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Meeting with investors over the last 2 weeks, I've been pleasantly surprised to hear a bit of bearishness. This is especially true of the macro community (they are having their own 'Situational Awareness' moment, after all). The consistent message is that there is no chance of a market-acceptable resolution to the Iran conflict (all the consultants agree too). That means higher oil, higher inflation, an unfriendly Fed, etc. But it's so one-way I'm starting to smell a rat. One very sharp CIO, who intellectually agrees there's essentially zero chance of a deal, told a group something like: 'my head tells me no resolution, my gut says otherwise.' I love a good gut feeling, so of course I agree. We've even seen the typical 'escalate to de-escalate' rhetoric, and POTUS using the 8 Mile technique of preempting the other side's best line ('no deal before the midterms'). Hmm. A deal would obviously matter a lot to the market and imho would trigger an 'everything rally' (QQQ, you'll always have my heart, but I am weak and SPX vol is just too low). Yields kept marching higher this week even with oil down, but don't let that fool you into thinking anything other than the war has been driving rates of late. It's easy to 'bully' bonds lower when no one is willing to step in ahead of a geopolitical binary: 'deal or no deal!?' If war risk fades, yields can move a bit lower but, MOST IMPORTANTLY, rate vol will collapse. And lower rate vol has historically been a remarkable panacea. Add in the Fed's non-guidance guidance this week (lol) and we might have ourselves a little risk-on cocktail. God forbid ANT surprises to the upside at their analyst day in a few weeks…

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Meeting and discussion between Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and David Milliband, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Meeting with NVIDIA Sr. Director went great Key takeaways: - the industry has gotten the message. Everyone is running to support - we are still “very early”. Only 2% penetration globally for Ai users. “Instinct and other personal assistants are exploding usage” - NVIDIA leadership is working 6-7 days a week right now unlocking more capacity and solving key problems - energy needs exploding not just for data centers, but for all domestic manufacturing including manufacturing racks, components, tools, and fabs - re-industrializing America is well underway - there’s still so much work just to enable Vera Rubin, let alone Vera Rubin ultra and later, Feynman. The amount of strategic and “insanely hard” work to enable these ramps is not to be taken for granted - benchmarks like what we saw with Jalapeño from OpenAI recently are only scratching the surface of evaluating alternative solutions to NVIDIA. Need to evaluate at the system (rack, pod, cluster, multi cluster) scale - it’s not just about working insanely hard at NVIDIA, the team really feels they’re contributing to history. Which seems to be the primary motivator for them since many in the organization no longer need to work for money - there is no “biggest bottleneck”, the bottleneck is shifting and present at multiple places at once in time then appearing somewhere else. It’s whack-a-mole - Physical AI is next, and we have not even begun with it hardly at all. But Physical AI will take many multiples the amount of compute that we currently have