Yesterday's discussion about US debt topping $40T and debt to GDP approaching 130% brought out a lot of default fears. So I wrote a short paper on it (link below). The quick version is that 130% isn't a cliff for a country that issues its own currency, and the nuance matters for anyone consuming in USD, holding cash equivalents or govt bonds. Start with the balance sheet. Federal debt held by the public is about $35T. US household net worth is about $196T, roughly 6x GDP and 5x the federal debt. And a big chunk of that wealth is the federal debt itself, sitting in portfolios as safe savings. Federal debt is large, but the asset side of the ledger is massively larger and is the main thing that allows such large govt debts in the first place. The uniquely wealthy and productive asset side is what makes the USA very different from almost every other country in the world. Now the mechanics. The government funds its spending by taxing and borrowing from the wealthiest economy that ever existed. That's a massive collateral and revenue stream supporting the debt. And unlike a household or Greece, it can create the currency its debt is in. So the real risk to a bondholder isn't getting stiffed in nominal terms. It's getting paid back in dollars that buy less. Hyperbolic narratives about default gloss over the balance sheet AND the mechanics that make the USA unique. But debt to income is high and rising, Cullen! Of course it is. That risk is real and should be measured with nuance, not panic. But the historical utility of debt to GDP ratios as a predictor of default is mixed at best and useless at worst. History backs this up. About half of all sovereign defaults since 1970 happened with external debt below 60% of GNP. The UK hit 252% in 1946 and never defaulted on its own currency debt. And we all know the Japan story. Hyperinflations are driven by collapsing output and debts owed in foreign currencies, not by crossing a debt ratio. And the popular "51 of 52 countries defaulted above 130%" stat comes from a report that counts inflation and devaluation as "default." Its own examples list wars, revolutions, droughts and export collapses as the causes, and the actual missed payments were on foreign currency, gold standard or euro debt. Debt to GDP wasn't even the causal factor! And those causal factors aren't what the USA faces today. It doesn't borrow in a foreign currency and it isn't losing a world war. The bigger risk isn't default or hyperinflation. It's that aging, inequality and technology keep dragging on growth and prices, pushing debt higher as the govt fills an inequality gap the private sector won't. That leaves a fragile economy with sticky inflation that's exposed to disinflationary shocks. The distinction is important, and hyperbole doesn't help anyone untangle the risks. For portfolios, default hits all bonds, but persistent above-target inflation hits long bonds the most. So the question isn't whether to own USD or Treasuries. It's how much duration you own, matched to real liabilities, and how to diversify around that for the inflation protection long-term T-bonds can't provide. Full paper:

Yesterday's high and low get respected 65 to 70 percent of the time. Most traders draw the level and forget the other part of the setup. The break matters less than the retest. Price has to come back, test the level as new support or resistance, then confirm before the real move starts. Vincent Desiano built an entire strategy just on this one repeating pattern. Full breakdown free on Chart Academy.

Yesterday’s big Bitcoin rally following the SEC’s tokenized stock announcement makes no sense. The news is actually bearish for Bitcoin, which must now compete with tokenized securities. Digital ownership of tokens backed by profitable, dividend-paying companies is a superior, more reliable store of value than a token backed by nothing. Tokenized stocks offer all of the conveniences of Bitcoin, but without the risk of a decentralized Ponzi scheme collapsing.

Yesterday, Pennsylvania researchers came to DC for the Rally for Medical Research and visited with me on NIH funding. The work happening in the Commonwealth's labs right now is what a cure looks like ten years before anyone calls it one. I'll keep pushing for the NIH funding that gets it there.

Yesterday, the SEC’s Innovation Exemption opened a path for tokenized stocks with full shareholder rights. Synthetics are excluded. At this week’s @avax Summit, @GrahamFergs joined @TheBlockCo to explain Securitize’s native approach: the token is the security itself.