Economic models of sovereign debt typically treat debt like it is from private sources: Impatient, unforgiving. Our @cristinarellano & @Leo_BarretoV model the reality that "official" lenders step in during a debt crisis leading to very different outcomes.

3-3-3 by @1777studio: a mother and her two children on a summer day that shifts from joy to terror in moments. Set against an unforgiving sea, a film about family, instinct, and the haunting sound of SOS. Featured from fal's hackathon, made with fal.

Over the past month, there has been no shortage of headlines about struggling exchanges. Some of the founders involved are people I’ve crossed paths with. This is a sobering reminder of how unforgiving every crypto downturn can be. Most conversations today focus on which exchange survives or which project fails. But after spending the past month in the US and Europe meeting with Wall Street traders and institutional clients, I came away with a different perspective. What surprised me is that the institutions many people see as the backbone of market liquidity aren’t exactly having an easy time either. Many are going through painful adjustments of their own. A few observations that stayed with me: 1. The scars from last year’s 10.10 market shock are still healing The decline in crypto liquidity wasn’t temporary, but structural. Comparing notes with several institutional trading firms, even the largest venues have generally seen liquidity decline by around 30-40% since the market turmoil. Lower liquidity isn’t just about lower trading volumes. It also raises the cost of trust. Higher volatility, more fragmented liquidity and greater sensitivity to market manipulation have made institutions much more cautious about deploying capital. One lesson has become very clear: don’t overestimate how quickly markets recover, and don’t underestimate how long it takes to rebuild confidence. Everyone is repairing balance sheets. That process takes time. 2. Long-term conviction hasn’t disappeared, but the playbook has changed Despite a difficult market, institutional interest in digital assets hasn’t gone away. If anything, more firms are quietly preparing for the next cycle while prices remain subdued. The biggest change is how they think about crypto. It’s no longer viewed as a standalone speculative asset class. It’s increasingly becoming one component within a broader global portfolio. Multi-asset strategies, tokenized real-world assets, cross-asset collateral and hedged portfolios are becoming standard discussions. That also helps explain why some of the crypto trading volume lost over the past year is being replaced by equities, FX and commodities. Institutions aren’t leaving. They’re evolving. They’re optimizing for more stable, diversified return profiles rather than relying on pure crypto beta. Platforms built only around crypto trading may find it increasingly difficult to meet those changing needs. 3. More than ever, institutions want peace of mind From FTX to the more recent incidents across the industry, every exchange crisis has reinforced the same lesson: safety is the minimum requirement for staying at the table. When I speak with institutions and VIP clients today, the conversation is no longer just about generating alpha. Asset security, risk management and capital efficiency now matter just as much. They don’t want to put all their eggs in one basket. At the same time, they don’t want their capital sitting idle or becoming fragmented across different platforms and accounts. What they are looking for is fairly straightforward: transparent third-party custody, clear risk controls and an account structure that allows capital to move flexibly when opportunities arise. This is also why products such as rToken are attracting more attention from professional investors. The same position can provide market exposure, be pledged to access liquidity and be used as margin. The goal is not to take more risk with the same capital. It is to make every dollar work harder while keeping safety at the centre of the equation. ------- The financial industry has always rewarded scale and trust, and crypto is no different. I’ve often told our team that many offshore exchanges outside the top 10 group may not survive the next few years. But even being among the largest players is no reason to become complacent. Bear markets are uncomfortable, but they have a way of forcing everyone back to fundamentals. The companies that emerge stronger won’t simply be the ones that cut costs or survive another cycle. They’ll be the ones that manage short-term risk while continuing to build infrastructure, discover genuine product-market fit and solve real customer problems. That’s what we’re focused on. And I believe that’s where the industry’s next chapter will be written.

Neymar took a picture of himself drinking coconut 🥥water while his physiotherapist was massaging him. He said he’s afraid to post it because Brazilians are very unforgiving and they’d say “Does this dude think he’s on vacation?” and wouldn’t understand the hard work he puts in.

I want to tell you the story of a young woman who you have probably never heard of. Her name is Mary Anne. She was born on a remote island in Scotland, where life was harsh and unforgiving. On May 2, 1930, when she was 18 years old, she got on a boat headed for Ellis Island to start a new life. She arrived here 11 days later. She wasn't chasing fame, riches, or power. She came for the unique opportunity that America offered. Her sister was already here and had found a job as a maid. So, Mary Anne MacLeod joined her, listing her occupation as “domestic” on her Ellis Island immigration papers. She came to America knowing that she would clean the houses and toilets of the wealthy families in New York. She and her sister lived and worked hard through the worst days of the Depression. And she persevered. Six years later, she married a man named Fred. He was the son of German immigrants. Then In 1942, she became a citizen. Mary and Fred would end up having five children: two daughters and three sons. One of those sons, they named Donald. A woman who came here as a maid, the lowest of jobs, would raise a son who would change the very skyline that greeted his mother when she arrived at Ellis Island. After that, he would become the 45th and 47th President of the United States. There is no other country in the world where a woman can arrive with nothing, and in ONE generation, her son would lead the entire world. For America’s 250th anniversary, I wanted to present President Trump with this painting I did, and then I ran out of time and talent. So, I asked a good friend of mine, Mike Malm, to help me finish it. This is how I envisioned her coming into the United States. Mary Anne MacLeod Trump should be a household name. Her story is everything that is great about America.

WATCH IT TO BELIEVE IT 🌕 Italian photographer Valerio Minato has spent six years chasing an almost impossible composition: capturing Turin's Basilica of Superga, the jagged peak of Monviso, and the setting Moon in exact alignment 🤯 To make the scene truly magical, he needed a slender crescent displaying the rare "Da Vinci Glow"—a subtle, ghostly illumination across the Moon’s dark side caused by sunlight reflecting off Earth's oceans and clouds back into space. The vision began in 2017. Setting up on a hill in Castagneto Po, Minato calculated a vantage point roughly 25 kilometers from the basilica and over 100 kilometers from Monviso. Using a 400mm telephoto lens with an extender, his goal was extreme optical compression—flattening tens of kilometers of terrestrial terrain and 384,000 kilometers of cosmos into a single plane. The celestial mechanics were unforgiving. The Moon’s path only traced that precise azimuth in that exact phase for five or six days each year. From 2017 to 2022, every single attempt was ruined by cloud banks, winter fog, or thermal haze. At 6:52 PM on December 15, 2023, the skies finally cleared and the conditions converged. Because of Earth’s rotation, the alignment would last for a fleeting window of just 30 to 45 seconds. Shooting in the freezing dusk, Minato pressed the shutter the exact moment the lunar crescent embraced the cathedral's dome and alpine silhouette in a razor-sharp line. The resulting symmetry looked so surreal that social media quickly erupted with accusations of generative AI and Photoshop manipulation. To silence the skeptics, Minato released unedited behind-the-scenes video footage showing the Moon physically tracking behind the basilica’s cross in real time. Just ten days later, NASA erased any lingering doubt by selecting the shot as its Astronomy Picture of the Day on Christmas Day, 2023. A cosmic spectacle that lasted barely half a minute, brought to life by six years of persistence, telephoto optics, and orbital mathematics.