"Performance usually suffers after a throwback or pullback. Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time."
- Bulkowski, in Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
Half the time. That means if you enter a breakout, you should expect a pullback to your entry 50% of the time. Sure, there are environments that are more conducive to breakouts than others. Take for example, this year April-early June - most breakouts worked really well. But the point is, you should have a sense of reality in terms of overall statistics. If you're not aware of that reality, you'll either get shaken out of trades that would have worked prematurely, or oversize thinking you have higher odds of an immediate profit cushion. Don't fall for these traps.
Not all breakouts are clean, in fact most aren't. The ones that are clean, tend to be amazing trades that really push your P&L. But remain grounded in reality and understand many of them will fail. This is where your risk management will come in handy.
Performance puts a blockchain on the shortlist. It doesn't decide where institutions deploy.
Sei and @Mastercard worked with 40+ experts and leaders from financial institutions to map how that decision gets made.
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