential margin pressure from rapid scaling, and geopolitical supply chain factors. 1. PCB: Sharpest Value Uplift in Rubin BOM Morgan Stanley’s detailed analysis shows PCB content in the Rubin rack surging +233% versus GB300. This reflects needs for higher layer counts, advanced materials, better signal integrity, and larger formats to support increased power and interconnect density in AI servers. US Representative: TTM Technologies (TTMI) – Leading US PCB manufacturer with strong positioning in high-complexity boards for data center/AI applications. TTM has invested in capacity expansions (e.g., new facilities) to capture AI-driven demand for advanced HDI and high-layer PCBs. 2. MLCC: Density-Driven Surge Nvidia’s VR200 NVL72 platform requires ~600,000 MLCCs per server, over 30% more than GB300. Combined with the +182% value increase in the BOM, this underscores tightening supply for high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs in power delivery and decoupling for AI accelerators. Exposure Note: The MLCC market is dominated by Asian players (e.g., Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo). US-listed indirect exposure may come through broader electronics or power solution providers, but direct pure-play opportunities are limited. Watch for capacity utilization tightness benefiting the ecosystem. 3. Optical Communication: 800G/1.6T Ramp Accelerating Chinese leader Zhongji Innolight reported Q1 2026 net profit +262% YoY, driven by strong 800G/1.6T shipments, with expectations of significant full-year growth. This mirrors industry-wide momentum as AI clusters shift toward higher-speed optics for reduced latency and power in scale-out/scale-up networking. Nvidia’s investments in photonics and CPO further validate the trend. US Representatives: • Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE): Key players in optical components and transceivers; Nvidia has made substantial equity investments to secure capacity. • Corning (GLW): Major beneficiary via optical fiber, connectivity, and glass technologies (detailed below). 4. Micro-LED/Glass Substrates & Optical Interconnects: Strategic Partnerships Accelerating On May 20, 2026, BOE announced a cooperation MOU with Corning covering glass-based encapsulation carriers, foldable glass, perovskite substrates, and optical interconnect applications. This aligns with industry shifts toward glass cores for superior flatness, thermal stability, and integration in advanced packaging and photonics—critical for next-gen AI as organic substrates hit limits. US Representative: Corning (GLW) – Central to Nvidia’s optical strategy with multi-billion partnerships, new US optical factories, and expansion in fiber/photonics for AI data centers. Recent deals position GLW for 10x+ capacity growth in key areas. AI Hardware Demand Growth & US-Listed Representative Companies Table Component Demand Growth (vs. GB300) Key Drivers US-Listed Reps Investment Rationale PCB +233% value Higher layers, HDI, signal integrity TTM Technologies (TTMI) Direct AI server/backplane exposure; US capacity expansion MLCC +182% value; +30%+ count Power density in servers Limited direct (ecosystem via power suppliers) Supply tightness supports pricing/volume Optical Comm (800G/1.6T) Strong ramp (e.g., +262% profit ex.) Scale-out networking, CPO transition Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW) Nvidia investments; transceiver/fiber boom Glass Substrates/Interconnects Emerging (MOU-driven) Packaging, photonics, thermal/optical Corning (GLW) Nvidia factory deals; US manufacturing tailwinds Power & Liquid Cooling +32% / +12% Higher TDP (e.g., 2300W GPUs) Indirect (ecosystem) Secondary but critical for rack deployment Source: Morgan Stanley BOM analysis, company reports, industry data. Growth metrics approximate from Rubin teardown. Outlook & Risks We project robust 2026-2027 growth in AI capex, with Rubin shipments catalyzing another leg-up in component demand. Optical and advanced substrate shifts could extend the cycle beyond traditional GPU focus. Hyperscalers’ vertical integration and US onshoring (e.g., Corning/Nvidia factories) add resilience. Key Risks: Cyclical capex pauses, yield/execution challenges on new tech (glass/CPO), commodity volatility in passives, and intense competition in Asia-heavy segments. Valuation multiples in the space have expanded; selectivity is key. Recommendation: Overweight select supply chain names with strong Nvidia alignment (e.g., TTMI for PCBs, COHR/LITE/GLW for optics/glass). Monitor Q2 2026 earnings for confirmation of Rubin ramp momentum.