HSBC Raises $NVDA PT to $325 from $295 - Buy; ER Preview
Analyst comments: "At its upcoming 1QFY27 results announcement on May 20, we expect NVIDIA to report 1QFY27 revenue of USD81.1 billion, 4%/3% higher than management guidance and Visible Alpha consensus estimates of USD78.0 billion/USD78.6 billion. We also expect 2QFY27E revenue of USD91.1 billion versus consensus estimate of USD85.6 billion, implying another “beat and raise” quarter. We also raise our FY28E EPS by 27% to USD13.01, 16% above consensus of USD11.20, on higher FY28E data center revenue of USD528 billion versus consensus of USD465.3 billion, on the back of an upward revision to chip-on-wafer-on-substrate allocation from 900,000 to 1.1 million wafers.
Over the past five years, all major NVIDIA stock price movements have been led by a combination of its evolving AI product roadmap — starting with significant ASP pricing power with first-generation AI GPUs, A100 and H100 — driving significant earnings upside along with consistent “beat and raise” financial results. However, since the buzz around sovereign AI and the opportunity from neoclouds, no new narrative has emerged, and NVIDIA shares have underperformed the SOX over the last six months despite having two GTC events and two sets of financial results that beat estimates and raised expectations. Hence, we believe AI GPU earnings momentum and its upcoming Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra product roadmap have become less meaningful narratives for significant re-rating or share price upside potential.
Despite the ever-increasing CAPEX trend by CSPs that shows no signs of abating, NVIDIA now has to share the CAPEX with memory makers, AI networking, and server CPU vendors. Hence, NVIDIA needs to show evidence of diversifying its non-CSP customer base to fuel its AI GPU momentum. New TAM opportunities via agentic AI server CPUs and its recent optics-related deals could also potentially be emerging narratives that could lead to more significant earnings revisions or re-rating."
Analyst: Frank Lee
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Evercore ISI Raises $DELL PT to $270 from $240 - Outperform
Analyst comments: "We’re attending Dell World this week, DELL’s annual user conference in Las Vegas, NV. The conference kicked off this morning with a keynote from Founder and CEO Michael Dell that featured several guest speakers, including NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. The keynote combined new product, model, and partnership announcements with enterprise customer testimonials from Eli Lilly’s CIO and Honeywell’s CTO, positioning DELL’s AI Factory as the infrastructure foundation for enterprises moving from AI experimentation to production-scale agentic AI and inference.
Notably, DELL disclosed that the Dell AI Factory now serves more than 5,000 customers, up from ~4,000 post the January-quarter print and ~3,000 at Dell World 2025. Michael Dell added that DELL continues to be the enterprise one-stop shop for all things AI, given DELL’s engineering prowess and ability to deliver “hundreds of AI racks a week” to a given customer, with systems up and running in hours and creating immediate, ROI-generating outcomes.
This was reinforced by the PowerEdge XE9812 launch, which adds a turnkey, rack-scale platform to DELL’s AI portfolio, built on NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 for next-generation agentic AI and inference workloads, offering 10x lower cost per token versus Blackwell for agentic AI inferencing. According to DELL’s own survey, 67% of AI workloads are already running outside the public cloud, and 88% of respondents are running at least one AI workload on-premise.
Net/net: We continue to view enterprise AI adoption as the next leg of growth for DELL’s ISG segment. DELL remains well-positioned to monetize the enterprise leg of the AI infrastructure build, with deepening NVIDIA co-engineering, broadened model partnerships — Google, OpenAI, xAI, Palantir, and Reflection — and a new deskside agentic AI category extending the AI Factory franchise from rack to desktop."
Analyst: Amit Daryanani
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