Five months of war, a fifth of the world's oil in the crossfire, and crude never touched $150. The reasons are a lesson in how leverage decays... Analysts called for $150, even $200. Brent peaked near $126 and has spent most of the war closer to $100, briefly kissing the prewar $70. The gap between the forecast and the reality is the whole story of why Iran's chokehold is real but not infinite. Four forces bled the pressure out. China, the biggest buyer, slashed imports to a near-decade low and shifted taxis to electric. American production hit a record 13.93 million barrels a day while the reserves drained. Saudi Arabia pumped oil west out of Yanbu, around the strait. And traders developed headline fatigue, refusing to bet big on a market Trump kept whipsawing with peace talk. Here is the warning inside the calm. Every one of those cushions is finite. Reserves empty, spare barrels vanish, buffers thin. As one veteran trader put it: there's a lot of prompt crude around for now. It may not last. Source: Reuters - @MarioNawfal

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