Good morning
New week. One thing. Pick one thing to focus on this week. Not 3. Not 5. One. Maybe it's honoring stops. Maybe it's waiting for the first 15 minutes to pass before taking a trade if that's something you want to change. One focus, one week. That's how you build.
Let's have a great week.
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A few former leaders of this year in the photonics space also at/near their 200d SMA
If we see a renewed leadership in parts of the AI trade such as semis, memory, photonics etc, these names also look interesting here for position trades from a reward to risk perspective
$COHR $GLW $AAOI $VSH
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I see several stocks in the semi space at/near their 200d SMAs and finding buyers.
With the $SMH finally closing over its 50d SMA on a Friday (weekly basis), and semis starting to show some signs relative strength again, these names look interesting for swing trades
These were all leaders April-June
I'm looking for some position trades on these names if they hold up - either with shares or ITM LEAPs 8+ months out.
$AMAT $LRCX $KLIC $UCTT
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Neoclouds $WGMI look quite interesting here
$NBIS $HUT both look good to me
$MU strong close on Friday, closing over 1000. Looking to see if this finally makes its way to 1100+. Earnings are coming up in a couple of weeks.
Last quarter MU guided $50B in revenue and $30+ EPS for Q4. Price wise that ended up being the local high. But since then MU has carved out a nice base. With $DRAM $SMH looking constructive, I am watching MU pretty closely into the next few weeks
Over 1040 area, we could see a 100 point run into earnings
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Good morning, say it with me
"This weekend I will review the week. Not just the P&L. The decisions. The process. The moments I was tempted and what I did about them. Results and stats may fade from memory. Lessons don't."
Have a great Friday.
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"No one has ever lost a loved one in a losing trade."
- Mike Bellafiore, The PlayBook
Nine words. Read them again.
On my worst trading days, when the account is red and the frustration is real, I keep coming back to this line. It resets everything. A losing trade is money. Just money. It's not your health. It's not your family. It's not your life.
The traders who last are the ones who keep perspective when the screen is screaming at them. This quote is how I keep mine.
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One of the biggest lessons from my trading journey has been learning not to let the market consume my life
There will always be another trade. Another setup. Another red day to bounce back from and another green day to build on. It just goes on and on
Personally unless it’s a record day/week I don’t really talk about the day to day with my wife. I do talk about it if I’m going through a challenging phase, because it’s great to have perspective from someone outside the bubble + it gives you a reason to celebrate when things are good again.
Otherwise, on most days when it’s 4pm I pretty much mentally clock out. Later in the evening I’ll review charts as a routine but at this point I’m not really consumed about trading/my positions after the close
The goal is to stay consistent through the ups and downs without letting either define you. One day isn’t really a big deal, neither is one week. Protect your capital, protect your mindset, and make time for the people and experiences that matter outside the screens
Trading is a long game. And it will take time. In the meantime, build a life you actually are happy about while you are on the journey. Don’t let the years pass you by without living it to the fullest.
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We have a window of opportunity on the long side.
As of now I feel we might have a tradeable bottom. It should be clearer by the close tomorrow but I’m looking to position myself into names that have held up well, but are not extended. Perhaps a bit of names that are extended if they present dip buys
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Good morning fam
Honest question: are you trading or are you gambling? Trading has a plan before the entry. Gambling decides what to do after. If you don't know your target and your stop before you click, you're not trading.
Good luck today!
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"Performance usually suffers after a throwback or pullback. Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time."
- Bulkowski, in Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
Half the time. That means if you enter a breakout, you should expect a pullback to your entry 50% of the time. Sure, there are environments that are more conducive to breakouts than others. Take for example, this year April-early June - most breakouts worked really well. But the point is, you should have a sense of reality in terms of overall statistics. If you're not aware of that reality, you'll either get shaken out of trades that would have worked prematurely, or oversize thinking you have higher odds of an immediate profit cushion. Don't fall for these traps.
Not all breakouts are clean, in fact most aren't. The ones that are clean, tend to be amazing trades that really push your P&L. But remain grounded in reality and understand many of them will fail. This is where your risk management will come in handy.
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Airlines definitely an interesting bet on a possible deal before the midterms
Back to back days of call flow on $DAL $UAL $JETS as well
I view this as a good reward to risk opportunity. $JETS and $AAL in particular have fairly cheap options even out to Nov that could see 3-5X on a deal/crude oil backing off
It’s worth a shot
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Good morning, say it with me
"Nobody is watching me trade. No one sees whether I follow my rules or break them. The process lives or dies in private. And that's exactly why it matters. Discipline without an audience is the one that counts the most."
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9/15 Market Recap
- 2/2 red days this week on $SPX $QQQ after a strong Friday, and new lows on SPY vs last Thu. $SPY finished -0.36%, $QQQ -0.57%, $DIA -0.58%. Small caps lagged harder with $IWM -0.93%
- Breadth mostly tracked the headline under the hood: with the equal weighted $RSP -0.49%. MAG7 mixed bag with $META $NVDA green while $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL finishing red.
- Only 2/11 sectors finished green today, as energy $XLE roared back to life after a reversal yesterday. $MPC $COP $EOG $VLO $SM remain leading stocks in this sector at the moment
- Cybersecurity $CIBR and parts of software $IGV remained strong. $CRWD $ZS $PANW all made new highs after a very strong day yesterday. Within software, $TWLO was a standout name today. $RBRK continues to show strength
- Semis like $QCOM $DELL $AMD $ARM $INTC showed some strength early on but saw reversals later in teh session
- Crypto names mostly ugly after the Clarity bill did not pass with $IBIT -4%, $ETHA -5.5% and related names $COIN $MSTR $HOOD $CRCL $PURR all seeing selloffs in the afternoon
Big day tomorrtw with now a ~95% chance of a rate hike by the Fed. Let's see how the markets react based on what the decision is. Overall, not an easy spell in the markets, but as I have been telling my fellows traders and community - hang in there, after difficult phases in the markets, easier times will come. For now be selective and trade smaller. Once traction returns, gradually add size back.
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I now have post nut Clarity
$COIN $MSTR $CRCL $PURR
Crypto names look pretty good into the Clarity Act vote tomorrow, lets see how they hold up afterwards
$COIN $MSTR $CRCL $PURR
Good morning
Show up for yourself today. Not for the account. Not for the P&L screenshot. For you. The version of you that decided to learn this craft deserves a version of you that takes it seriously every single day. Even the boring ones.
Good luck.
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Crypto names look pretty good into the Clarity Act vote tomorrow, lets see how they hold up afterwards
$COIN $MSTR $CRCL $PURR