1/
A few days ago I posted on Threads that I'd be looking into the Vietnamese stock market. Here's my take:
Vietnam is in a pullback phase where the good news has been priced in and foreign capital keeps flowing out.
2/
Where they are
The VN-Index closed around 1,705 last Friday (Oct 16), down from 1,800+ in mid-September and bleeding almost every day since. 52-week range: ~1,578 to 1,937.
3/
The big event: FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam from Frontier to Secondary Emerging on Sept 21, with passive inflows phased in over four tranches through Sept 2027.
Textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news": the index fell once the upgrade went live.
4/
The core tension: foreigners kept selling the whole time the upgrade was pending, with $8B+ in net outflows since early 2025. The index-driven bid comes in small, staggered slices.
Can the next tranches turn the tide? My bet: probably not.
5/
Valuations aren't stretched, at ~12–13x forward P/E.
But concentration is a real structural risk: Vingroup alone is ~21% of the index, and the top 10 make up more than half. Watching the VN-Index is largely watching Vingroup.
6/
Who is Vingroup? ($VIC)
Vietnam's largest private conglomerate, founded by its richest man, Pham Nhat Vuong. Think Wanda + Evergrande + BYD in one:
• Real estate: Vinhomes ($VHM), Vincom Retail, the cash cow
• EVs: VinFast ($VFS), a perennial money-burner kept alive by the group and Vuong himself
• Plus hotels, hospitals and schools
7/
How to get exposure
• $VNM: VanEck Vietnam ETF, the largest, US-listed, has options, down ~12% YTD
• $VNAM: Global X MSCI Vietnam, only ~$30M AUM, thin liquidity
• Local leaders: VIC, VHM, HPG, FPT, VCB
• $VFS: Nasdaq-listed and directly shortable
8/
Can you short it onchain?
It seems that I couldn't find any Vietnam perps on Hyperliquid, so for now shorting mostly means going through US-listed ETFs.
@mablejiang @trasiaxyz @tradexyz
worth picking up?
Not financial advice, just my own research.