Pantheon Macroeconomics warns stocks must regain momentum and bond spreads must tighten to prevent a weaker labor market in 2027. $SPY $HYG $TLT Tightened financial conditions typically take ~6 months to hit the labor market, driven by Fed rate hikes, AI doubts, and Middle East conflict fears. Flat stock prices since May historically point to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the national unemployment rate. Securities-backed borrowing reached 0.5% of personal income in early 2026, but stock stagnation threatens to reverse those loans. Widening high-yield bond spreads already signal higher joblessness, threatening to push unemployment past 4.5%. It could average 4.5% in 2027 if the Fed tightens further after a December rate hike. Does weak stock performance push unemployment higher in 2027?

Informative macroeconomics doom discussion about China The guest is actually reasonable (despite click bait YT title) and Setser knows what he is talking about. At ~20m: strongest pro/con Industrial Maximalism arguments. Role-playing Xi; natsec and industrialism goals contra normie econ view. Good steel-man exercise; should not be dismissed due to bias.

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The fundamental macroeconomic problems are excess savings, excess investment, and growing mountains of unproductive debt. These three things go together. One cannot be solved without solving the other two