Inflation is 3.8% and rising on Iran-driven energy costs, but still nowhere near the Biden-era highs.
The chart below shows us where we were four years ago:
Inflation is now under 1%.
I continue to pound the table that deflation is the bigger risk than inflation.
The Fed has screwed this up and should be cutting aggressively right now!
Average inflation by president:
Trump (first term): 1.9% Biden: 5% Trump (second term): 3.4%
The Democrats and the mainstream media refuse to tell the American people the truth.
Global inflation is waking back up, and the central banks that declared victory are being dragged back into the ring.
Australia and Norway have already started hiking to fight sticky prices. The ECB is expected to follow in June. Meanwhile, US CPI is still running hot at 3.8% YoY and trending higher.
The Fed is doing what it always does: waiting for permission from yesterday's data while the market reprices tomorrow's problem.
The cut narrative is running into price reality. Again.
⚡ Inflation runs on energy
Iran war is keeping oil elevated, feeding inflation.
Markets adjusted: cuts in play a couple months ago, now the Federal Reserve likely holds next week.
Energy leads, used cars fall (−3%), rest rising.
Energy + sticky services = no rush to cut.