I overestimated the difficulty of orchestrating massive numbers of agents. I assumed research would be needed to build working organizations of agents, but they self-organize very well (and politely)
Here is a Fable coordinator in Claude Projects passing messages between agents.
Sam Altman says he overestimated how fast AI would disrupt the economy.
"We've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."
Americans tend to overestimate voters’ prejudices against women and ethnic minorities. Democrats are particularly prone to this - which ironically makes them less likely to support female or minority candidates due to concerns about electability.