Price dictates sentiment. It's easy to get carried away. Factors that haven't gone away: > Brent oil above $100 > 10 Yr Treasury yield @ 4.95% > US / Iran geopolitical tension > Anticipated further rate hikes Despite all that, AI is inevitable. Long: $IREN $MU

Price controls destroy supply. The EU proved it again in 2022 when Brussels capped wholesale electricity and gas prices after the Nord Stream sabotage sent spot prices past 700 euros per megawatt-hour in August. Generators across Germany, France, and Spain did exactly what any rational producer does when a price ceiling sits below their marginal cost: they cut output or pulled supply off the market entirely. French nuclear operators throttled dispatch. Spanish gas-fired plants ran below capacity. The supply Brussels wanted to guarantee, was chased away. You paid for this twice. Your electricity bill carried emergency government subsidies funded by debt, and your employer absorbed industrial rationing that cut production schedules through winter 2022-23. BASF curtailed ammonia output at Ludwigshafen. German steel producers ran blast furnaces at reduced rates. That destroyed real economic output, not just spreadsheet entries. The mechanism is always the same. Prices coordinate information that no committee possesses. When a price spike signals genuine scarcity, producers invest, consumers conserve, and the shortage resolves. Cap the price and you blind every actor in the market simultaneously, guaranteeing the shortage deepens exactly when it hurts most. Brussels decided that politicians allocating energy through administrative rationing beats producers and consumers responding to real signals. Germany's industrial output contracted 0.4 percent in Q4 2022. The price cap paralyzed the market. Ironically, government intervention to "solve" the crises did more damage than the crises itself, as always.

Price ceilings don't manage markets, they destroy them. In 1946 the US meat market collapsed because of it. The Office of Price Administration set beef ceiling prices during World War II. Ranchers and meatpackers adapted: some held cattle rather than sell at a loss, others shifted product to black markets, and slaughter volumes dropped. The OPA briefly lifted controls in mid-1946 under pressure. Beef flooded back into stores almost immediately. Then Congress, drowning in constituent complaints about inflation, reimposed ceilings in August 1946. Slaughter collapsed within weeks. By October 1946, beef virtually disappeared from American grocery store shelves. You could walk into a butcher shop in Chicago or New York and find nothing. Scarcity was manufactured entirely by Washington bureaucrats setting prices below what producers needed to cover costs. Mises explained the mechanism precisely: a price ceiling creates a shortage, which produces political pressure for rationing and further controls, spiraling into comprehensive economic disorganization. The OPA ran that experiment in real time on the American food supply. President Truman ended meat controls on November 9, 1946. Beef returned within days. The supply existed the entire time. Ranchers and packers simply refused to sell at confiscatory prices, and they were correct to refuse. Coercive price suppression causes economic destruction, and 1946 proved it at the grocery counter.

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Price risk exists at every link in the ag supply chain: planting, harvest, transport, delivery. Derek Sammann of CME Group and James Heneghan of @WeAreLDC provide a grounded look at how futures and options markets work alongside physical grain infrastructure to move commodities from farm to global export using CME Group benchmark pricing.