Part 2 of our New Beginnings event is now underway! Look out for a new batch of New Year's Race Rallies and other exciting events! For more details, please check the in-game notice. #Umamusume#

Part One of our Data Center Bridge series is out, with more parts on the way. In this part we covered the question hanging over the entire sector, is this 2000 again. We rebuilt the filings of eleven hosting and fiber companies from the dot com era and measured whether they could pay their fixed bills from the cash they actually made. None could, the median covered 17 cents of every dollar owed. We then ran the same measure on fifteen small and mid cap data center companies today. The median covers 52 cents, and ten of fifteen still cannot pay their fixed bills from current cash. We also covered the part that does not rhyme with 2000. Back then the demand came from startups spending raised money. Today the end of the chain is $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, and $AMZN with signed orders, and on contracts already in hand, twelve of the fifteen cover their bills by year three. The risk is not fake demand, it is timing. The cash has been promised, not paid, and for five of these companies more than half of next year’s cash comes from contracts that have not started yet. That gap is what we call the bridge, getting from signed to earned to funded to delivered to paid. The market prices these fifteen companies as one trade. They are fifteen different bridges, and some are much longer than others. Part Two covers who is actually paying and what stands behind them. After that, single name deep dives, starting where our numbers and the October selloff disagree the most. Full piece on the Substack.

Part of the reason I bought a bunch of Google when the stock was at a $2t market cap was because I assumed YouTube is worth over $1t and Google cloud is worth over $1t. So potential search disruption from ChatGPT didn't matter. It's looking like both of those assumptions will be correct. Nothing can stop YouTube.