OIL EXTENDED ITS DECLINE, WITH BRENT AROUND $103.50 A BARREL AND WTI NEAR $99.79, AS MARKETS MONITORED SIGNS OF IMPROVING ENERGY FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WITH RECENT EFFORTS TO RESTORE SAUDI EXPORT CAPACITY AND INCREASED TANKER MOVEMENTS EASING SOME SUPPLY CONCERNS EVEN AS THE BROADER IRAN CONFLICT KEEPS OIL MARKETS VOLATILE.

Oil markets are navigating a new wave of uncertainty. Are you prepared for what comes next? Join Kpler experts Homayoun Falakshahi, Andon Pavlov and Matt Stanley for Oil Insight: Navigating uncertainty, a focused briefing on the latest developments shaping crude and refined products markets. From Middle East disruption and US–Iran tensions to shifting supply, demand, flows, pricing and margins, our experts will unpack what’s happening now — and the key signals to watch next. Register now and join us live:

Oil markets just flipped. Fast. Mid-July looked comfortable. U.S.-Iran deal done, Hormuz was humming, Atlantic exports at records, 1.3bn barrels floating. Markets actually relaxed. Then the rug pulled. Iranian flows are softening, Atlantic Basin momentum fading... and traders are still pricing like it's July 13th. That gap between market assumptions and physical reality? That's where the pain lives. Prices aren't reflecting what's coming. Yet. Source: CIG on TG / Writer: Oliver

Oil markets are moving onchain, and researchers are starting to track them there. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies drew on our on-chain data to study oil perpetual futures on Hyperliquid. Their paper used it to chart open interest and trading volume. Grateful to see our data supporting serious energy research.

Oil markets bet that Trump would chicken out on Iran - and they won. ROI's @ronbousso1 breaks down why this risky call proved correct and what challenges could lie ahead

Oil markets could well look less placid in the coming months, with Asia, America and Europe unwilling or unable to use their reserves. Global commercial stocks will not fill the gap

Global oil markets are facing a historic loss of diesel supply: Diesel supply from the Middle East dropped by -835,000 barrels per day on average between March and August 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to Vortexa estimates. At the same time, Russian diesel supply fell -377,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, Kpler estimates diesel supply was down -750,000 barrels per day in the Middle East over the same period and -361,000 barrels per day in Russia, while Energy Aspects estimates declines of -733,000 and -307,000 barrels per day, respectively. This puts the average estimated diesel supply loss at -772,667 barrels per day in the Middle East and -348,333 barrels per day in Russia, or -1.1 million combined. Furthermore, Russian diesel supply plunged -615,000 barrels per day YoY on average in July and August, following Russia's diesel-export ban. The global diesel market crisis is deepening.

Global oil markets are showing fresh signs of strain after months of war, as conflict-weary traders, anxious buyers, and under-pressure executives huddle in Singapore for the region’s main industry gathering

Are oil markets too complacent about the Iran war? Sasha Polakow-Suransky, FT executive opinion editor, speaks with Emma Ashford, Stimson Center senior fellow and foreign policy columnist, about Washington’s latest Iran sanctions.

SUSPICIOUS OIL TRADES BEFORE IRAN WAR HEADLINES TOPPED $7B: REUTERS Well-timed bets on oil markets ahead of major Iran war announcements totaled at least $7 billion, far more extensive than previously reported, according to Reuters. The trades, placed across crude, gasoline, and diesel futures in March and April, spanned multiple exchanges and contracts, raising fresh scrutiny over possible insider positioning around market-moving developments.