THERMAL ALERT ANALYSIS: NOVOKUYBYSHEVSK OIL REFINERY, RUSSIA SITE • Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery, Russia, refinery (crude refinery in Rosneft's Samara group) • Owner-operator: Rosneft • About 8.3 to 8.8 million tonnes per year nameplate (5.74 Mt processed in 2024); Volga-region refinery producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, bitumen and coke; struck repeatedly in this war (verified strikes 19 Oct 2025, 18 Apr 2026 and 22 Aug 2026) • Adjacent major sites within about 10 km: none (Kuibyshev refinery and the Samara terminals sit more than 20 km away) DETECTION • No satellite thermal detection in the event window: a direct NASA FIRMS pull (VIIRS Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 and MODIS, 2026-10-29 00:00 UTC to 05:50 UTC) returned zero detections within 15 km of the site for 2026-10-30, and none after 2026-10-29 08:35 UTC • The only detections near the site in the pull are two small routine daytime pixels on 2026-10-29: Suomi NPP, 08:16 UTC, 3.53 MW, confidence nominal, 4.31 km WSW of the site; NOAA-20, 08:35 UTC, 1.98 MW, confidence nominal, 4.26 km WSW. Both predate the claim by about 18 hours and match normal complex heat • Pass coverage of the window: the one regional pass before the reported attack, NOAA-20 at 00:07 UTC, predates ignition on every reported timeline (drone danger announced 01:05 UTC, attack underway by about 02:00 to 02:54 UTC). No post-ignition satellite pass had occurred or published by pull time; the next looks are Terra MODIS at about 07:10 UTC and the VIIRS day cluster from about 08:00 UTC. The null is therefore unproven, not a contradiction: it carries little weight until a post-ignition pass is checked, and a fire of the photographed scale still burning at the day passes would register strongly • Map package attached: site, satellite and region views plus the plume view, which is rendered from the most recent NASA GIBS scene, dated 2026-10-29 and pre-event; the 2026-10-30 scene was not yet published at generation time, and no plume is shown or claimed CONFIDENCE • Event real at the site: HIGH, 85-92% • Cause (Ukrainian drone strike): HIGH, 80-88% • Damage or impact: no basis (no damage specifics have been claimed by officials or verified; which units, if any, are hit is unknown) • Rationale: three different photographs from three different vantage points, all published between 03:57 and 05:02 UTC, show multiple thick black smoke columns over the town's industrial zone at dawn, and Samara's governor confirms on the record that a Ukrainian drone attack was being repelled over the oblast at the time. The satellite null does not cut against this yet because every satellite pass so far predates the reported ignition. CORROBORATION • Claimed: Osinttechnical on X, 04:15:38 UTC: the refinery is on fire this morning after reports of a Ukrainian drone attack; locals reported multiple pillars of smoke. One photo attached (town view at dawn, three smoke columns merging into one dark cloud, shot through a window) • X cluster, same morning, same Ukrainian OSINT ecosystem but separate imagery: BohuslavskaKate at 03:57 UTC posted a CCTV-style still of three smoke columns from a low residential vantage; Exilenova+ on Telegram published its own dawn photo (golden-domed church in frame, two to three columns) carried by Ukrainian press by 05:02 UTC. Earliest located reporting is local Samara news at 03:06 UTC (07:06 local): Novokuibyshevsk in smoke, several fire sources in the industrial part of the city • Russian officials: Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev posted the drone danger warning at 01:05 UTC and at about 02:54 UTC stated an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces was being repelled, with air defenses and mobile fire groups working, and told residents not to publish aftermath footage. Rosaviatsiya closed Samara Kurumoch airport under plan Kovyor at about 02:27 UTC, with Ulyanovsk, Kazan, Penza and Saratov also restricted, confirming a mass drone raid across the region that night. Russian operational services had not disclosed the fire's cause or scale as of 04:39 UTC, and regional authorities had not commented on the refinery itself • Ukrainian officials: no General Staff claim yet as of about 05:55 UTC (their strike confirmations usually land later in the day). Context from Wall Street Journal reporting carried in Ukrainian press on 29 Oct: Kyiv had paused refinery strikes for about two weeks under US pressure, with the last large refinery strikes on 18 Oct; multiple outlets frame this attack as the pause ending • Photo check: the claim photo is one of at least three mutually consistent dawn images from different vantage points published inside the same morning window, which is not the signature of a single recycled frame. No earlier use of the claim photo was found in the searches run; the X-served copy carries no EXIF, so its capture time cannot be proven from the file itself, and a frame-level match against the Aug 2026 and Apr 2026 strike imagery could not be completed with the tools available • Status: UNVERIFIED; strongly corroborated by the governor's on-record attack confirmation and multi-vantage local imagery, but no wire confirmation of the refinery fire itself yet, damage unknown, and the satellite check is inconclusive rather than negative WHY IT MATTERS • Novokuibyshevsk makes jet fuel and diesel for the Russian military and has already lost primary processing once this year; a fresh outage lands while Ukraine's reported refinery-strike pause was the live question, so confirmation or a shutdown report moves the Russia products story • The decisive open checks are the post-ignition satellite passes (Terra about 07:10 UTC, VIIRS day cluster from about 08:00 UTC) and any Reuters or General Staff confirmation later today Coordinates: 53.09453, 49.9413 (district-level approximate)

$VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT THERMAL ALERT: Homs Refinery - Syria A single VIIRS NOAA-21 pixel at 40.9 MW was detected at 11:08 UTC (7:08 AM EDT on 10/7/26) on a daytime pass, roughly 1.4 times the 30 MW absolute floor; the site has no baseline yet since it was only added 10/6. The detection sits about 7.8 km northeast of the plant over farmland and the urban fringe of Homs, not on refinery infrastructure. Detection confidence 70-80% (nominal). REFINERY • Owner/operator: Homs Refinery Company (Syrian state) • Location: West of Homs, Syria • Capacity: 120 kbpd • Regional role: One of Syria's two main refineries; covers domestic demand for diesel, heating fuel, gasoline SATELLITE DATA • Sensors: 1 of 4 (VIIRS NOAA-21 only) • Peak FRP: 40.9 MW vs 30 MW floor, no baseline yet (~1.4x the floor) • Confidence: VIIRS nominal • Persistence: No, single daytime pass only • Clustering: No; single pixel ~7.8 km NE of plant over farmland/urban fringe VERIFICATION • Status: UNVERIFIED • News: No corroboration; results are historical fires only (2021 distillation-unit fire, 2020 gas-compressor explosion, 2019 rocket attack) • X chatter: None mentioning a Homs refinery fire • Operator response: None • Responsibility claims: None claimed Coords: 34.7177, 36.6381

VALERO $VLO Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $46.10B (Est. $39.59B) 🟢 🔹 Adj. EPS: $23.90 (Est. $20.97) 🟢; +553% YoY Cash Flow & Returns: 🔹 Adj. Operating Cash Flow: $7.3B 🔹 Payout Ratio: 52% Segment Operating Income: 🔹 Refining: $8.8B 🔹 Renewable Diesel: $353M 🔹 Ethanol: $272M; +49% YoY Announcements: 🔹 The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project was completed during the third quarter, on schedule and within budget. Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 GAAP EPS: $23.89; +577% YoY 🔹 Refining Margin per Barrel: $39.24 🔹 Throughput: 3.0 million barrels per day Key Updates: 🔹 GAAP EPS of $23.89 includes $0.01 of Port Arthur Refinery fire expenses, excluded from adjusted EPS Comments: 🔸 “Our refineries operated at near-record utilization rates, providing a reliable supply of critical transportation fuels during the quarter.”