Vicor guided the same quarter three times in 71 days. Jul 21: Q3 up nearly 10%. Sep 21: up more than 20%. Sep 30: up more than 30%, so above $186.4M. The product forecast never moved. Both raises came from one source: royalties on Vicor’s first non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license. Back out what was already contracted, and that license works out to roughly $28.7M in a single quarter. For comparison, Vicor’s royalty for all of 2025 was $57.4M. $VICR reports tomorrow before the open. Here’s what we’re watching. First, is it a run rate or a catch-up? If the license pays per unit sold, part of Q3 is back royalties on units that already shipped. Vicor has done this before: Q3 2025 royalty spiked, then fell 33% the next quarter. Whatever the Q4 guide implies for royalty answers this. Second, opex. The May license added $4.4M to SG&A for contingent legal fees. Royalty has no cost of goods, but it isn’t free. If opex jumps again, the new license carries the same cut. Third, the product side. Customer feedback on Gen2 VPD, and how quickly the fab reaches $1.5B in capacity. Fab space isn’t what limits Vicor right now. Customers are. Our line is simple. Q4 royalty under $25.4M means the new license doesn’t recur. Anything above that means Vicor now has two engines, and the second runs at nearly 100% gross margin. Part 1 and Part 2 are on our Substack. Part 3 drops after the print tomorrow!

Reminder that $VICR reports tomorrow before the open. A recap of what has happened since our deep dive published in September: -Three patent suits filed in Texas -A third ITC case filed, then formally instituted against nine corporate families, pleaded as one supply chain powering Google's TPUs -Sites acquired for additional fabs -First vertical power licensing agreement signed -Guidance raised twice in nine days, from 10% sequential growth to over 30%, on the royalties from that license -A royalty price list published on Vicor's own website -Needham to $350, Roth to $375 The Street expects $1.32 in EPS on $187 million in revenue. The report decides what the royalty structure actually looks like, and our Part Three publishes after it.

$MOD has customers waiting in line that it physically cannot sell to. Two hyperscalers are piloting its chillers right now, and existing customers cannot get units because the capacity is spoken for through 2029. That is the demand picture behind the stock. One agreement alone, worth more than $4 billion with a $165 million prepayment, reserves roughly half of Modine’s chiller output for three years. The CEO works directly with five hyperscalers and says it plainly, if they had the capacity today they would be shipping well above what they ship. The constraint is the building, not the buyers. The leaked database from August explains who is in that line. It named $GOOGL behind the $4 billion order, 3,512 chillers at 3 megawatts each, roughly 10.5 gigawatts of cooling in a supply chain that can build 12 to 13 gigawatts of new capacity per year. It showed $AMZN buying giant custom air handlers in a pipeline modeled three times larger than the chiller deal. Modine confirms none of it, but five separate public statements line up with the files, from the investor slides dating each hyperscaler relationship to the CEO’s own 40, 80, 100 probability language matching the database exactly. Run the pipeline through those odds and fiscal 2027 data center revenue lands near $2.3 billion, above the top of guidance. All of that sits on a company trading at 12 to 13 times EBITDA while $VRT trades at 23. Full breakdown below, including whether the chiller survives the warm water era, the factory bottleneck, and the honest bear case.

$BE is worth about $85 billion. $INIO is worth $14.4 billion. This year they will book almost the same revenue. $INIO guides to $3.8 to $3.9 billion in 2026 revenue. $BE guides to $3.9 to $4.2 billion. INNIO shipped 3.4 gigawatts of engines last year. Bloom ended 2025 with about 1 gigawatt of annual factory capacity. INNIO is building toward 10 gigawatts a year by 2030. An AI campus needs power on a specific date and the grid cannot promise one. In the busiest regions, connecting a large new load takes five to seven years. Sell-side estimates value getting power one year earlier at about $4.50 per watt. INNIO's engines sell for $0.45 to $0.70 per watt. The buyer is paying for the date, not the hardware. The J624 is a 5 megawatt gas engine that gets trucked in on a trailer and takes load in about 15 seconds. Nothing larger takes load that fast. The demand is already on paper. Backlog went from $1.0 billion at the end of 2024 to $6.6 billion in June. Customers have prepaid $1.4 billion. 2026 and 2027 are sold out and reservations reach into 2030 and 2031. We traced about 8 gigawatts of Jenbacher engines to named sites. $AMZN specified 280 J620s in a Pennsylvania permit. $ORCL and OpenAI's Frontier campus runs on Jenbachers through VoltaGrid. Liberty Energy filed the first real price in an 8-K: $493 million for 100 J624s. Then there is the part nobody prices. Services were 48% of 2025 revenue and about 65% of segment profit. A data center engine runs about 8,000 hours a year against 2,000 to 4,000 on the legacy fleet, and the parts wear by the hour. The first wave hits major overhauls from 2029. So why is it $19.20, 29% below the $27 IPO and 55% below the June high? Because of who is selling. The IPO was 100% secondary. The sponsors still own 86% and only about 14% of the company trades. One quarter of tariff hit margins did the rest. The lockup expires November 30. Now run the math. At $19.20 the market is pricing capacity that stops at about 5.7 gigawatts, short of the Austrian expansion already under construction, with the new Wisconsin line adding nothing. Our base case is $27, about 40% above today. Bear is $14.40 and bull is $38. The risks are real. The Texas permit pause. A sponsor with 646 million shares to sell. VoltaGrid at 41% of 2025 orders. All of it is in the report, along with what would change our mind. The dates that decide it: October 19 TCEQ's report, October 29 Enerflex earnings, mid November INNIO's Q3, November 30 the lockup, and around December 10 when ERCOT finishes its review. The grid will get there eventually. The data center cannot wait for it. INNIO sells the time in between.

$VICR just raised Q3 guidance again. Nine days ago it went from ~10% sequential growth to over 20%. Today it's over 30%. The stock has nearly doubled in the three weeks since this deep dive went out. Two fabs, a fourth licensee, two guidance raises. All on royalties from one license, and there are five more AI counterparties still unlicensed. Earnings October 27. Deep dive is free.

Happy Labor Day everyone! Our writeup for this week is out. What's in it: - Fed goes silent all week, CPI Friday - $119bn of Treasury auctions into 52-week high yields - $NVDA's Jensen says AGI has arrived - $AAPL foldable Wednesday - $ORCL and $ADBE report Thursday - OPEC+ on hold, diesel at a record, tanker war in Hormuz - Canada's tariffs hit Tuesday Going forward every newsletter is 100% free. No paid sub needed. We post two every week. Everyone should know what's moving markets and what they own. That's what this is for. Link in bio.

We started doing weekly write-ups covering the market news that actually moves things. Earnings, the Fed, new data releases, energy, deals, etc. Twice a week. Sunday night is what's coming and what each number actually measures. Friday night is what happened, and whether the thing we said to watch was the right thing to watch. Anyone can tell you the jobs report comes out Friday. The useful part is knowing which line to read and how to act on it. Link in bio, new weekly recap just posted!